An Integrated Clinico-Metabolomic Model Improves Prediction of Death in Sepsis

Sepsis is a common cause of death, but outcomes in individual patients are difficult to predict. Elucidating the molecular processes that differ between sepsis patients who survive and those who die may permit more appropriate treatments to be deployed. We examined the clinical features, and the plasma metabolome and proteome of patients with and without community-acquired sepsis, upon their arrival at hospital emergency departments and 24 hours later. The metabolomes and proteomes of patients at hospital admittance who would die differed markedly from those who would survive. The different profiles of proteins and metabolites clustered into fatty acid transport and β-oxidation, gluconeogenesis and the citric acid cycle. They differed consistently among several sets of patients, and diverged more as death approached. In contrast, the metabolomes and proteomes of surviving patients with mild sepsis did not differ from survivors with severe sepsis or septic shock. An algorithm derived from clinical features together with measurements of seven metabolites predicted patient survival. This algorithm may help to guide the treatment of individual patients with sepsis

Modelling airway geometry as stock market data using Bayesian changepoint detection

Numerous lung diseases, such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), exhibit dilation of the airways. Accurate measurement of dilatation enables assessment of the progression of disease. Unfortunately the combination of image noise and airway bifurcations causes high variability in the profiles of cross-sectional areas, rendering the identification of affected regions very difficult. Here we introduce a noise-robust method for automatically detecting the location of progressive airway dilatation given two profiles of the same airway acquired at different time points. We propose a probabilistic model of abrupt relative variations between profiles and perform inference via Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method on two datasets; (i) images of healthy airways with simulated dilatation; (ii) pairs of real images of IPF-affected airways acquired at 1 year intervals. Our model is able to detect the starting location of airway dilatation with an accuracy of 2.5 mm on simulated data. The experiments on the IPF dataset display reasonable agreement with radiologists. We can compute a relative change in airway volume that may be useful for quantifying IPF disease progression.<br/