Constraints on the long-period moment-dip tradeoff for the Tohoku earthquake

Since the work of Kanamori and Given (1981), it has been recognized that shallow, pure dip-slip earthquakes excite long-period surface waves such that it is difficult to independently constrain the moment (M_0) and the dip (δ) of the source mechanism, with only the product M_0 sin(2δ) being well constrained. Because of this, it is often assumed that the primary discrepancies between the moments of shallow, thrust earthquakes are due to this moment-dip tradeoff. In this work, we quantify how severe this moment-dip tradeoff is depending on the depth of the earthquake, the station distribution, the closeness of the mechanism to pure dip-slip, and the quality of the data. We find that both long-period Rayleigh and Love wave modes have moment-dip resolving power even for shallow events, especially when stations are close to certain azimuths with respect to mechanism strike and when source depth is well determined. We apply these results to USGS W phase inversions of the recent M9.0 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and estimate the likely uncertainties in dip and moment associated with the moment- dip tradeoff. After discussing some of the important sources of moment and dip error, we suggest two methods for potentially improving this uncertainty

Source Inversion of the W-Phase: Real-time Implementation and Extension to Low Magnitudes

We assess the use and reliability of a source inversion of the W-phase in real-time operations at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center. The three-stage inversion algorithm produces rapid and reliable estimates of moment magnitude and source mechanism for events larger than M_w 7.0 within 25 minutes of the earthquake origin time, often less, and holds great promise for vastly improving our response times to such earthquakes worldwide. The method also produces stable results (within ±0.2 units of Global Centroid Moment Tensor project estimates) for earthquakes as small as M_w 5.8 when using stations out to distances of 90°. These applications extend the use of W-phase far beyond the higher magnitude events for which the inversion was originally intended, facilitating its use as a complementary approach to traditional body- and surface-wave methods for assessing the source properties of an earthquake. Kanamori and Rivera (2008) introduced the use of W-phase as a reliable method to rapidly assess the source properties (M_w and mechanism) of earthquakes greater than ~M_w 7.5. They showed that the W-phase inversion method has important real-time applications for tsunami warning purposes (and indeed for the calculation of earthquake moment), particularly for very large earthquakes such as the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Islands event for which traditional methods may suffer due to the clipping of seismograms and/or because they do not deliver accurate results quickly enough to be useful for tsunami warning

Seismological analyses of the 2010 March 11, Pichilemu, Chile M_w 7.0 and M_w 6.9 coastal intraplate earthquakes

On 2010 March 11, a sequence of large, shallow continental crust earthquakes shook central Chile. Two normal faulting events with magnitudes around M_w 7.0 and M_w 6.9 occurred just 15 min apart, located near the town of Pichilemu. These kinds of large intraplate, inland crustal earthquakes are rare above the Chilean subduction zone, and it is important to better understand their relationship with the 2010 February 27, M_w 8.8, Maule earthquake, which ruptured the adjacent megathrust plate boundary. We present a broad seismological analysis of these earthquakes by using both teleseismic and regional data. We compute seismic moment tensors for both events via a W-phase inversion, and test sensitivities to various inversion parameters in order to assess the stability of the solutions. The first event, at 14 hr 39 min GMT, is well constrained, displaying a fault plane with strike of N145°E, and a preferred dip angle of 55°SW, consistent with the trend of aftershock locations and other published results. Teleseismic finite-fault inversions for this event show a large slip zone along the southern part of the fault, correlating well with the reported spatial density of aftershocks. The second earthquake (14 hr 55 min GMT) appears to have ruptured a fault branching southward from the previous ruptured fault, within the hanging wall of the first event. Modelling seismograms at regional to teleseismic distances (Δ > 10°) is quite challenging because the observed seismic wave fields of both events overlap, increasing apparent complexity for the second earthquake. We perform both point- and extended-source inversions at regional and teleseismic distances, assessing model sensitivities resulting from variations in fault orientation, dimension, and hypocentre location. Results show that the focal mechanism for the second event features a steeper dip angle and a strike rotated slightly clockwise with respect to the previous event. This kind of geological fault configuration, with secondary rupture in the hanging wall of a large normal fault, is commonly observed in extensional geological regimes. We propose that both earthquakes form part of a typical normal fault diverging splay, where the secondary fault connects to the main fault at depth. To ascertain more information on the spatial and temporal details of slip for both events, we gathered near-fault seismological and geodetic data. Through forward modelling of near-fault synthetic seismograms we build a kinematic k^(−2) earthquake source model with spatially distributed slip on the fault that, to first-order, explains both coseismic static displacement GPS vectors and short-period seismometer observations at the closest sites. As expected, the results for the first event agree with the focal mechanism derived from teleseismic modelling, with a magnitude M_w 6.97. Similarly, near-fault modelling for the second event suggests rupture along a normal fault, M_w 6.90, characterized by a steeper dip angle (dip = 74°) and a strike clockwise rotated (strike = 155°) with respect to the previous event

Influence of motor imagery training on hip abductor muscle strength and bilateral transfer effect

Motor imagery training could be an important treatment of reduced muscle function in patients and injured athletes. In this study, we investigated the efficacy of imagery training on maximal force production in a larger muscle group (hip abductors) and potential bilateral transfer effects. Healthy participants (n = 77) took part in two experimental studies using two imagery protocols (∼30 min/day, 5 days/week for 2 weeks) compared either with no practice (study 1), or with isometric exercise training (study 2). Maximal hip abduction isometric torque, electromyography amplitudes (trained and untrained limbs), handgrip strength, right shoulder abduction (strength and electromyography), and imagery capability were measured before and after the intervention. Post intervention, motor imagery groups of both studies exhibited significant increase in hip abductors strength (∼8%, trained side) and improved imagery capability. Further results showed that imagery training induced bilateral transfer effects on muscle strength and electromyography amplitude of hip abductors. Motor imagery training was effective in creating functional improvements in limb muscles of trained and untrained sides

Rapid Generation of Kilonova Light Curves Using Conditional Variational Autoencoder

The discovery of the optical counterpart, along with the gravitational waves from GW170817, of the first binary neutron star merger, opened up a new era for multi-messenger astrophysics. Combining the GW data with the optical counterpart, also known as AT2017gfo, classified as a kilonova, has revealed the nature of compact binary merging systems by extracting enriched information about the total binary mass, the mass ratio, the system geometry, and the equation of state. Even though the detection of kilonova brought about a revolution in the domain of multi-messenger astronomy, since there has been only one kilonova from a gravitational wave detected binary neutron star merger event so far, this limits the exact understanding of the origin and propagation of the kilonova. Here, we use a conditional variational autoencoder trained on light curve data from two kilonova models having different temporal lengths, and consequently, generate kilonova light curves rapidly based on physical parameters of our choice with good accuracy. Once trained, the time scale for light curve generation is of the order of a few milliseconds, thus speeding up generating light curves by $1000$ times compared to the simulation. The mean squared error between the generated and original light curves is typically $0.015$ with a maximum of $0.08$ for each set of considered physical parameter; while having a maximum of $\approx0.6$ error across the whole parameter space. Hence, implementing this technique provides fast and reliably accurate results.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures (3 additional figures in appendix), accepted to Ap

Tuberculosis control in South African gold mines: mathematical modeling of a trial of community-wide isoniazid preventive therapy.

A recent major cluster randomized trial of screening, active disease treatment, and mass isoniazid preventive therapy for 9 months during 2006-2011 among South African gold miners showed reduced individual-level tuberculosis incidence but no detectable population-level impact. We fitted a dynamic mathematical model to trial data and explored 1) factors contributing to the lack of population-level impact, 2) the best-achievable impact if all implementation characteristics were increased to the highest level achieved during the trial ("optimized intervention"), and 3) how tuberculosis might be better controlled with additional interventions (improving diagnostics, reducing treatment delay, providing isoniazid preventive therapy continuously to human immunodeficiency virus-positive people, or scaling up antiretroviral treatment coverage) individually and in combination. We found the following: 1) The model suggests that a small proportion of latent infections among human immunodeficiency virus-positive people were cured, which could have been a key factor explaining the lack of detectable population-level impact. 2) The optimized implementation increased impact by only 10%. 3) Implementing additional interventions individually and in combination led to up to 30% and 75% reductions, respectively, in tuberculosis incidence after 10 years. Tuberculosis control requires a combination prevention approach, including health systems strengthening to minimize treatment delay, improving diagnostics, increased antiretroviral treatment coverage, and effective preventive treatment regimens

A Bayesian Inference Framework for Gamma-ray Burst Afterglow Properties

In the field of multi-messenger astronomy, Bayesian inference is commonly adopted to compare the compatibility of models given the observed data. However, to describe a physical system like neutron star mergers and their associated gamma-ray burst (GRB) events, usually more than ten physical parameters are incorporated in the model. With such a complex model, likelihood evaluation for each Monte Carlo sampling point becomes a massive task and requires a significant amount of computational power. In this work, we perform quick parameter estimation on simulated GRB X-ray light curves using an interpolated physical GRB model. This is achieved by generating a grid of GRB afterglow light curves across the parameter space and replacing the likelihood with a simple interpolation function in the high-dimensional grid that stores all light curves. This framework, compared to the original method, leads to a ∼90× speedup per likelihood estimation. It will allow us to explore different jet models and enable fast model comparison in the future

Structural Control on Megathrust Rupture and Slip Behavior: Insights From the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake

The heterogeneous seafloor topography of the Nazca Plate as it enters the Ecuador subduction zone provides an opportunity to document the influence of seafloor roughness on slip behavior and megathrust rupture. The 2016 M$_{w}$ 7.8 Pedernales Ecuador earthquake was followed by a rich and active postseismic sequence. An internationally coordinated rapid response effort installed a temporary seismic network to densify coastal stations of the permanent Ecuadorian national seismic network. A combination of 82 onshore short and intermediate period and broadband seismic stations and six ocean bottom seismometers recorded the postseismic Pedernales sequence for over a year after the mainshock. A robust earthquake catalog combined with calibrated relocations for a subset of magnitude ≥4 earthquakes shows pronounced spatial and temporal clustering. A range of slip behavior accommodates postseismic deformation including earthquakes, slow slip events, and earthquake swarms. Models of plate coupling and the consistency of earthquake clustering and slip behavior through multiple seismic cycles reveal a segmented subduction zone primarily controlled by subducted seafloor topography, accreted terranes, and inherited structure. The 2016 Pedernales mainshock triggered moderate to strong earthquakes (5 ≤ M ≤ 7) and earthquake swarms north of the mainshock rupture close to the epicenter of the 1906M$_{w}$ 8.8 earthquake and in the segment of the subduction zone that ruptured in 1958 in a M$_{w}$ 7.7 earthquake

Inclination estimates from off-axis GRB afterglow modelling

For gravitational wave (GW) detected neutron star mergers, one of the leading candidates for electromagnetic (EM) counterparts is the afterglow from an ultra-relativistic jet. Where this afterglow is observed, it will likely be viewed off-axis, such as the afterglow following GW170817/GRB 170817A. The temporal behaviour of an off-axis observed GRB afterglow can be used to reveal the lateral jet structure, and statistical model fits can put constraints on the various model free-parameters. Amongst these parameters is the inclination of the system to the line of sight. Along with the GW detection, the afterglow modelling provides the best constraint on the inclination to the line-of-sight and can improve the estimates of cosmological parameters, for example, the Hubble constant, from GW-EM events. However, modelling of the afterglow depends on the assumed jet structure and—often overlooked—the effects of lateral spreading. Here we show how the inclusion of lateral spreading in the afterglow models can affect the estimated inclination of GW-EM events

Rapid generation of kilonova light curves using conditional variational autoencoder

The discovery of the optical counterpart, along with the gravitational waves (GWs) from GW170817, of the first binary neutron star merger has opened up a new era for multimessenger astrophysics. Combining the GW data with the optical counterpart, also known as AT 2017gfo and classified as a kilonova, has revealed the nature of compact binary merging systems by extracting enriched information about the total binary mass, the mass ratio, the system geometry, and the equation of state. Even though the detection of kilonovae has brought about a revolution in the domain of multimessenger astronomy, there has been only one kilonova from a GW-detected binary neutron star merger event confirmed so far, and this limits the exact understanding of the origin and propagation of the kilonova. Here, we use a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) trained on light-curve data from two kilonova models having different temporal lengths, and consequently, generate kilonova light curves rapidly based on physical parameters of our choice with good accuracy. Once the CVAE is trained, the timescale for light-curve generation is of the order of a few milliseconds, which is a speedup of the generation of light curves by 1000 times as compared to the simulation. The mean squared error between the generated and original light curves is typically 0.015 with a maximum of 0.08 for each set of considered physical parameters, while having a maximum of ≈0.6 error across the whole parameter space. Hence, implementing this technique provides fast and reliably accurate results