The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions in regional-scale chemistry transport models (CTMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs). The method is based on the meteorology in the models and gridded inventories. We use the dynamical method to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of ammonia emissions across part of Europe and study how these emissions are related to geographical and year-to-year variations in atmospheric temperature alone. For simplicity we focus on the emission from a storage facility related to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily vary by 20% for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France. (2)Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20 %. (3) Climate change may increase emissions by 0–40% in central to northern Europe.(4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK and France) can be reduced by using a dynamical methodology for calculating emissions. Acting together these four factors can cause substantial uncertainties in emission. Emissions are generally considered among the largest uncertainties in the model calculations made with CTM and CCM models. Efforts to reduce uncertainties are therefore highly relevant.It is therefore recommended that both CCMs and CTMs implement a dynamical methodology for simulating ammonia emissions in a similar way as for biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOCs) – a method that has been used for more than a decade in CTMs. Finally, the climate penalty on ammonia emissions should be taken into account at the policy level such as the NEC and IPPC directives

The governance of innovation diffusion – a socio-technical analysis of energy policy

This paper describes a dynamic price mechanism to coordinate electric power generation from micro Combined Heat and Power (micro-CHP) systems in a network of households. It is assumed that the households are prosumers, i.e. both producers and consumers of electricity. The control is done on household level in a completely distributed manner. Avoiding a centralized controller both eases computation complexity and preserves communication structure in the network. Local information is used to decide to turn on or off the micro-CHP, but through price signals between the prosumers the network as a whole operates in a cooperative way

Ammonia emissions from deciduous forest after leaf fall

The understanding of biochemical feedback mechanisms in the climate system is lacking knowledge in relation to bi-directional ammonia (NH3) exchange between natural ecosystems and the atmosphere. We therefore study the atmospheric NH3 fluxes during a 25-day period during autumn 2010 (21 October to 15 November) for the Danish beech forest Lille Bøgeskov to address the hypothesis that NH3 emissions occur from deciduous forests in relation to leaf fall. This is accomplished by using observations of vegetation status, NH3 fluxes and model calculations. Vegetation status was observed using plant area index (PAI) and leaf area index (LAI). NH3 fluxes were measured using the relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) method. The REA-based NH3 concentrations were compared to NH3 denuder measurements. Model calculations of the atmospheric NH3 concentration were obtained with the Danish Ammonia MOdelling System (DAMOS). The relative contribution from the forest components to the atmospheric NH3 flux was assessed using a simple two-layer bi-directional canopy compensation point model. A total of 57.7% of the fluxes measured showed emission and 19.5% showed deposition. A clear tendency of the flux going from deposition of −0.25 ± 0.30 μg NH3-N m−2 s−1 to emission of up to 0.67 ± 0.28 μg NH3-N m−2 s−1 throughout the measurement period was found. In the leaf fall period (23 October to 8 November), an increase in the atmospheric NH3 concentrations was related to the increasing forest NH3 flux. Following leaf fall, the magnitude and temporal structure of the measured NH3 emission fluxes could be adequately reproduced with the bi-directional resistance model; it suggested the forest ground layer (soil and litter) to be the main contributing component to the NH3 emissions. The modelled concentration from DAMOS fits well the measured concentrations before leaf fall, but during and after leaf fall, the modelled concentrations are too low. The results indicate that the missing contribution to atmospheric NH3 concentration from vegetative surfaces related to leaf fall are of a relatively large magnitude. We therefore conclude that emissions from deciduous forests are important to include in model calculations of atmospheric NH3 for forest ecosystems. Finally, diurnal variations in the measured NH3 concentrations were related to meteorological conditions, forest phenology and the spatial distribution of local anthropogenic NH3 sources. This suggests that an accurate description of ammonia fluxes over forest ecosystems requires a dynamic description of atmospheric and vegetation processes

Identifying Urban Sources as Cause of Elevated Grass Pollen Concentrations using GIS and Remote Sensing

We examine here the hypothesis that during flowering, the grass pollen concentrations at a specific site reflect the distribution of grass pollen sources within a few kilometres of this site.We perform this analysis on data from a measurement campaign in the city of Aarhus (Denmark) using three pollen traps and by comparing these observations with a novel inventory of grass pollen sources. The source inventory is based on a new methodology developed for urbanscale grass pollen sources. The new methodology is believed to be generally applicable for the European area, as it relies on commonly available remote sensing data combined with management information for local grass areas. The inventory has identified a number of grass pollen source areas present within the city domain. The comparison of the measured pollen concentrations with the inventory shows that the atmospheric concentrations of grass pollen in the urban zone reflect the source areas identified in the inventory, and that the pollen sources that are found to affect the pollen levels are located near or within the city domain. The results also show that during days with peak levels of pollen concentrations there is no correlation between the three urban traps and an operational trap located just 60 km away. This finding suggests that during intense flowering, the grass pollen concentration mirrors the local source distribution and is thus a local-scale phenomenon. Model simulations aimed at assessing population exposure to pollen levels are therefore recommended to take into account both local sources and local atmospheric transport, and not to rely only on describing regional to long-range transport of pollen. The derived pollen source inventory can be entered into local-scale atmospheric transport models in combination with other components that simulate pollen release in order to calculate urban-scale variations in the grass pollen load. The gridded inventory with a resolution of 14m is therefore made available as supplementary material to this paper, and the verifying grass pollen observations are additionally available in tabular form

Spatial, Temporal and Vertical Distribution of Ammonia Concentrations Over Europe – Comparing a Static and Dynamic Approach With WRF-Chem

The study focuses on the application of a dynamic ammonia emission into the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and the influence on the simulated ammonia concentrations and the overall model performance. We have focused on agricultural ammonia sources and have analysed both hourly and daily patterns of ammonia emissions and concentrations at measurement sites located in agricultural areas or influenced by this activity. For selected episodes, we have also investigated the 3-D patterns of the ammonia concentrations in the atmosphere. The application of the dynamic ammonia emission into the WRF-Chem model (the “DYNAMIC” simulation) results in an improvement of the modelled daily ammonia concentrations in comparison to a static approach (the “BASE” simulation), which is currently widely used in chemical transport models. In the case of hourly resolution, we have observed an improvement for the DYNAMIC approach for the winter and autumn seasons, but for the entire year the modelled hourly ammonia peaks are shifted toward the afternoon hours if compared with measurements. This study indicates that the current description of the diurnal cycle of the ammonia concentration from fields is not accurate and more research is needed in order to improve the processes that describe the emission from fertilised fields. The results suggest that the governing processes in relation to the diurnal cycle are the atmospheric mixing and the emission strength. Therefore,an improved description of the diurnal profile of ammonia concentrations within atmospheric models requires a better description of the planetary boundary layer height and a stronger daily pattern of ammonia emission, e.g. through increased evaporation or increased fluxes from the surface

Ammonia Concentrations Over Europe – Application of the WRF-Chem Model Supported With Dynamic Emission

The study focuses on the application of a static and dynamic ammonia emission based on a Europe-wide default setting into the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and the influence on the simulated ammonia concentrations and the overall model performance. The WRF-Chem model was run twice for the entire Europe at a spatial resolution of 36 x 36 km for the year 2012. In the first simulation we used a static emission approach (the “BASE” simulation), whereas in the second simulation, dynamic ammonia emissions were used (the “DYNAMIC” simulation). Both simulations underestimate measured concentrations of NH3 for all seasons, have similar NMGE (about 0.7 μg m-3) and modelled hourly ammonia peaks are shifted towards the afternoon hours if compared with measurements. However, for all temporal resolutions, normalised mean gross error in winter and summer is lower for DYNAMIC than for BASE. The DYNAMIC simulation also generally gives worse performance in spring for each temporal resolution. For further improvement of the modelled ammonia concentrations with WRF-Chem we suggest to use a nested approach with higher spatial resolution, which will lead to better separation of the ammonia source regions from surrounding areas, and take into account national practice and regulations in the emission model, eventually only in the nested model domain

Wind dispersal of genetically modified pollen from oilseed rape and rye fields

The increasing use of genetically modified plants (GMP) has opened up for a discussion about the problems related to the co-existence of GM and non-GM crops and especially the consequences for organic farming. One of the objectives of DARCOF project TOPRO (Tool for protection against contamination by GMO) has been to develop specific modelling tools, which can be used for the prediction of dispersal of GM pollen under different conditions and for investigating measures to limit the GM dispersal to organic fields

Modelling atmospheric transport of ?-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Northern Hemispherewith a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

International audienceThe Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The ?-isomer of the pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (?-HCH) is used as tracer in the model development. The structure of the model and processes included are described in detail. The results from a model simulation showing the atmospheric transport for the years 1991 to 1998 are presented and evaluated against measurements. The annual averaged atmospheric concentration of ?-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model; however, the shorter-term average concentration for most of the stations is not well captured. This indicates that the present simple surface description needs to be refined to get a better description of the air-surface exchange processes of POPs

Modelling atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants in the Northern Hemisphere with a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

International audienceThe Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The ?-isomer of the pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (?-HCH) is used as tracer in the model development. The structure of the model and processes included are described in detail. The results from a model simulation showing the atmospheric transport for the years 1991 to 1998 are presented and evaluated against measurements. The annual averaged atmospheric concentration of ?-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model; however, the shorter-term average concentration for most of the stations is not well captured. This indicates that the present simple surface description needs to be refined to get a better description of the air-surface exchange proceses of POPs

Historische en hedendaagse systeem-innovaties in de glastuinbouw en varkenshouderij: Een innovatie-sociologische analyse

Transities en systeem-innovaties in de landbouw zijn het thema van dit rapport. Klimaatverandering, energiegebruik, methaan-emissies, dierenwelzijn, economische concurrentie, voedselschandalen (BSE, dioxine), verzuring, stankproblemen, landschapsinrichting, en rurale ontwikkeling zijn enkele van de socio-economische ontwikkelingen die druk creëren op het landbouwsysteem. Veel van deze ontwikkelingen kunnen (waarschijnlijk) niet binnen de grenzen van het bestaande systeem het hoofd geboden worden. Daarom is het thema van transities naar nieuwe systemen (systeem-innovatie) gestegen op de maatschappelijke en politieke agenda. Wat betreft empirische focus gaat dit rapport over transities in twee sectoren: glastuinbouw en varkenshouderij. Voor beide sectoren is een studie gedaan van historische transities en een studie van contemporaine transities ‘in the making’. Hedentendaage, staat de glastuinbouw onder druk wegens hoog energiegebruik (en dus CO2 emissies en klimaatverandering), vooral gerelateerd aan ruimteverwarming met gas. De varkenssector staat onder druk wat betreft dierenwelzijn (o.a. ruimtegebruik in stallen, onverdoofd castreren van biggetjes), internationale economische concurrentie, en mestproblematiek (verzuring, stank). In reactie op deze druk, zijn in beide sectoren radicale innovatietrajecten gestart die systeemcomponenten aanzienlijk veranderen