Transportation and Smart City Imaginaries: A Critical Analysis of Proposals for the USDOT Smart City Challenge

Scholarly attention to the development of “smart cities” around the globe has been focused on the nature of these cities, and visions of the futures that these developments would provide for individuals, communities, and institutions. Much of the research about these information-intensive projects has been focused on the description of these cities in terms of their primary socioeconomic goals and on the influential roles in their development being played by globally active information technology firms. An important, but underexplored, focus of this research has been an examination of how local and regional governments have envisioned these projects. This article responds to that challenge through a critical analysis of proposals submitted to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s (USDOT) Smart City Challenge. We associate the choice of population references used in these proposals with the socioeconomic characteristics of these cities and then examine the nature of changes made in the proposals by the seven finalists

The normalization of online campaigning in the web.2.0 era

This article is based on a comparative study of online campaigning and its effects by country and over time, using four of the largest European Union member states (France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom) as a case study. Our research explores the extent of embeddedness of online campaigning, the strategic uses of the whole online environment and in particular the use of the interactive features associated with web.2.0 era. However, our research goes beyond studies of online campaigning as we also determine whether online campaigning across platforms matters in electoral terms. Our data support the normalization hypothesis which shows overall low levels of innovation but that the parties with the highest resources tend to develop online campaigns with the highest functionality. We find that there is a vote dividend for those parties which utilized web.2.0 features the most and so offered visitors to their web presence a more interactive experience

Risk-adjusted CUSUM control charts for shared frailty survival models with application to hip replacement outcomes: a study using the NJR dataset

Background:  Continuous monitoring of surgical outcomes after joint replacement is needed to detect which brands’ components have a higher than expected failure rate and are therefore no longer recommended to be used in surgical practice. We developed a monitoring method based on cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart specifically for this application.  Methods:  Our method entails the use of the competing risks model with the Weibull and the Gompertz hazard functions adjusted for observed covariates to approximate the baseline time-to-revision and time-to-death distributions, respectively. The correlated shared frailty terms for competing risks, corresponding to the operating unit, are also included in the model. A bootstrap-based boundary adjustment is then required for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to guarantee a given probability of the false alarm rates. We propose a method to evaluate the CUSUM scores and the adjusted boundary for a survival model with the shared frailty terms. We also introduce a unit performance quality score based on the posterior frailty distribution. This method is illustrated using the 2003-2012 hip replacement data from the UK National Joint Registry (NJR). Results:  We found that the best model included the shared frailty for revision but not for death. This means that the competing risks of revision and death are independent in NJR data. Our method was superior to the standard NJR methodology. For one of the two monitored components, it produced alarms four years before the increased failure rate came to the attention of the UK regulatory authorities. The hazard ratios of revision across the units varied from 0.38 to 2.28. Conclusions:  An earlier detection of failure signal by our method in comparison to the standard method used by the NJR may be explained by proper risk-adjustment and the ability to accommodate time-dependent hazards. The continuous monitoring of hip replacement outcomes should include risk adjustment at both the individual and unit level

Public Managers, Media Influence, and Governance: Three Research Traditions Empirically Explored

Nowadays, media and media logic have become important and inherent elements in everyday practices of public administration and policy making. However, the logic of the media is often very different from, and conflicting with, the logic of political and administrative life. So the question of how public managers experience and deal with media attention is more relevant than ever. An analytical sketch of the literature on the relationship between public managers and media provides three main categories of literature (public relations, agenda, and mediatization tradition). These three categories are used to develop statements (so-called Q-sort statements) to capture the way public managers experience thei

Do Health and Forensic DNA Databases Increase Racial Disparities?

Peter Chow-White and Troy Duster examine the question of whether the "digital divide" in health and forensic DNA databases is contributing to racial disparities

State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available deathdata within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on therate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate thatRtwas only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals

Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national lockdowns. In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number – a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain. We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of lockdown (11th March), although with a high level of uncertainty. Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented all interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population. The proportion of the population infected to date – the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics. Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of SARS-Cov-2 is slowing

Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling

The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic

The Role of Presenilin and its Interacting Proteins in the Biogenesis of Alzheimer’s Beta Amyloid

The biogenesis and accumulation of the beta amyloid protein (Aβ) is a key event in the cascade of oxidative and inflammatory processes that characterises Alzheimer’s disease. The presenilins and its interacting proteins play a pivotal role in the generation of Aβ from the amyloid precursor protein (APP). In particular, three proteins (nicastrin, aph-1 and pen-2) interact with presenilins to form a large multi-subunit enzymatic complex (γ-secretase) that cleaves APP to generate Aβ. Reconstitution studies in yeast and insect cells have provided strong evidence that these four proteins are the major components of the γ-secretase enzyme. Current research is directed at elucidating the roles that each of these protein play in the function of this enzyme. In addition, a number of presenilin interacting proteins that are not components of γ-secretase play important roles in modulating Aβ production. This review will discuss the components of the γ-secretase complex and the role of presenilin interacting proteins on γ-secretase activity