The Future Mortality of High Mortality Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments

This paper examines the future of mortality in the 65 countries still experiencing high mortality in 2010, as defined by a cutoff of 40 deaths before age five per thousand live births. Mortality declines in several countries stagnated or reversed in the last two decades of the twentieth century due mainly to HIV/AIDS. The forces underlying past mortality trends and affecting the future course of mortality are examined by reviewing the existing literature and reporting the results of the global survey and invited meeting, both involving mortality experts. The experts assessed the likelihood and weight of forces hypothesized to influence mortality. A statistical model is combined with these expert assessments to produce a set of mortality assumptions that are incorporated into the projections reported in this paper. This paper also addresses the limited availability of reliable data on age-specific mortality rates

Developing country-wide farming system typologies: An analysis of Ethiopian smallholders’ income and food security

This paper aims to better understand the context in which smallholder farms operate. The study has developed a new methodology to establish country-wide farm typologies that combines household and macro-level data (household survey, agricultural census and land cover data) to analyze food security and poverty, to enable an analysis that is both farm-system specific and spatially explicit. Using this methodology to analyze the poverty and food security situation of Ethiopian smallholder farms, the study has developed farming-system- and location-specific poverty and food security indicators which can provide guidance for more targeted strategies to reduce rural poverty

Investigating the characteristics and correlates of systemic inflammation after traumatic brain injury: the TBI-BraINFLAMM study

INTRODUCTION: A significant environmental risk factor for neurodegenerative disease is traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it is not clear how TBI results in ongoing chronic neurodegeneration. Animal studies show that systemic inflammation is signalled to the brain. This can result in sustained and aggressive microglial activation, which in turn is associated with widespread neurodegeneration. We aim to evaluate systemic inflammation as a mediator of ongoing neurodegeneration after TBI. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: TBI-braINFLAMM will combine data already collected from two large prospective TBI studies. The CREACTIVE study, a broad consortium which enrolled >8000 patients with TBI to have CT scans and blood samples in the hyperacute period, has data available from 854 patients. The BIO-AX-TBI study recruited 311 patients to have acute CT scans, longitudinal blood samples and longitudinal MRI brain scans. The BIO-AX-TBI study also has data from 102 healthy and 24 non-TBI trauma controls, comprising blood samples (both control groups) and MRI scans (healthy controls only). All blood samples from BIO-AX-TBI and CREACTIVE have already been tested for neuronal injury markers (GFAP, tau and NfL), and CREACTIVE blood samples have been tested for inflammatory cytokines. We will additionally test inflammatory cytokine levels from the already collected longitudinal blood samples in the BIO-AX-TBI study, as well as matched microdialysate and blood samples taken during the acute period from a subgroup of patients with TBI (n=18).We will use this unique dataset to characterise post-TBI systemic inflammation, and its relationships with injury severity and ongoing neurodegeneration. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for this study has been granted by the London-Camberwell St Giles Research Ethics Committee (17/LO/2066). Results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals, presented at conferences and inform the design of larger observational and experimental medicine studies assessing the role and management of post-TBI systemic inflammation

Investigating the characteristics and correlates of systemic inflammation after traumatic brain injury: the TBI-BraINFLAMM study

Introduction: A significant environmental risk factor for neurodegenerative disease is traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it is not clear how TBI results in ongoing chronic neurodegeneration. Animal studies show that systemic inflammation is signalled to the brain. This can result in sustained and aggressive microglial activation, which in turn is associated with widespread neurodegeneration. We aim to evaluate systemic inflammation as a mediator of ongoing neurodegeneration after TBI. Methods and analysis: TBI-braINFLAMM will combine data already collected from two large prospective TBI studies. The CREACTIVE study, a broad consortium which enrolled >8000 patients with TBI to have CT scans and blood samples in the hyperacute period, has data available from 854 patients. The BIO-AX-TBI study recruited 311 patients to have acute CT scans, longitudinal blood samples and longitudinal MRI brain scans. The BIO-AX-TBI study also has data from 102 healthy and 24 non-TBI trauma controls, comprising blood samples (both control groups) and MRI scans (healthy controls only). All blood samples from BIO-AX-TBI and CREACTIVE have already been tested for neuronal injury markers (GFAP, tau and NfL), and CREACTIVE blood samples have been tested for inflammatory cytokines. We will additionally test inflammatory cytokine levels from the already collected longitudinal blood samples in the BIO-AX-TBI study, as well as matched microdialysate and blood samples taken during the acute period from a subgroup of patients with TBI (n=18). We will use this unique dataset to characterise post-TBI systemic inflammation, and its relationships with injury severity and ongoing neurodegeneration. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approval for this study has been granted by the London—Camberwell St Giles Research Ethics Committee (17/LO/2066). Results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals, presented at conferences and inform the design of larger observational and experimental medicine studies assessing the role and management of post-TBI systemic inflammation

Alzheimer’s disease marker phospho-tau181 is not elevated in the first year after moderate-severe TBI

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with the tauopathies Alzheimer’s disease and chronic traumatic encephalopathy. Advanced immunoassays show significant elevations in plasma total tau (t-tau) early post-TBI, but concentrations subsequently normalise rapidly. Tau phosphorylated at serine-181 (p-tau181) is a well-validated Alzheimer’s disease marker that could potentially seed progressive neurodegeneration. We tested whether post-traumatic p-tau181 concentrations are elevated and relate to progressive brain atrophy. Methods: Plasma p-tau181 and other post-traumatic biomarkers, including total-tau (t-tau), neurofilament light (NfL), ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), were assessed after moderate-to-severe TBI in the BIO-AX-TBI cohort (first sample mean 2.7 days, second sample within 10 days, then 6 weeks, 6 months and 12 months, n=42). Brain atrophy rates were assessed in aligned serial MRI (n=40). Concentrations were compared patients with and without Alzheimer’s disease, with healthy controls. Results: Plasma p-tau181 concentrations were significantly raised in patients with Alzheimer’s disease but not after TBI, where concentrations were non-elevated, and remained stable over one year. P-tau181 after TBI was not predictive of brain atrophy rates in either grey or white matter. In contrast, substantial trauma-associated elevations in t-tau, NfL, GFAP and UCH-L1 were seen, with concentrations of NfL and t-tau predictive of brain atrophy rates. Conclusions: Plasma p-tau181 is not significantly elevated during the first year after moderate-to-severe TBI and levels do not relate to neuroimaging measures of neurodegeneration

Axonal marker neurofilament light predicts long-term outcomes and progressive neurodegeneration after traumatic brain injury

Axonal injury is a key determinant of long-term outcomes after traumatic brain injury (TBI) but has been difficult to measure clinically. Fluid biomarker assays can now sensitively quantify neuronal proteins in blood. Axonal components such as neurofilament light (NfL) potentially provide a diagnostic measure of injury. In the multicenter BIO-AX-TBI study of moderate-severe TBI, we investigated relationships between fluid biomarkers, advanced neuroimaging, and clinical outcomes. Cerebral microdialysis was used to assess biomarker concentrations in brain extracellular fluid aligned with plasma measurement. An experimental injury model was used to validate biomarkers against histopathology. Plasma NfL increased after TBI, peaking at 10 days to 6 weeks but remaining abnormal at 1 year. Concentrations were around 10 times higher early after TBI than in controls (patients with extracranial injuries). NfL concentrations correlated with diffusion MRI measures of axonal injury and predicted white matter neurodegeneration. Plasma TAU predicted early gray matter atrophy. NfL was the strongest predictor of functional outcomes at 1 year. Cerebral microdialysis showed that NfL concentrations in plasma and brain extracellular fluid were highly correlated. An experimental injury model confirmed a dose-response relationship of histopathologically defined axonal injury to plasma NfL. In conclusion, plasma NfL provides a sensitive and clinically meaningful measure of axonal injury produced by TBI. This reflects the extent of underlying damage, validated using advanced MRI, cerebral microdialysis, and an experimental model. The results support the incorporation of NfL sampling subacutely after injury into clinical practice to assist with the diagnosis of axonal injury and to improve prognostication

Evaluation of fast atmospheric dispersion models in a regular street network

The need to balance computational speed and simulation accuracy is a key challenge in designing atmospheric dispersion models that can be used in scenarios where near real-time hazard predictions are needed. This challenge is aggravated in cities, where models need to have some degree of building-awareness, alongside the ability to capture effects of dominant urban flow processes. We use a combination of high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES) and wind-tunnel data of flow and dispersion in an idealised, equal-height urban canopy to highlight important dispersion processes and evaluate how these are reproduced by representatives of the most prevalent modelling approaches: (i) a Gaussian plume model, (ii) a Lagrangian stochastic model and (iii) street-network dispersion models. Concentration data from the LES, validated against the wind-tunnel data, were averaged over the volumes of streets in order to provide a high-fidelity reference suitable for evaluating the different models on the same footing. For the particular combination of forcing wind direction and source location studied here, the strongest deviations from the LES reference were associated with mean over-predictions of concentrations by approximately a factor of 2 and with a relative scatter larger than a factor of 4 of the mean, corresponding to cases where the mean plume centreline also deviated significantly from the LES. This was linked to low accuracy of the underlying flow models/parameters that resulted in a misrepresentation of pollutant channelling along streets and of the uneven plume branching observed in intersections. The agreement of model predictions with the LES (which explicitly resolves the turbulent flow and dispersion processes) greatly improved by increasing the accuracy of building-induced modifications of the driving flow field. When provided with a limited set of representative velocity parameters, the comparatively simple street-network models performed equally well or better compared to the Lagrangian model run on full 3D wind fields. The study showed that street-network models capture the dominant building-induced dispersion processes in the canopy layer through parametrisations of horizontal advection and vertical exchange processes at scales of practical interest. At the same time, computational costs and computing times associated with the network approach are ideally suited for emergency-response applications

Communication and visiting policies in Italian intensive care units during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave and lockdown: a nationwide survey

Background: During the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic wave, an unprecedented number of patients with respiratory failure due to a new, highly contagious virus needed hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The aim of the present study was to describe the communication and visiting policies of Italian intensive care units (ICUs) during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave and national lockdown and compare these data with prepandemic conditions. Methods: A national web-based survey was conducted among 290 Italian hospitals. Each ICU (active between February 24 and May 31, 2020) was encouraged to complete an individual questionnaire inquiring the hospital/ICU structure/organization, communication/visiting habits and the role of clinical psychology prior to, and during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave. Results: Two hundred and nine ICUs from 154 hospitals (53% of the contacted hospitals) completed the survey (202 adult and 7 pediatric ICUs). Among adult ICUs, 60% were dedicated to COVID-19 patients, 21% were dedicated to patients without COVID-19 and 19% were dedicated to both categories (Mixed). A total of 11,102 adult patients were admitted to the participating ICUs during the study period and only approximately 6% of patients received at least one visit. Communication with family members was guaranteed daily through an increased use of electronic devices and was preferentially addressed to the same family member. Compared to the prepandemic period, clinical psychologists supported physicians more often regarding communication with family members. Fewer patients received at least one visit from family members in COVID and mixed-ICUs than in non-COVID ICUs, l (0 [0–6]%, 0 [0–4]% and 11 [2–25]%, respectively, p < 0.001). Habits of pediatric ICUs were less affected by the pandemic. Conclusions: Visiting policies of Italian ICUs dedicated to adult patients were markedly altered during the first COVID-19 wave. Remote communication was widely adopted as a surrogate for family meetings. New strategies to favor a family-centered approach during the current and future pandemics are warranted