Environmental and strategic assessment of ecotourism potential in Anzali Wetland using SWOT analysis

SWOT analysis is used extensively as an assessment and planning method, particularly in tourism planning. However, there are little documentations on application of SWOT analysis in ecotourism. An assessment on systematic use of SWOT analysis was carried out in the present study to highlight the applicability of the SWOT technique in detailed investigations. In this study, based on field surveys and questionnaires (on Anzali Wetland and the local population), matrix of internal and external factors (threats, opportunities, weaknesses and strength) influencing tourism development in Anzali Wetland were evaluated within the framework of SWOT analysis and SO, WO, ST and WT strategies were identified. Based on the obtained results, the total score of 3.22 in IFE matrix suggests good condition of the system and high internal strength of the tourism development related to internal factors and the final score of 2.93 in the EFE matrix represents poor condition related to the external factors which means external factors have not been utilized properly; Thus appropriate planning and organizational management practices are required to deal with these factors. The study further proposes solutions, operational priorities and strategic planning according to environmental and local conditions of Anzali Wetland. Since the tourism industry in Iran is still in its early stages, particularly in Anzali Wetland region, the findings could help decision makers to estimate better the weaknesses, strengths, threats and opportunities, and to develop tourism industry in the region

A comparison of various influential points diagnostic methods and robust regression approaches: reanalysis of interstitial lung disease data

In a linear regression model, the estimation of regression parameters by ordinary least squares method is affected by some anomalous points in the data set. Thus, detection of these abnormal points is one of the essential steps in regression analysis. There are many classical single deletion diagnostic measures which may fail to detect strange points due to masking effect. Local influence is an alternative method to evaluate the influence of local departures from assumptions in a proposed model. The main objective of this paper is to obtain the best resistant regression method which is robust to outliers in both the response and the explanatory variables. To achieve this objective, the weight vectors of the most commonly used robust regression techniques, such as the M- and the Generalized M-regressions are studied. A new measure based on the normal curvatures of the likelihood displacement is also proposed for comparing different robust regression methods. A medical data set is reanalyzed to underline that the use of only one alternative detection method or robust regression approach may not be sufficient to detect all influential points or to conclude the best robust method. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to confirm the results

Cost Estimation of Road Traffic Injuries Among Iranian Motorcyclists Using the Willingness to Pay Method

Background: Motorcycle riders are amongst some of the most vulnerable road users. The burden of motorcycles injuries from low and middle income countries is under-reported. Objectives: In this study, the cost of traffic injuries among motorcyclists was calculated using the willingness to pay (WTP) method in Iran in 2013. Patients and Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 143 motorcyclists were randomly selected. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard WTP method [stated preference (SP), contingent value (CV) and revealed preference (RP) models] taking into consideration perceived risks, especially those in Iran. Data were collected by a scenario for motorcyclists. The criteria for inclusion in the study consisted of having at least a high school education and being in the age range of 18 - 65 years. The final analysis of the WTP data was performed using the Weibull model. Results: The mean WTP was 888,110 IRR (Iranian Rial) among motorcyclists. The statistical value of life was estimated according to 4694 death cases as 3,146,225,350,943 IRR, which was equivalent to USD 104,874,178 based on the dollar free market rate of 30,000 IRR (purchasing power parity). The cost of injury was 6,903,839,551,000 IRR, equivalent to USD 230,127,985 (based upon 73,325 injured motorcyclists in 2013, a daily traffic volume of 311, and a daily payment of 12,110 IRR for 250 working days). In total, injury and death cases came to 10,050,094,901,943 IRR, equivalent to USD 335,003,163. Willingness to pay had a significant relationship with having experienced an accident, the length of the daily trip (in km), and helmet use (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Willingness to pay can be affected by experiencing an accident, the distance of the daily trip, and helmet use. The cost of traffic injuries among motorcyclists shows that this rate is much higher than the global average. Thus, expenditure should be made on effective initiatives such as the safety of motorcyclists

Three-algebra for supermembrane and two-algebra for superstring

While string or Yang-Mills theories are based on Lie algebra or two-algebra structure, recent studies indicate that M-theory may require a one higher, three-algebra structure. Here we construct a covariant action for a supermembrane in eleven dimensions, which is invariant under global supersymmetry, local fermionic symmetry and worldvolume diffeomorphism. Our action is classically on-shell equivalent to the celebrated Bergshoeff-Sezgin-Townsend action. However, the novelty is that we spell the action genuinely in terms of Nambu three-brackets: All the derivatives appear through Nambu brackets and hence it manifests the three-algebra structure. Further the double dimensional reduction of our action gives straightforwardly to a type IIA string action featuring two-algebra. Applying the same method, we also construct a covariant action for type IIB superstring, leading directly to the IKKT matrix model.Comment: 1+15 pages, no figure; Refs added, Accepted for publication in JHE