A Multicriteria Analysis of Groundwater Development Pathways in Three River Basins in Sub-Saharan Africa

Reliance on groundwater in Sub-Saharan Africa is growing and expected to rise as surface water resource variability increases under climate change. Major questions remain about how groundwater will be used, and who informs these decisions. We represent different visions of groundwater use by ‘pathways’: politically and environmentally embedded socio-technological regimes for governing and managing groundwater systems. We presented policy actors (9 sets), development and research stakeholders (4 sets), and water users (6 sets) in three river basins in Ethiopia, Niger and Tanzania with information on the social and environmental impacts of six ‘Groundwater Development Pathways’, before gathering their opinions on each, through Multicriteria Mapping (MCM). Participants preferred pathways of low-intensity use, incorporating multiple agricultural, pastoral and domestic purposes, to high-intensity single-use pathways. Water availability and environmental sustainability, including water quality, were central concerns. Participants recognised that all groundwater uses potentially impinge upon one another affecting both the quantity and quality of abstracted water. Across participant groups there was ambiguity about what the most important water use was; each expressed demands for more detailed, certain modelling data. Water users preferred community or municipal-scale management regimes, perceiving that water quality was more likely to be safeguarded by institutions at these levels, whereas policy and development actors preferred individual-scale management, viewed as more efficient in terms of operation and maintenance. We conclude that MCM, combined with more detailed modelling, can provide an effective framework for policy actors to understand other stakeholders’ perspectives on groundwater development futures, enabling equitable, inclusive decision-making and governance

Risiko og vanningsinvesteringer i en tørrlands økonomi

The thesis consists of an introduction and four independent papers. It investigates the role of production risk and irrigation investment on farm households’ production decisions, efficiency, and income. Paper I analyses whether land rental contract choice depends on poverty, capital constraints, production risk and random shocks. It shows that poor households experiencing random shocks are more likely to choose fixed rent contracts as a distress response to shocks implying that fixed rent contracts may be used to meet immediate needs. It also revealed that fixed rent contracts are preferred when production risk is low (such as in irrigated land), while sharecropping is more likely when production risk is high. Paper II examines how production risk, access to irrigation, and food deficits affect households’ fertilizer adoption. A positive and significant synergy exists between irrigation and fertilizer use, while a negative relationship exists between risk and fertilizer adoption. A higher probability of households being food self sufficient was negatively associated with the probability of fertilizer use. Similarly, food deficit households predicted to be so were less likely to use fertilizer. However, the food deficit households who decided to use fertilizer, used significantly higher amount of fertilizer than households that did not face food deficit. Paper III assesses the technical efficiency of farmers on irrigated and rain-fed land. It also assesses whether irrigation expands the smallholders’ production frontier, and whether there is a room to increase agricultural production given the current input use and technology. Results indicate that irrigation has expanded the production frontier, but farmers are more efficient on their rain-fed plots than irrigated plots suggesting that that there is huge untapped potential in irrigated agriculture. Paper IV assesses the income effects of irrigation investments and finds that irrigation investment has significantly improved household income and reduced poverty. Groundwater-based irrigation projects have higher income effect than micro-dam and river diversion suggesting that the use of water-saving technologies (such as pressurized tube irrigation and manually operated shallow-well) may reduce water losses due to run-off and excess percolation

Risiko og vanningsinvesteringer i en tørrlands økonomi

The thesis consists of an introduction and four independent papers. It investigates the role of production risk and irrigation investment on farm households’ production decisions, efficiency, and income. Paper I analyses whether land rental contract choice depends on poverty, capital constraints, production risk and random shocks. It shows that poor households experiencing random shocks are more likely to choose fixed rent contracts as a distress response to shocks implying that fixed rent contracts may be used to meet immediate needs. It also revealed that fixed rent contracts are preferred when production risk is low (such as in irrigated land), while sharecropping is more likely when production risk is high. Paper II examines how production risk, access to irrigation, and food deficits affect households’ fertilizer adoption. A positive and significant synergy exists between irrigation and fertilizer use, while a negative relationship exists between risk and fertilizer adoption. A higher probability of households being food self sufficient was negatively associated with the probability of fertilizer use. Similarly, food deficit households predicted to be so were less likely to use fertilizer. However, the food deficit households who decided to use fertilizer, used significantly higher amount of fertilizer than households that did not face food deficit. Paper III assesses the technical efficiency of farmers on irrigated and rain-fed land. It also assesses whether irrigation expands the smallholders’ production frontier, and whether there is a room to increase agricultural production given the current input use and technology. Results indicate that irrigation has expanded the production frontier, but farmers are more efficient on their rain-fed plots than irrigated plots suggesting that that there is huge untapped potential in irrigated agriculture. Paper IV assesses the income effects of irrigation investments and finds that irrigation investment has significantly improved household income and reduced poverty. Groundwater-based irrigation projects have higher income effect than micro-dam and river diversion suggesting that the use of water-saving technologies (such as pressurized tube irrigation and manually operated shallow-well) may reduce water losses due to run-off and excess percolation