Why energy models should integrate social and environmental factors : Assessing user needs, omission impacts, and real-word accuracy in the European Union

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MEnergy models are used to inform and support decisions within the transition to climate neutrality. In recent years, such models have been criticised for being overly techno-centred and ignoring environmental and social factors of the energy transition. Here, we explore and illustrate the impact of ignoring such factors by comparing model results to model user needs and real-world observations. We firstly identify concrete user needs for better representation of environmental and social factors in energy modelling via interviews, a survey and a workshop. Secondly, we explore and illustrate the effects of omitting non-techno-economic factors in modelling by contrasting policy-targeted scenarios with reality in four EU case study examples. We show that by neglecting environmental and social factors, models risk generating overly optimistic and potentially misleading results, for example by suggesting transition speeds far exceeding any speeds observed, or pathways facing hard-to-overcome resource constraints. As such, modelled energy transition pathways that ignore such factors may be neither desirable nor feasible from an environmental and social perspective, and scenarios may be irrelevant in practice. Finally, we discuss a sample of recent energy modelling innovations and call for continued and increased efforts for improved approaches that better represent environmental and social factors in energy modelling and increase the relevance of energy models for informing policymaking

Das Kopernikus-Projekt ENavi - Die Transformation des Stromsystems mit Fokus Kohleausstieg

In diesem Bericht wird die Transformation des Stromsystems als zentrale Stellschraube zur Erreichung der Klimaziele analysiert. Dabei wird die Dekarbonisierung, insbesondere der Ausstieg aus der Kohleverstromung, in den Fokus gerückt. Anhand einer systematischen Vorgehensweise werden Transformationsszenarien für das deutsche Energiesystem identifiziert, analysiert und bewertet. Die Analyse erfolgt mithilfe unterschiedlicher computergestützter Modelle, um die Auswirkungen im gesamten System abschätzen zu können. Es werden sowohl Wechselwirkungen im Stromsystem und im Energiesystem, als auch im Wirtschaftssystem und im Bereich Ressourcen und Umwelt untersucht

Discussion of energy policy goals with the target circle concept

We provide an overview of the ongoing discussions on the objectives of the energy transition in the form of a conceptual framework, intending to facilitate the search for the most viable options for a successful transformation of the energy system. For this purpose, we examine the development of energy policy goals in Germany in the past and present, whereby we give an overview of objectives and assessment approaches from politics, economics, and science. Moreover, we then merge the different views into a common framework and analyze the central conflict between the wholeness of a hypothetical target circle and the simplification in favor of a hypothetical target point in more detail