The macro-economic effects of health co-benefits associated with climate change mitigation strategies

The UK government has specific targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction to lower the risk of dangerous climate change. Strategies to reduce GHG emissions are sometimes perceived as expensive and difficult to implement but previous work has demonstrated significant potential health co-benefits from ‘Active Travel and low carbon driving’, ‘Housing Insulation/Ventilation’, and ‘Healthy Diet’ scenarios which may be attractive to policymakers. Here a Computable General Equilibrium model is used to assess the financial effects of such health co-benefits on the wider economy including changes in labour force, social security payments and healthcare costs averted. Results suggest that for all scenarios the financial impacts of the health co-benefits will be positive and increased active travel in particular is likely to make a substantial contribution, largely due to health care costs averted. Strategies to reduce GHG emissions and improve health are likely to result in substantial and increasing positive contributions to the economy which may offset some potential economic costs and thereby be seen more favourably in times of economic austerity

Novel insights into maladaptive behaviours in Prader-Willi syndrome: serendipitous findings from an open trial of vagus nerve stimulation.

BACKGROUND: We report striking and unanticipated improvements in maladaptive behaviours in Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS) during a trial of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) initially designed to investigate effects on the overeating behaviour. PWS is a genetically determined neurodevelopmental disorder associated with mild-moderate intellectual disability (ID) and social and behavioural difficulties, alongside a characteristic and severe hyperphagia. METHODS: Three individuals with PWS underwent surgery to implant the VNS device. VNS was switched on 3 months post-implantation, with an initial 0.25 mA output current incrementally increased to a maximum of 1.5 mA as tolerated by each individual. Participants were followed up monthly. RESULTS: Vagal nerve stimulation in these individuals with PWS, within the stimulation parameters used here, was safe and acceptable. However, changes in eating behaviour were equivocal. Intriguingly, unanticipated, although consistent, beneficial effects were reported by two participants and their carers in maladaptive behaviour, temperament and social functioning. These improvements and associated effects on food-seeking behaviour, but not weight, indicate that VNS may have potential as a novel treatment for such behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that these changes are mediated through afferent and efferent vagal projections and their effects on specific neural networks and functioning of the autonomic nervous system and provide new insights into the mechanisms that underpin what are serious and common problems affecting people with IDs more generally.This study was funded by The Dunhill Medical Trust, Addenbrooke’s Charitable Trust, Isaac Newton Trust , and Prader-Willi Association UK. Funding bodies had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, writing of the report or the decision to submit for publication. We are grateful to the NIHR Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Care Research and Care (CLAHRC) East of England for financial support to AJH and HAR and to the Health Foundation for support of AJH. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Taylor & Francis via http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jir.1220

Refining the content and design of an alcohol reduction app, Drink Less, to improve its usability and effectiveness: a mixed methods approach

Background: Digital interventions have the potential to reduce alcohol consumption, although evidence on the effectiveness of apps is lacking. Drink Less is a popular, evidence-informed app with good usability, putting it in a strong position to be improved upon prior to conducting a confirmatory evaluation. This paper describes the process of refining Drink Less to improve its usability and likely effectiveness. // Methods: The refinement consisted of three phases and involved qualitative and quantitative (mixed) methods: i) identifying changes to app content, based on findings from an initial evaluation of Drink Less, an updated review of digital alcohol interventions and a content analysis of user feedback; ii) designing new app modules with public input and a consultation with app developers and researchers; and iii) improving the app’s usability through user testing. Results: As a result of the updated review of digital alcohol interventions and user feedback analysis in Phase 1, three new modules: ‘Behaviour Substitution’, ‘Information about Antecedents’ and ‘Insights’, were added to the app. One existing module – ‘Identity Change’ – was removed based on the initial evaluation of Drink Less. Phases 2 and 3 resulted in changes to existing features, such as improving the navigational structure and onboarding process, and clarifying how to edit drinks and goals. // Conclusions: A mixed methods approach was used to refine the content and design of Drink Less, providing insights into how to improve its usability and likely effectiveness. Drink Less is now ready for a confirmatory evaluation

Assessment of non-invasive ICP during CSF infusion test: an approach with transcranial Doppler.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare four non-invasive intracranial pressure (nICP) methods in a prospective cohort of hydrocephalus patients whose cerebrospinal fluid dynamics was investigated using infusion tests involving controllable test-rise of ICP. METHOD: Cerebral blood flow velocity (FV), ICP and non-invasive arterial blood pressure (ABP) were recorded in 53 patients diagnosed for hydrocephalus. Non-invasive ICP methods were based on: (1) interaction between FV and ABP using black-box model (nICP_BB); (2) diastolic FV (nICP_FVd); (3) critical closing pressure (nICP_CrCP); (4) transcranial Doppler-derived pulsatility index (nICP_PI). Correlation between rise in ICP (∆ICP) and ∆nICP and averaged correlations for changes in time between ICP and nICP during infusion test were investigated. RESULTS: From baseline to plateau, all nICP estimators increased significantly. Correlations between ∆ICP and ∆nICP were better represented by nICP_PI and nICP_BB: 0.45 and 0.30 (p < 0.05). nICP_FVd and nICP_CrCP presented non-significant correlations: -0.17 (p = 0.21), 0.21 (p = 0.13). For changes in ICP during individual infusion test nICP_PI, nICP_BB and nICP_FVd presented similar correlations with ICP: 0.39 ± 0.40, 0.39 ± 0.43 and 0.35 ± 0.41 respectively. However, nICP_CrCP presented a weaker correlation (R = 0.29 ± 0.24). CONCLUSIONS: Out of the four methods, nICP_PI was the one with best performance for predicting changes in ∆ICP during infusion test, followed by nICP_BB. Unreliable correlations were shown by nICP_FVd and nICP_CrCP. Changes of ICP observed during the test were expressed by nICP values with only moderate correlations.DC is supported by a Cambridge Commonwealth, European & International Trust Scholarship, University of Cambridge. JD is supported by a Woolf Fisher Trust Scholarship. XL is supported by a Gates Cambridge Trust Scholarship. BCTC is supported by CNPQ (Research Project 203792/2014-9). DC and MC are partially supported by NIHR Brain Injury Healthcare Technology Co-operative, Cambridge, UK.This is the final version of the article. It was first available from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00701-015-2661-

Isolated oculomotor nerve palsy in patients with mild head injury

Isolated oculomotor nerve palsy following head injury is uncommon. It can only be diagnosed with confidence if it is known to have developed immediately following trauma and if adequate investigations exclude secondary causes. The recovery is only partial and this has repercussion on patients' quality of life

Body shape and size in 6-year old children: assessment by three-dimensional photonic scanning.

BACKGROUND: Body shape and size are typically described using measures such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, which predict disease risks in adults. However, this approach may underestimate the true variability in childhood body shape and size. OBJECTIVE: To use a comprehensive three-dimensional photonic scan approach to describe variation in childhood body shape and size. SUBJECTS/METHODS: At age 6 years, 3350 children from the population-based 2004 Pelotas birth cohort study were assessed by three-dimensional photonic scanner, traditional anthropometry and dual X-ray absorptiometry. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on height and 24 photonic scan variables (circumferences, lengths/widths, volumes and surface areas). RESULTS: PCA identified four independent components of children's body shape and size, which we termed: Corpulence, Central:peripheral ratio, Height and arm lengths, and Shoulder diameter. Corpulence showed strong correlations with traditional anthropometric and body composition measures (r>0.90 with weight, BMI, waist circumference and fat mass; r>0.70 with height, lean mass and bone mass); in contrast, the other three components showed weak or moderate correlations with those measures (all r<0.45). There was no sex difference in Corpulence, but boys had higher Central:peripheral ratio, Height and arm lengths and Shoulder diameter values than girls. Furthermore, children with low birth weight had lower Corpulence and Height and arm lengths but higher Central:peripheral ratio and Shoulder diameter than other children. Children from high socio-economic position (SEP) families had higher Corpulence and Height and arm lengths than other children. Finally, white children had higher Corpulence and Central:peripheral ratio than mixed or black children. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive assessment by three-dimensional photonic scanning identified components of childhood body shape and size not captured by traditional anthropometry or body composition measures. Differences in these novel components by sex, birth weight, SEP and skin colour may indicate their potential relevance to disease risks.This article is based on data from the study ‘Pelotas Birth Cohort, 2004’ conducted by the Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology at Federal University of Pelotas, in collaboration with Brazilian Public Health Association (ABRASCO). The 2004 birth cohort study is supported by the Wellcome Trust through the scheme called ‘Major Awards for Latin America on Health Consequences of Population Change’. The World Health Organization, Brazilian National research Council (CNPq) and Brazilian Ministry of Health have supported previous phase of the study. LPS is supported by ‘Science without Borders’ Brazilian scheme under protocol number 201801/2014-0.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2016.3

Effectiveness of Biosecurity Measures in Preventing Badger Visits to Farm Buildings

This is the final version of the article. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Bovine tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis is a serious and economically important disease of cattle. Badgers have been implicated in the transmission and maintenance of the disease in the UK since the 1970s. Recent studies have provided substantial evidence of widespread and frequent visits by badgers to farm buildings during which there is the potential for close direct contact with cattle and contamination of cattle feed. METHODOLOGY: Here we evaluated the effectiveness of simple exclusion measures in improving farm biosecurity and preventing badger visits to farm buildings. In the first phase of the study, 32 farms were surveyed using motion-triggered infrared cameras on potential entrances to farm buildings to determine the background level of badger visits experienced by each farm. In the second phase, they were divided into four treatment groups; "Control", "Feed Storage", "Cattle Housing" and "Both", whereby no exclusion measures were installed, exclusion measures were installed on feed storage areas only, cattle housing only or both feed storage and cattle housing, respectively. Badger exclusion measures included sheet metal gates, adjustable metal panels for gates, sheet metal fencing, feed bins and electric fencing. Cameras were deployed for at least 365 nights in each phase on each farm. RESULTS: Badger visits to farm buildings occurred on 19 of the 32 farms in phase one. In phase two, the simple exclusion measures were 100% effective in preventing badger entry into farm buildings, as long as they were appropriately deployed. Furthermore, the installation of exclusion measures also reduced the level of badger visits to the rest of the farmyard. The findings of the present study clearly demonstrate how relatively simple practical measures can substantially reduce the likelihood of badger visits to buildings and reduce some of the potential for contact and disease transmission between badgers and cattle.This work was funded by Defra project number SE3119, http://www.defra.gov.uk/. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Comparability of Results from Pair and Classical Model Formulations for Different Sexually Transmitted Infections

The “classical model” for sexually transmitted infections treats partnerships as instantaneous events summarized by partner change rates, while individual-based and pair models explicitly account for time within partnerships and gaps between partnerships. We compared predictions from the classical and pair models over a range of partnership and gap combinations. While the former predicted similar or marginally higher prevalence at the shortest partnership lengths, the latter predicted self-sustaining transmission for gonorrhoea (GC) and Chlamydia (CT) over much broader partnership and gap combinations. Predictions on the critical level of condom use (Cc) required to prevent transmission also differed substantially when using the same parameters. When calibrated to give the same disease prevalence as the pair model by adjusting the infectious duration for GC and CT, and by adjusting transmission probabilities for HIV, the classical model then predicted much higher Cc values for GC and CT, while Cc predictions for HIV were fairly close. In conclusion, the two approaches give different predictions over potentially important combinations of partnership and gap lengths. Assuming that it is more correct to explicitly model partnerships and gaps, then pair or individual-based models may be needed for GC and CT since model calibration does not resolve the differences

Limited contribution of permafrost carbon to methane release from thawing peatlands

Models predict that thaw of permafrost soils at northern high-latitudes will release tens of billions of tonnes of carbon (C) to the atmosphere by 21001-3. The effect on the Earth's climate depends strongly on the proportion of this C which is released as the more powerful greenhouse gas methane (CH4), rather than carbon dioxide (CO2)1,4; even if CH4 emissions represent just 2% of the C release, they would contribute approximately one quarter of the climate forcing5. In northern peatlands, thaw of ice-rich permafrost causes surface subsidence (thermokarst) and water-logging6, exposing substantial stores (10s of kg C m-2, ref. 7) of previously-frozen organic matter to anaerobic conditions, and generating ideal conditions for permafrost-derived CH4 release. Here we show that, contrary to expectations, although substantial CH4 fluxes (>20 g CH4 m 2 yr-1) were recorded from thawing peatlands in northern Canada, only a small amount was derived from previously-frozen C (<2 g CH4 m-2 yr-1). Instead, fluxes were driven by anaerobic decomposition of recent C inputs. We conclude that thaw-induced changes in surface wetness and wetland area, rather than the anaerobic decomposition of previously-frozen C, may determine the effect of permafrost thaw on CH4 emissions from northern peatlands

Quantitative trait loci conferring grain mineral nutrient concentrations in durum wheat 3 wild emmer wheat RIL population

Mineral nutrient malnutrition, and particularly deficiency in zinc and iron, afflicts over 3 billion people worldwide. Wild emmer wheat, Triticum turgidum ssp. dicoccoides, genepool harbors a rich allelic repertoire for mineral nutrients in the grain. The genetic and physiological basis of grain protein, micronutrients (zinc, iron, copper and manganese) and macronutrients (calcium, magnesium, potassium, phosphorus and sulfur) concentration was studied in tetraploid wheat population of 152 recombinant inbred lines (RILs), derived from a cross between durum wheat (cv. Langdon) and wild emmer (accession G18-16). Wide genetic variation was found among the RILs for all grain minerals, with considerable transgressive effect. A total of 82 QTLs were mapped for 10 minerals with LOD score range of 3.2–16.7. Most QTLs were in favor of the wild allele (50 QTLs). Fourteen pairs of QTLs for the same trait were mapped to seemingly homoeologous positions, reflecting synteny between the A and B genomes. Significant positive correlation was found between grain protein concentration (GPC), Zn, Fe and Cu, which was supported by significant overlap between the respective QTLs, suggesting common physiological and/or genetic factors controlling the concentrations of these mineral nutrients. Few genomic regions (chromosomes 2A, 5A, 6B and 7A) were found to harbor clusters of QTLs for GPC and other nutrients. These identified QTLs may facilitate the use of wild alleles for improving grain nutritional quality of elite wheat cultivars, especially in terms of protein, Zn and Fe