Risk assessment of wind droughts over India

Wind power growth makes it essential to simulate weather variability and its impacts on the electricity grid. Low-probability, high-impact weather events such as a wind drought are important but difficult to identify based on limited historical datasets. A stochastic weather generator, Imperial College Weather Generator (IMAGE), is employed to identify extreme events through long-period simulations. IMAGE captures mean, spatial correlation and seasonality in wind speed and estimates return periods of extreme wind events over India. Simulations show that when Rajasthan experiences wind drought, southern India continues to have wind, and vice versa. Regional grid-scale wind droughts could be avoided if grids are strongly interconnected across the country

Effect of Body Mass Index on work related musculoskeletal discomfort and occupational stress of computer workers in a developed ergonomic setup

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Work urgency, accuracy and demands compel the computer professionals to spend longer hours before computers without giving importance to their health, especially body weight. Increase of body weight leads to improper Body Mass Index (BMI) may aggravate work related musculoskeletal discomfort and occupational-psychosocial stress. The objective of the study was to find out the effect of BMI on work related musculoskeletal discomforts and occupational stress of computer workers in a developed ergonomic setup.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A descriptive inferential study has been taken to analyze the effect of BMI on work related musculoskeletal discomfort and occupational-psychosocial stress. A total of 100 computer workers, aged 25-35 years randomly selected on convenience from software and BPO companies in Bangalore city, India for the participation in this study. BMI was calculated by taking the ratio of the subject's height (in meter) and weight (in kilogram). Work related musculoskeletal discomfort and occupational stress of the subjects was assessed by Cornell University's musculoskeletal discomfort questionnaire (CMDQ) and occupational stress index (OSI) respectively as well as a relationship was checked with their BMI.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A significant association (p < 0.001) was seen among high BMI subjects with their increase scores of musculoskeletal discomfort and occupational stress.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>From this study, it has been concluded that, there is a significant effect of BMI in increasing of work related musculoskeletal discomfort and occupational-psychosocial stress among computer workers in a developed ergonomic setup.</p

A report of a rare congenital malformation in a Nepalese child with congenital pouch colon: a case report

Congenital pouch colon is one of rare congenital anomalies. We report a 3-day-old male child with congenital pouch colon who underwent a window colostomy but died because of overwhelming sepsis. Due to its rarity, many surgeons in our part of the world may not be aware of it, hence increasing the potential to its mismanagement. However, with simple keen observations, we can safely come to its diagnosis. The aim of this report is to bring attention to congenital pouch colon associated with anorectal malformation in our country, with a brief emphasis on an approach to its diagnosis and initial management

A comparative analysis of predictive models of morbidity in intensive care unit after cardiac surgery – Part I: model planning

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Different methods have recently been proposed for predicting morbidity in intensive care units (ICU). The aim of the present study was to critically review a number of approaches for developing models capable of estimating the probability of morbidity in ICU after heart surgery. The study is divided into two parts. In this first part, popular models used to estimate the probability of class membership are grouped into distinct categories according to their underlying mathematical principles. Modelling techniques and intrinsic strengths and weaknesses of each model are analysed and discussed from a theoretical point of view, in consideration of clinical applications.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Models based on Bayes rule, <it>k-</it>nearest neighbour algorithm, logistic regression, scoring systems and artificial neural networks are investigated. Key issues for model design are described. The mathematical treatment of some aspects of model structure is also included for readers interested in developing models, though a full understanding of mathematical relationships is not necessary if the reader is only interested in perceiving the practical meaning of model assumptions, weaknesses and strengths from a user point of view.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Scoring systems are very attractive due to their simplicity of use, although this may undermine their predictive capacity. Logistic regression models are trustworthy tools, although they suffer from the principal limitations of most regression procedures. Bayesian models seem to be a good compromise between complexity and predictive performance, but model recalibration is generally necessary. <it>k</it>-nearest neighbour may be a valid non parametric technique, though computational cost and the need for large data storage are major weaknesses of this approach. Artificial neural networks have intrinsic advantages with respect to common statistical models, though the training process may be problematical.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Knowledge of model assumptions and the theoretical strengths and weaknesses of different approaches are fundamental for designing models for estimating the probability of morbidity after heart surgery. However, a rational choice also requires evaluation and comparison of actual performances of locally-developed competitive models in the clinical scenario to obtain satisfactory agreement between local needs and model response. In the second part of this study the above predictive models will therefore be tested on real data acquired in a specialized ICU.</p