The role of the surface evapotranspiration in regional climate modelling: Evaluation and near-term future changes

Surface evapotranspiration (SFCEVP) plays an essential role in the climate, being the link between hydrological and energy cycles. Therefore, how it is approximated and its implication in the regional climate are important aspects to understand the effects of climate change, especially in transitional zones such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP). This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of the SFCEVP using a regional climate model (RCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To this purpose, a set of WRF simulations were completed using different driving data. On the first hand, a recent present (1980–2017) simulation driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis was carried out to evaluate the suitability of the RCM performance. On the other hand, two global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 initiative, the CESM1 and the MPI-ESM-LR, were used as driving data to evaluate the GCM-RCM coupling, which is essential to climate change applications. Finally, projected changes were also investigated for a near-term future (2021–2050) paradigm. In general, the results pointed out the WRF model as a valuable tool to study the spatiotemporal patterns of the SFCEVP in the IP, showing an overall and acceptable ability at different spatial and temporal scales. Concerning projections, the results indicate that the IP is likely to undergo significant changes in the SFCEVP in the near future. These changes will be more apparent over the southernmost, and particularly during spring and summer, being in the latter season the SFCEVP fundamentally reduced. These results agree with projected changes in soil moisture, which is probably associated with changes in precipitation patterns. Additionally, the results reveal the major role of SFCEVP in modulating the climate over this region, which is involved in the complex land-atmosphere processes.Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granad

Projected hydrologic changes over the north of the Iberian Peninsula using a Euro-CORDEX multi-model ensemble

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the headwater areas of the Duero River Basin, the largest basin of the Iberian Peninsula. To this end, an ensemble of 18 Euro-CORDEX model experiments was gathered for 1975-2005 and 2021-2100, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and were used as the meteorological forcings of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) during the hydrological modelling exercise. The projected hydrologic changes for the future period were analyzed at annual and seasonal scales using several evaluation metrics, such as the delta changes of the atmospheric and land variables, the runoff and evapotranspiration ratios of the overall water balance, the snowmelt contribution to the total streamflow and the centroid position for the daily hydrograph of the average hydrologic year. Annual streamflow reductions of up to 40% were attained in various parts of the basin for 2071-2100 under RCP8.5 scenario, and resulted from the precipitation decreases in the southern subwatersheds and the combined effect of the precipitation decreases and evapotranspiration increases in the north. The runoff and the evapotranspiration ratios evinced a tendency towards an evaporative regime in the north part of the basin and a strengthening of the evaporative response in the south. Seasonal streamflow changes were mostly negative and dependent on the season considered, with greater detriments in spring and summer, and less intense ones in autumn and winter. The snowmelt contribution to the total streamflow was strongly diminished with decreases reaching -80% in autumn and spring, thus pointing to a change in the snow regime for the Duero mountains. Finally, the annual and seasonal changes of the centroid position accounted for the shape changes of the hydrograph, constituting a measure of seasonality and reflecting high correlations degrees with the streamflow delta changes

Projected hydrologic changes over the north of the Iberian Peninsula using a Euro-CORDEX multi-model ensemble

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the headwater areas of the Duero River Basin, the largest basin of the Iberian Peninsula. To this end, an ensemble of 18 Euro-CORDEX model experiments was gathered for two periods, 1975–2005 and 2021–2100, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and were used as the meteorological forcings of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) during the hydrological modelling exercise. The projected hydrologic changes for the future period were analyzed at annual and seasonal scales using several evaluation metrics, such as the delta changes of the atmospheric and land variables, the runoff and evapotranspiration ratios of the overall water balance, the snowmelt contribution to the total streamflow and the centroid position for the daily hydrograph of the average hydrologic year. Annual streamflow reductions of up to 40% were attained in various parts of the basin for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, and resulted from the precipitation decreases in the southern subwatersheds and the combined effect of the precipitation decreases and evapotranspiration increases in the north. The runoff and the evapotranspiration ratios evinced a tendency towards an evaporative regime in the north part of the basin and a strengthening of the evaporative response in the south. Seasonal streamflow changes were mostly negative and dependent on the season considered, with greater detriments in spring and summer, and less intense ones in autumn and winter. The snowmelt contribution to the total streamflow was strongly diminished with decreases reaching −80% in autumn and spring, thus pointing to a change in the snow regime for the Duero mountains. Finally, the annual and seasonal changes of the centroid position accounted for the shape changes of the hydrograph, constituting a measure of seasonality and reflecting high correlations degrees with the streamflow delta changes.Departamento Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de GranadaSpanish Ministry of Economy and625 Competitiveness projects CGL2013-48539-R and CGL2017-89836-REuropean Community Funds (FEDER) and by FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería627 de Economía y Conocimiento/B-RNM-336-UGR18 projectMinistry of Education, Culture and Sport of Spain (FPU grant FPU17/02098

Storm Gloria: sea state evolution based on in situ measurements and modeled data and its impact on extreme values

Storm Gloria, generated on January 17th, 2020 in the Eastern North Atlantic, crossed the Iberian Peninsula and impacted the Western Mediterranean during the following days. The event produced relevant damages on the coast and the infrastructures at the Catalan-Balearic Sea, due to extraordinary wind and wave fields, concomitant with anomalously intense rain and ocean currents. Puertos del Estado (the Spanish holding of harbors) has developed and operates a complex monitoring and forecasting system (PORTUS System), in collaboration with the Spanish Met Office (AEMET). The present work shows how Gloria was correctly forecasted by this system, alerts were properly issued (with special focus to the ports), and the buoys were able to monitor the sea state conditions during the event, measuring several new records of significant wave height and exceptional high mean wave periods. The paper describes, in detail, the dynamic evolution of the atmospheric conditions, and the sea state during the storm. It is by means of the study of both in situ and modeled PORTUS data, in combination with the AEMET weather forecast system results. The analysis also serves to place this storm in a historical context, showing the exceptional nature of the event, and to identify the specific reasons why its impact was particularly severe. The work also demonstrates the relevance of the PORTUS System to warn, in advance, the main Spanish Ports. It prevents accidents that could result in fatal casualties. To do so, the wave forecast warning performance is analyzed, making special focus on the skill score for the different horizons. Furthermore, it is demonstrated how a storm of this nature results in the need of changes on the extreme wave analysis for the area. It impacts all sorts of design activities at the coastline. The paper studies both how this storm fits into existing extreme analysis and how these should be modified in the light of this particular single event. This work is the first of a series of papers to be published on this issue. They analyze, in detail, other aspects of the event, including evolution of sea level and description of coastal damages

Extreme wave height events in NW Spain: a combined multi-sensor and model approach

The Galician coast (NW Spain) is a region that is strongly influenced by the presence of low pressure systems in the mid-Atlantic Ocean and the periodic passage of storms that give rise to severe sea states. Since its wave climate is one of the most energetic in Europe, the objectives of this paper were twofold. The first objective was to characterize the most extreme wave height events in Galicia over the wintertime of a two-year period (2015–2016) by using reliable high-frequency radar wave parameters in concert with predictions from a regional wave (WAV) forecasting system running operationally in the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) area, denominated IBI-WAV. The second objective was to showcase the application of satellite wave altimetry (in particular, remote-sensed three-hourly wave height estimations) for the daily skill assessment of the IBI-WAV model product. Special attention was focused on monitoring Ophelia—one of the major hurricanes on record in the easternmost Atlantic—during its 3-day track over Ireland and the UK (15–17 October 2017). Overall, the results reveal the significant accuracy of IBI-WAV forecasts and prove that a combined observational and modeling approach can provide a comprehensive characterization of severe wave conditions in coastal areas and shows the benefits from the complementary nature of both systems.The authors also would like to thank the support by Interreg Atlantic Area project MyCOAST (EAPA 285/2016) co-funded by the ERDF (EU)S

Validation of Backtable Graft Arterial Anastomosis Between Splenic Artery and Superior Mesenteric Artery: A 21-year Single-center Experience of Pancreas Transplantation

Resumen del trabajo presentado en el IPITA 2021 VIRTUAL CONGRESS, celebrado de forma virtual del 20 al 23 de octubre de 2021Aim: To determine the role of the arterial spleno-mesenteric anastomosis reconstruction technique compared to other types of backtable arterial anastomosis, in terms of vascular complications and long-term patient and graft survival in a single institution. Methods: Retrospective analysis including all pancreas transplants performed over 21 years (1999–2019). For the bench reconstruction: (1) the distal superior mesenteric artery (SMA) was distally dissected and sewn to the splenic artery (SA), or (2) the arteries were reconstructed with an iliac arterial “Y” graft. Results: A total of 412 pancreas transplantations were done. At the bench procedure SMA/SA anastomosis was performed in 376 of patients, arterial iliac “Y” graft in 32 of patients, and no arterial reconstruction was required in 4 of patients. A total of 90 patients presented vascular complications within the 30 days following transplant: (venous (n=64), arterial (n=11), both (n=15), without statistically significant differences between the SMA/SA anastomosis group and others. Regarding acute arterial events:(1) for the SMA/SA anastomosis group, a total of 24 patients presented with thrombosis (n=16), stenosis (n=5), pseudoaneurysm (n=2); (2) for the iliac “Y” graft group, there were 3 patients with thrombosis. Focusing on chronic arterial events:(1)for the SMA/SA anastomosis group, a total of 2 patients presented with chronic thrombosis, 2 with pseudoaneurysm, 2 with arterioenteral fistula and one with arteriovenous fistula;(2)for the iliac “Y” graft group, and one patient with arterioenteral fistula. After a median follow-up of 129.2 [77.2–182] months, no statically differences were found between SMA/SA anastomosis and iliac “Y” graft arterial reconstruction groups at 1, 3, 5 and 10 years in terms of patient and graft survival. Conclusions: The back table procedure used in our institution (SMA/SA) is an easy, effective and safe surgical technique that can be used as the first option for arterial reconstruction or as a good alternative for surgeons to the widely used arterial “Y” graft.Peer reviewe

Extreme wave height events in NW Spain: a combined multi-sensor and model approach

The Galician coast (NW Spain) is a region that is strongly influenced by the presence of low pressure systems in the mid-Atlantic Ocean and the periodic passage of storms that give rise to severe sea states. Since its wave climate is one of the most energetic in Europe, the objectives of this paper were twofold. The first objective was to characterize the most extreme wave height events in Galicia over the wintertime of a two-year period (2015–2016) by using reliable high-frequency radar wave parameters in concert with predictions from a regional wave (WAV) forecasting system running operationally in the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) area, denominatedIBI-WAV. The second objective was to showcase the application of satellite wave altimetry (in particular, remote-sensed three-hourly wave height estimations) for the daily skill assessment of the IBI-WAV model product. Special attention was focused on monitoring Ophelia—one of the major hurricanes on record in the easternmost Atlantic—during its 3-day track over Ireland and the UK (15–17 October 2017). Overall, the results reveal the significant accuracy of IBI-WAV forecasts and prove that a combined observational and modeling approach can provide a comprehensive characterization of severe wave conditions in coastal areas and shows the benefits from the complementary nature of both systems

Emergencia del cambio climático en cuencas de la Península Ibérica

Ponencia presentada en: XII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Santiago de Compostela entre el 19 y el 21 de octubre de 2022.[ES]Se espera que el aumento de la concentración de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) a la atmósfera cause importantes cambios en el sistema climático. Sin embargo, cómo será dicho efecto en el comportamiento de las diferentes variables climáticas es aún incierto a escala regional. Este estudio investiga la potencial emergencia de la señal de cambio climático antropogénico para las diferentes cuencas hidrográficas de la Península Ibérica (PI), una región especialmente vulnerable a los efectos del cambio climático. Para ello se analizan proyecciones de cambio climático regional de temperatura y precipitación a partir de la relación señal/ruido (S/N) calculada a escala estacional. Dichas proyecciones se obtuvieron con el modelo Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) el cual fue conducido por el modelo climático global (GCM) MPI-ESM-LR. MPI-ESM-LR fue previamente corregido en sesgo para simular el clima en la PI en el periodo de 1980 a 2100 bajo dos escenarios de emisión, el RCP4.5 y el RCP8.5. En general, los resultados mostraron que la señal de cambio climático antropogénico es probable que emerja durante el siglo XXI, al menos para la temperatura, siendo dicha señal más fuerte bajo el escenario RCP8.5 durante el otoño y verano. Bajo este mismo escenario, la precipitación muestra una señal de cambio más fuerte en primavera y verano. Determinar cómo evolucionará la señal de cambio antropogénica y cuando emergerá es de vital importancia, por lo que estos resultados pueden ayudar a la toma de decisiones y a la implementación de políticas de prevención y adaptación al cambio climático adecuadas.[EN]The rising concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere is expected to cause significant changes in the climate system. However, it is still uncertain how this factor would affect the behavior of different climatic variables on a regional scale.This study explores the potential emergence of the signal of anthropogenic climate change for the different river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), a region that is especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. For this purpose, regional climate change projections of precipitation and temperature were analyzed by means of the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio at a seasonal scale. These projections were achieved with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which was driven by the MPI-ESM-LR global climate model (GCM). MPI-ESM-LR was previously corrected in bias to simulate the climate in the IP for the period 1979 to 2100 under two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.Overall, the results indicated that the anthropogenic climate change signal is likely to emerge over the twenty-first century, at least for temperature, with this signal being stronger under the RCP8.5 scenario during autumn and summer. Under this same scenario, precipitation shows a stronger signal in summer and spring. Determining how the anthropogenic change signal will evolve and when it will emerge is critical; as a result, these findings can assist decision makers in developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation policies to climate change.Este estudio ha sido financiado por FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades (proyecto P20_00035), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (proyecto LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01), FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Economía y Conocimiento (proyecto B-RNM-336-UGR18), y Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (proyecto CGL2017-89836-R)

Estudio de la habilidad de las predicciones climáticas decenales para reproducir patrones de circulación atmosférica de gran escala

Ponencia presentada en: XII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Santiago de Compostela entre el 19 y el 21 de octubre de 2022.[ES]El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la capacidad del Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) para reproducir los principales patrones de circulación atmosférica del hemisferio norte. El DPLE está constituido por una serie de simulaciones climáticas decenales llevadas a cabo con el Community Earth System Model (CESM) e inicializadas cada año en noviembre desde 1954 hasta 2015. Para cada fecha de inicialización, un total de 40 realizaciones fueron generadas mediante la perturbación aleatoria de las condiciones iniciales atmosféricas. En este estudio se han analizado los principales modos de variabilidad espaciotemporal en invierno (diciembre, enero y febrero) de la presión a nivel del mar (SLP) del DPLE mediante un análisis de componentes principales (PCA). Se ha tomado como referencia la SLP del reanálisis del Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) en la evaluación de los resultados. La mayor correspondencia entre los modos de variabilidad del DPLE y los de referencia se da para el rango de predicción de 1-4 años, aunque las correlaciones existentes entre las componentes principales rotadas no superan el valor de 0.5. Las correlaciones disminuyen para los rangos de predicción de 3-6 y 6-9 años.[EN]The aim of this study is to evaluate the skill of Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) in reproducing the main atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. The DPLE encompasses a collection of near-term climate simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and initialised every year in November from 1954 to 2015. For each initial date, an ensemble of 40 members was generated by randomly perturbing the initial atmospheric conditions. In this study, the main spatio-temporal variability modes of DPLE sea level pressure (SLP) in winter (December, January, and February) have been analysed by means of a principal component analysis (PCA). SLP data from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) has been used as a reference dataset in the evaluation of the results. The largest similarities between the DPLE and reference variability modes have been found in the forecast range of 1-4 years, although the correlations between the rotated principal components do not surpass 0.5. The correlations decrease for the forecast ranges of 3-6 and 6-9 years.Este estudio ha sido realizado en el marco del proyecto CGL2017-89836-R, financiado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, y con fondos FEDER adicionales: B-RNM-336- UGR18, financiado por FEDER/Junta de Andalucía - Conserjería de Economía y Conocimiento, y P20_00035, financiado por FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Conserjería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades, y Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (proyecto LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01)