Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Exact risk improvement of bandwidth selectors for kernel density estimation with directional data

New bandwidth selectors for kernel density estimation with directional data are presented in this work. These selectors are based on asymptotic and exact error expressions for the kernel density estimator combined with mixtures of von Mises distributions. The performance of the proposed selectors is investigated in a simulation study and compared with other existing rules for a large variety of directional scenarios, sample sizes and dimensions. The selector based on the exact error expression turns out to have the best behaviour of the studied selectors for almost all the situations. This selector is illustrated with real data for the circular and spherical casesThe work of the author has been supported by FPU grant AP2010–0957 from the Spanish Ministry of Education. Support of Project MTM2008–03010, from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Project 10MDS207015PR from Dirección Xeral de I+D, Xunta de Galicia and IAP network StUDyS, from Belgian Science Policy, are acknowledgedS

Discounted optimal stopping of a Brownian bridge, with application to American options under pinning

Mathematically, the execution of an American-style financial derivative is commonly reduced to solving an optimal stopping problem. Breaking the general assumption that the knowledge of the holder is restricted to the price history of the underlying asset, we allow for the disclosure of future information about the terminal price of the asset by modeling it as a Brownian bridge. This model may be used under special market conditions, in particular we focus on what in the literature is known as the "pinning effect", that is, when the price of the asset approaches the strike price of a highly-traded option close to its expiration date. Our main mathematical contribution is in characterizing the solution to the optimal stopping problem when the gain function includes the discount factor. We show how to numerically compute the solution and we analyze the effect of the volatility estimation on the strategy by computing the confidence curves around the optimal stopping boundary. Finally, we compare our method with the optimal exercise time based on a geometric Brownian motion by using real data exhibiting pinning.Comment: 29 pages, 9 figures. Supplementary material: 5 R scripts, 4 RData file

Toroidal PCA via density ridges

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a well-known linear dimension-reduction technique designed for Euclidean data. In a wide spectrum of applied fields, however, it is common to observe multivariate circular data (also known as toroidal data), rendering spurious the use of PCA on it due to the periodicity of its support. This paper introduces Toroidal Ridge PCA (TR-PCA), a novel construction of PCA for bivariate circular data that leverages the concept of density ridges as a flexible first principal component analog. Two reference bivariate circular distributions, the bivariate sine von Mises and the bivariate wrapped Cauchy, are employed as the parametric distributional basis of TR-PCA. Efficient algorithms are presented to compute density ridges for these two distribution models. A complete PCA methodology adapted to toroidal data (including scores, variance decomposition, and resolution of edge cases) is introduced and implemented in the companion R package ridgetorus. The usefulness of TR-PCA is showcased with a novel case study involving the analysis of ocean currents on the coast of Santa Barbara.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl