The Term Structure of Interest Rates and its Impact on the Liability Adequacy Test for Insurance Companies in Brazil

The Brazilian regulation for applying the Liability Adequacy Test (LAT) to technical provisions in insurance companies requires that the current estimate is discounted by a term structure of interest rates (hereafter TSIR). This article aims to analyze the LAT results, derived from the use of various models to build the TSIR: the cubic spline interpolation technique, Svensson's model (adopted by the regulator) and Vasicek's model. In order to achieve the objective proposed, the exchange rates of BM&FBOVESPA trading days were used to model the ETTJ and, consequently, to discount the cash flow of the insurance company. The results indicate that: (i) LAT is sensitive to the choice of the model used to build the TSIR; (ii) this sensitivity increases with cash flow longevity; (iii) the adoption of an ultimate forward rate (UFR) for the Brazilian insurance market should be evaluated by the regulator, in order to stabilize the trajectory of the yield curve at longer maturities. The technical provision is among the main solvency items of insurance companies and the LAT result is a significant indicator of the quality of this provision, as this evaluates its sufficiency or insufficiency. Thus, this article bridges a gap in the Brazilian actuarial literature, introducing the main methodologies available for modeling the yield curve and a practical application to analyze the impact of its choice on LAT.</p

Inward-Looking Policies, Institutions, Autocrats, and Economic Growth in Latin America: An Empirical Exploration

This paper explores the institutional determinants of economic growth in Latin America by taking advantage of recent empirical research that employs subjective and objective measures to test for a possible Northian explanation that links institutional quality and economic growth. I provide a framework that helps better understand the policymakers` choices and persistence regarding inward-looking policies that were pursued between the 1930s and the 1980s by arguing that in the Latin American case Olson`s (1982) idea of encompassing interest should be expanded to cover not only the economic stakes of power holders, but also, their political stakes, somewhat along the lines of work by Robinson (1997)