Modeling Evacuation Risk Using a Stochastic Process Formulation of Mesoscopic Dynamic Network Loading

One of the actions usually conducted to limit exposure to a hazardous event is the evacuation of the area that is subject to the effects of the event itself. This involves modifications both to demand (a large number of users all want to move together) and to supply (the transport network may experience changes in capacity, unusable roads, etc.). In order to forecast the traffic evolution in a network during an evacuation, a natural choice is to adopt an approach based on Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) models. However, such models typically give a deterministic prediction of future conditions, whereas evacuations are subject to considerable uncertainty. The aim of the present paper is to describe an evacuation approach for decision support during emergencies that directly predicts the time-evolution of the probability of evacuating users from an area, formulated within a discrete-time stochastic process modelling framework. The approach is applied to a small artificial case as well as a real-life network, where we estimate users' probabilities to reach a desired safe destination and analyze time dependent risk factors in an evacuation scenario

The potential of a coordinated system of gates for flood irrigation management in paddy rice farm

Rice is one of the most important staple foods in the world. In Europe, Italy is the main producer of rice, with almost all production concentrated in the northeast of the country. Traditionally, rice is grown in fields that are flooded from before planting until just before harvest. This water management technique requires a great deal of labour for farmers who have to manually adjust the inlet and outlet gates to maintain a constant ponding water level in the fields, especially when there is fluctuation of water supply at the farm inlet, for example as a result of rainfall. In addition, the practice of flood irrigation is very water-intensive. New technologies based on remotely and automatically controlled gates are being studied to increase the efficiency of this irrigation method. The objective of this work is to explore the potential of a coordinated and intelligent system of gates for efficient farm irrigation management and ponding water level maintenance. Based on information and measurements from a real case study consisting of a 40-hectare paddy rice farm located in northern Italy, where automatic gates and water level sensors were placed at strategic points of the farm canals and fields, respectively, a proportional-integral (PI) and a non-linear model predictive control (NMPC) of water levels were implemented and compared through modelling and simulation experiments. The results show that the proportional-integral control reproduces the actions that the farmer uses when faced with situations of surplus of water in the fields or a shortage of water in the farm canal. In particular, the general coordination of the gates is lost, and the individual binomial field-gate prevails as an independent system in the farmer's operation. Conversely, non-linear predictive control coordinates the gate operation to obtain a uniform ponding water level in the fields when there is a shortage of water, or significant water conservation when there is an excess of water as a result of rainfall. In conclusion, a nonlinear predictive control model seems to be a suitable strategy to advance irrigation management in rice farms, allowing rice farmers to continue the tradition of flooding while increasing its performance

Statin therapy in critical illness : an international survey of intensive care physicians' opinions, attitudes and practice

Background Pleotropic effects of statins on inflammation are hypothesised to attenuate the severity of and possibly prevent the occurrence of the host inflammatory response to pathogen and infection-related acute organ failure. We conducted an international survey of intensive care physicians in Australia, New Zealand (ANZ) and United Kingdom (UK). The aims of the survey were to assess the current prescribing practice patterns, attitudes towards prescribing statin therapy in critically ill patients and opinions on the need for an interventional trial of statin therapy in critically ill patients. Methods Survey questions were developed through an iterative process. An expert group reviewed the resulting 26 items for face and content validity and clarity. The questions were further refined following pilot testing by ICU physicians from Australia, Canada and the UK. We used the online Smart SurveyTM software to administer the survey. Results Of 239 respondents (62 from ANZ and 177 from UK) 58% worked in teaching hospitals; most (78.2%) practised in ‘closed’ units with a mixed medical and surgical case mix (71.0%). The most frequently prescribed statins were simvastatin (77.6%) in the UK and atorvastatin (66.1%) in ANZ. The main reasons cited to explain the choice of statin were preadmission prescription and pharmacy availability. Most respondents reported never starting statins to prevent (65.3%) or treat (89.1%) organ dysfunction. Only a minority (10%) disagreed with a statement that the risks of major side effects of statins when prescribed in critically ill patients were low. The majority (84.5%) of respondents strongly agreed that a clinical trial of statins for prevention is needed. More than half (56.5%) favoured rates of organ failure as the primary outcome for such a trial, while a minority (40.6%) favoured mortality. Conclusions Despite differences in type of statins prescribed, critical care physicians in the UK and ANZ reported similar prescription practices. Respondents from both communities agreed that a trial is needed to test whether statins can prevent the onset of new organ failure in patients with sepsis

Network Sensitivity of Systemic Risk

A growing body of studies on systemic risk in financial markets has emphasized the key importance of taking into consideration the complex interconnections among financial institutions. Much effort has been put in modeling the contagion dynamics of financial shocks, and to assess the resilience of specific financial markets - either using real network data, reconstruction techniques or simple toy networks. Here we address the more general problem of how shock propagation dynamics depends on the topological details of the underlying network. To this end we consider different realistic network topologies, all consistent with balance sheets information obtained from real data on financial institutions. In particular, we consider networks of varying density and with different block structures, and diversify as well in the details of the shock propagation dynamics. We confirm that the systemic risk properties of a financial network are extremely sensitive to its network features. Our results can aid in the design of regulatory policies to improve the robustness of financial markets

Risk perceptions about personal Internet-of-Things: Research directions from a multi-panel Delphi study

Internet-of-Things (IoT) research has primarily focused on identifying IoT devices\u27 organizational risks with little attention to consumer perceptions about IoT device risks. The purpose of this study is to understand consumer risk perceptions for personal IoT devices and translate these perceptions into guidance for future research directions. We conduct a sequential, mixed-methods study using multi-panel Delphi and thematic analysis techniques to understand consumer risk perceptions. The results identify four themes focused on data exposure and user experiences within IoT devices. Our thematic analysis also identified several emerging risks associated with the evolution of IoT device functionality and its potential positioning as a resource for malicious actors to conduct security attacks

Optimising the electrochemical reduction of CO2 to oxalic acid in propylene carbonate

Carbon dioxide (captured from the atmosphere or obtained by other routes) constitutes a useful and widely-available building block for producing numerous valuable chemicals and fuels. Electrochemical methods for carbon dioxide reduction offer advantages in terms of scalability, the prospect of coupling directly to renewable power sources and the ability to reduce carbon dioxide without the co-production of harmful by-products. Of the various possible products of carbon dioxide electroreduction, oxalate/oxalic acid is an especially attractive target on account of its wide use in a number of chemical and pharmaceutical processes. Herein, we report the results of a study on carbon dioxide electroreduction to oxalate/oxalic acid in a propylene carbonate solvent system, catalysed by the addition of benzonitrile. Our results show that the use of benzonitrile as a homogeneous electrocatalyst improves the Faradaic and reaction yields of oxalate/oxalic acid production, as well as the area-normalised rate of formation of oxalate/oxalic acid, giving a new record rate of formation of 1.65 ± 0.35 mM cm−2 h−1 (averaged over 1 h) at a voltage of ‒2.7 V vs SCE (‒2.46 V vs SHE). Such metrics in turn suggest that the electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide to C2+ products via oxalate could be a promising avenue for further development for the sustainable production of key chemical feedstocks

Network sensitivity of systemic risk

A growing body of studies on systemic risk in financial markets has emphasized the key importance of taking into consideration the complex interconnections among financial institutions. Much effort has been put into modeling the contagion dynamics of financial shocks and into assessing the resilience of specific financial markets, either using real network data, reconstruction techniques or simple toy networks. Here, we address the more general problem of how shock propagation dynamics depend on the topological details of the underlying network. To this end, we consider different realistic network topologies, all consistent with balance sheet information obtained from real data on financial institutions. In particular, we consider networks of varying density and with different block structures. In addition, we diversify in the details of the shock propagation dynamics. We confirm that the systemic risk properties of a financial network are extremely sensitive to its network features. Our results can aid in the design of regulatory policies to improve the robustness of financial markets

RSNA International Trends: A Global Perspective on the COVID-19 Pandemic and Radiology in Late 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged and changed our healthcare systems around the world. There has been a heterogeneity of disease burden, healthcare resources, and non-imaging testing availability, both geographically and over time. In parallel, there has been a continued increase in understanding of how the disease affects patients, effectiveness of therapeutic options, and factors that modulate transmission risk. Here we detail experiences from radiology experts in representative countries from around the world, to share insights gained from local experience. These insights provide a guidepost to help address management challenges as cases continue to rise in many parts of the world and suggest modifications in workflow that are likely to continue after this pandemic subsides

Rilevazione nazionale in tema di formazione specifica di medicina generale in Italia

Physicians have to get a \u201cspecific\u201d diploma attending a threeyear training course provided by each regional health service in order to practice as General Practitioners in Italy. In the last years, there has been an ongoing debate about the need to evolve the specific regional courses into integrated specialization training courses, organized and managed by universities with the contribution of regional health services. The Italian Junior Doctors Association and the Giotto Movement carried out a national survey with the aim to identify strengths and weaknesses of the specific regional training courses. Three-hundred-two junior General Practitioners in training (61,2% females) answered to a web administered questionnaire. Only about half of the recruited trainees has defined as at least \u201csufficient\u201d the training provided by the regional courses. The survey documented in the Italian General Practitioners trainees the need to satisfy an educational demand in order to implement their primary care and general practice skills. In conclusion, this cross-sectional study provided sufficient evidences supporting the evolution of the regional training courses into general practice and primary care specialization schools