Sharp detection of smooth signals in a high-dimensional sparse matrix with indirect observations

We consider a matrix-valued Gaussian sequence model, that is, we observe a sequence of high-dimensional $M \times N$ matrices of heterogeneous Gaussian random variables $x_{ij,k}$ for $i \in\{1,...,M\}$, $j \in \{1,...,N\}$ and $k \in \mathbb{Z}$. The standard deviation of our observations is \ep k^s for some \ep >0 and $s \geq 0$. We give sharp rates for the detection of a sparse submatrix of size $m \times n$ with active components. A component $(i,j)$ is said active if the sequence $\{x_{ij,k}\}_k$ have mean $\{\theta_{ij,k}\}_k$ within a Sobolev ellipsoid of smoothness $\tau >0$ and total energy $\sum_k \theta^2_{ij,k}$ larger than some r^2_\ep. Our rates involve relationships between $m,\, n, \, M$ and $N$ tending to infinity such that $m/M$, $n/N$ and \ep tend to 0, such that a test procedure that we construct has asymptotic minimax risk tending to 0. We prove corresponding lower bounds under additional assumptions on the relative size of the submatrix in the large matrix of observations. Except for these additional conditions our rates are asymptotically sharp. Lower bounds for hypothesis testing problems mean that no test procedure can distinguish between the null hypothesis (no signal) and the alternative, i.e. the minimax risk for testing tends to 1

Bayesian optimal adaptive estimation using a sieve prior

We derive rates of contraction of posterior distributions on nonparametric models resulting from sieve priors. The aim of the paper is to provide general conditions to get posterior rates when the parameter space has a general structure, and rate adaptation when the parameter space is, e.g., a Sobolev class. The conditions employed, although standard in the literature, are combined in a different way. The results are applied to density, regression, nonlinear autoregression and Gaussian white noise models. In the latter we have also considered a loss function which is different from the usual l2 norm, namely the pointwise loss. In this case it is possible to prove that the adaptive Bayesian approach for the l2 loss is strongly suboptimal and we provide a lower bound on the rate.Comment: 33 pages, 2 figure

Bayesian inference for CoVaR

Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting market participants' risk capital. Commonly used risk management tools fail to account for potential spillover effects among institutions because they provide individual risk assessment. We contribute to analyse the interdependence effects of extreme events providing an estimation tool for evaluating the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) defined as the Value-at-Risk of an institution conditioned on another institution being under distress. In particular, our approach relies on Bayesian quantile regression framework. We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm exploiting the Asymmetric Laplace distribution and its representation as a location-scale mixture of Normals. Moreover, since risk measures are usually evaluated on time series data and returns typically change over time, we extend the CoVaR model to account for the dynamics of the tail behaviour. Application on U.S. companies belonging to different sectors of the Standard and Poor's Composite Index (S&P500) is considered to evaluate the marginal contribution to the overall systemic risk of each individual institutio

A test of goodness-of-fit for the copula densities

We consider the problem of testing hypotheses on the copula density from $n$ bi-dimensional observations. We wish to test the null hypothesis characterized by a parametric class against a composite nonparametric alternative. Each density under the alternative is separated in the $L_2$-norm from any density lying in the null hypothesis. The copula densities under consideration are supposed to belong to a range of Besov balls. According to the minimax approach, the testing problem is solved in an adaptive framework: it leads to a $\log\log$ term loss in the minimax rate of testing in comparison with the non-adaptive case. A smoothness-free test statistic that achieves the minimax rate is proposed. The lower bound is also proved. Besides, the empirical performance of the test procedure is demonstrated with both simulated and real data

Parametric estimation in noisy blind deconvolution model: a new estimation procedure

In a parametric framework, the paper is devoted to the study of a new estimation procedure for the inverse filter and the level noise in a complex noisy blind discrete deconvolution model. Our estimation method is a consequence of the sharp exploitation of the specifical properties of the Hankel forms. The distribution of the input signal is also estimated. The strong consistency and the asymptotic distribution of all estimates are established. A consistent simulation study is added in order to demonstrate empirically the computational performance of our estimation procedures.Comment: Submitted to the Electronic Journal of Statistics (http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Bayesian Tail Risk Interdependence Using Quantile Regression

Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequences associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting market participants’ risk capital. Commonly used risk management tools fail to account for potential spillover effects among institutions because they only provide individual risk assessment. We contribute to the analysis of the interdependence effects of extreme events, providing an estimation tool for evaluating the co-movement Value-at-Risk. In particular, our approach relies on a Bayesian quantile regression framework. We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, exploiting the representation of the Asymmetric Laplace distribution as a location-scale mixture of Normals. Moreover, since risk measures are usually evaluated on time series data and returns typically change over time, we extend the model to account for the dynamics of the tail behaviour. We apply our model to a sample of U.S. companies belonging to different sectors of the Standard and Poor’s Composite Index and we provide an evaluation of the marginal contribution to the overall risk of each individual institutio