Avoidable flaws in observational analyses: an application to statins and cancer

The increasing availability of large healthcare databases is fueling an intense debate on whether real-world data should play a role in the assessment of the benefit–risk of medical treatments. In many observational studies, for example, statin users were found to have a substantially lower risk of cancer than in meta-analyses of randomized trials. Although such discrepancies are often attributed to a lack of randomization in the observational studies, they might be explained by flaws that can be avoided by explicitly emulating a target trial (the randomized trial that would answer the question of interest). Using the electronic health records of 733,804 UK adults, we emulated a target trial of statins and cancer and compared our estimates with those obtained using previously applied analytic approaches. Over the 10-yr follow-up, 28,408 individuals developed cancer. Under the target trial approach, estimated observational analogs of intention-to-treat and per-protocol 10-yr cancer-free survival differences were −0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) −1.0%, 0.0%) and −0.3% (95% CI −1.5%, 0.5%), respectively. By contrast, previous analytic approaches yielded estimates that appeared to be strongly protective. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly emulating a target trial to reduce bias in the effect estimates derived from observational analyses

Immediate versus deferred initiation of androgen deprivation therapy in prostate cancer patients with PSA-only relapse. An observational follow-up study

BackgroundThe optimal timing to start androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer patients with rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) as the only sign of relapse is unknown.MethodsWe identified men with prostate cancer in the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavour (CaPSURE) study who would have been eligible (⩽ cT3aN0M0, primary radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy, PSA relapse as the only evidence of recurrence) for a randomised trial comparing 'immediate' versus 'deferred' ADT initiation. We emulated such trial by assigning patients to the 'immediate' strategy if they initiated ADT within 3 months of PSA relapse and to the 'deferred' strategy if they initiated ADT when they presented with metastasis, symptoms or a short PSA doubling time. We censored patients when they deviated from the assigned strategy and adjusted for this censoring via inverse probability weighting.ResultsOf 2096 eligible patients (median age 69, interquartile range 63-75 years), 88% were white, 35% had a Gleason score ⩾ 7, 69% were treated with radical prostatectomy and 31% received radiotherapy only as primary treatment. The mean time from primary treatment to PSA relapse was 37.4 (standard deviation [SD] 34.2) months. Mean follow-up from primary treatment was 91.4 (SD 48.4) months. The adjusted mortality hazard ratio for immediate versus deferred ADT was 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52-1.60), which would be translated into a similar 5-year survival (difference between groups: -2.0% (95% CI: -10.0 to 5.9%).ConclusionOur analysis suggests that prostate cancer patients undergoing immediate ADT initiation within three months after PSA-only relapse had similar survival to those who deferred ADT initiation within 3 months after clinical progression

A retrospective observational study of the relationship between single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with the risk of developing Colorectal cancer and survival

Background: There is variability in clinical outcome for patients with apparently the same stage colorectal cancer (CRC). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) mapping to chromosomes 1q41, 3q26.2, 6p21, 8q23.3, 8q24.21, 10p14, 11q13, 11q23.1, 12q13.13, 14q22, 14q22.2, 15q13.3, 16q22.1, 18q21.1, 19q13.11, 20p12, 20p12.3, 20q13.33 and Xp22 have robustly been shown to be associated with the risk of developing CRC. Since germline variation can also influence patient outcome the relationship between these SNPs and patient survivorship from CRC was examined. Methods: All enrolled into the National Study of Colorectal Cancer Genetics (NSCCG) were genotyped for 1q41, 3q26.2, 6p21, 8q23.3, 8q24.21, 10p14, 11q13, 11q23.1, 12q13.13, 14q22, 14q22.2, 15q13.3, 16q22.1, 18q21.1, 19q13.11, 20p12, 20p12.3, 20q13.33 and xp22 SNPs. Linking this information to the National Cancer Data Repository allowed patient genotype to be related to survival. Results: The linked dataset consisted of 4,327 individuals. 14q22.22 genotype defined by the SNP rs4444235 showed a significant association with overall survival. Specifically, the C allele was associated with poorer observed survival (per allele hazard ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.22, P = 0.0015). Conclusion: The CRC susceptibility SNP rs4444235 also appears to exert an influence in modulating patient survival and warrants further evaluation as a potential prognostic marker

Immediate versus deferred initiation of androgen deprivation therapy in prostate cancer patients with PSA-only relapse. An observational follow-up study.

BackgroundThe optimal timing to start androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer patients with rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) as the only sign of relapse is unknown.MethodsWe identified men with prostate cancer in the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavour (CaPSURE) study who would have been eligible (⩽ cT3aN0M0, primary radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy, PSA relapse as the only evidence of recurrence) for a randomised trial comparing 'immediate' versus 'deferred' ADT initiation. We emulated such trial by assigning patients to the 'immediate' strategy if they initiated ADT within 3 months of PSA relapse and to the 'deferred' strategy if they initiated ADT when they presented with metastasis, symptoms or a short PSA doubling time. We censored patients when they deviated from the assigned strategy and adjusted for this censoring via inverse probability weighting.ResultsOf 2096 eligible patients (median age 69, interquartile range 63-75 years), 88% were white, 35% had a Gleason score ⩾ 7, 69% were treated with radical prostatectomy and 31% received radiotherapy only as primary treatment. The mean time from primary treatment to PSA relapse was 37.4 (standard deviation [SD] 34.2) months. Mean follow-up from primary treatment was 91.4 (SD 48.4) months. The adjusted mortality hazard ratio for immediate versus deferred ADT was 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52-1.60), which would be translated into a similar 5-year survival (difference between groups: -2.0% (95% CI: -10.0 to 5.9%).ConclusionOur analysis suggests that prostate cancer patients undergoing immediate ADT initiation within three months after PSA-only relapse had similar survival to those who deferred ADT initiation within 3 months after clinical progression

Immediate versus deferred initiation of androgen deprivation therapy in prostate cancer patients with PSA-only relapse. An observational follow-up study.

BackgroundThe optimal timing to start androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer patients with rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) as the only sign of relapse is unknown.MethodsWe identified men with prostate cancer in the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavour (CaPSURE) study who would have been eligible (⩽ cT3aN0M0, primary radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy, PSA relapse as the only evidence of recurrence) for a randomised trial comparing 'immediate' versus 'deferred' ADT initiation. We emulated such trial by assigning patients to the 'immediate' strategy if they initiated ADT within 3 months of PSA relapse and to the 'deferred' strategy if they initiated ADT when they presented with metastasis, symptoms or a short PSA doubling time. We censored patients when they deviated from the assigned strategy and adjusted for this censoring via inverse probability weighting.ResultsOf 2096 eligible patients (median age 69, interquartile range 63-75 years), 88% were white, 35% had a Gleason score ⩾ 7, 69% were treated with radical prostatectomy and 31% received radiotherapy only as primary treatment. The mean time from primary treatment to PSA relapse was 37.4 (standard deviation [SD] 34.2) months. Mean follow-up from primary treatment was 91.4 (SD 48.4) months. The adjusted mortality hazard ratio for immediate versus deferred ADT was 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52-1.60), which would be translated into a similar 5-year survival (difference between groups: -2.0% (95% CI: -10.0 to 5.9%).ConclusionOur analysis suggests that prostate cancer patients undergoing immediate ADT initiation within three months after PSA-only relapse had similar survival to those who deferred ADT initiation within 3 months after clinical progression