Limits and Criticalities of Predictions and Forecasting in Complex Social and Economic Scenarios: A Cybernetics Key

Predictions play a key role in assuring the status of “rationality” in decisions. Nevertheless, in the field of social sciences and economics, predictions fail to correctly depict the oncoming scenarios. Why is it so difficult to achieve quantitative prediction of social and economic systems? Can science provide reliable predictions of social and economic paths that can be used to implement effective interventions? As in the notorious “El Farol bar problem” depicted by Brian Arthur (Am Econ Rev 84:406–411, 1994), the validity of predictive models is more a social issue than a matter of good mathematics. Predictability in social systems is due to limited knowledge of society and human behavior. We do not yet have worldwide, quantitative knowledge of human social behavior; for instance, the perception of certain issues or the predisposition to adopt certain behaviors. Though tremendous progress has been made in recent years in data gathering thanks to the development of new technologies and the consequent increase in computational power, social and economic models still rely on assumptions of rationality that undermine their predictive effectiveness. Through some theoretical and epistemological reflections, we propose a way in which the cybernetic paradigm of complexity management can be used for better decision-making in complex scenarios with a comprising, dynamic, and evolving approach. We will show how a cybernetic approach can help to overcome the fear of uncertainty and serve as an effective tool for improving decisions and actions

University Incubator as Catalyst of Resources for Academic Spin-Offs. The Case of ARCA Consortium

Today we can observe an increasing proliferation of new academic spin-off initiatives aimed to transfer knowledge from the university to the market. Due to their strategic role in enhancing the development of technological innovation, academic spin-offs can attain high levels of social performance and consonance with their environment. At the same time, they must overcome many difficulties if they are to achieve a high level of financial performance and growth. They are often considered to be mere vehicles for the transmission of knowledge, implying that their entrepreneurial potential is not fully exploited. According to the Resource Based View (RBV) the competitive disadvantage of an academic spin-off is due to a lack of resources. This paper will join this stream of research in order to analyze the financial performance of academic spin-offs. We examine the case of Arca Consortium’s incubator, established by the University of Palermo, and of the academic spin-offs it has supported and continues to assist. The empirical analysis, based on two linear regression models, is performed based on 19 case studies of spin-offs created between 2007 and 2009 by academicians of the University of Palerm

The Drivers of Customer Satisfaction in the Hospitality Industry. Applying the Kano Model to Sicilian Hotels

Starting from the assessment that hotels need to embrace a managerial approach oriented towards customer satisfaction, we adopt the Kano model to identify the relevant drivers of satisfaction of hotels guest in the main cities of Sicily, Italy. This study analyzes the customer satisfaction requirements for Sicilian hotels in order to suggest and weigh a set of key attributes that hotel managers need to consider in order to create an attractive offer. We base our analysis on the qualitative data collected through 600 questionnaires submitted to hotel guests of twenty Sicilian three-star hotels located in city downtowns, in different provinces and locations

The drivers of customer satisfaction for academic library services: managerial hints from an empirical study on two Italian university libraries using the Kano model

The intent of this qualitative research is to investigate and understand the requisites of customer satisfaction for academic libraries’ users and to give managerial hints for the implementation of user centred academic library services. To this aim, we analyse the library services of two Italian Universities (the Faculty of Economics of University of Palermo and the Central Library of the University of Salerno) to find relations and congruencies and to evaluate the perceived relevance of the tangible and intangible aspects of these services. In the preliminary phase of the research, we conducted both focus groups and individual interviews involving students or researchers who regularly use the library services. This study supplies a significant analysis of qualitative data that can be functional for researchers and for university managers to plan strategic and operative activities in order to improve academic library services

Designing a Mobile App for Museums According to the Drivers of Visitor Satisfaction

The aim of this study is to identify the key factors as antecedents of visitor satisfaction for the design of a mobile app for museums. To our aim we use the Kano model that allows to categorize service attributes according to how they are perceived by customers and to estimate their impact on customer satisfaction. We collected qualitative data trough 300 questionnaires administered to tourists visiting the Sicilian cities of Palermo and Trapani over a period of 3 months (October- December 2012). The results of our analysis can be relevant for museum and public managers to plan strategic and operative activities, for researcher in the field of touristic marketing, for application developers, and for all those concerned with touristic and cultural heritage issues

Biomechanical performance of the Bicaval Transcatheter System for the treatment of severe tricuspid regurgitation

Introduction: Tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is a relatively common valvular disease, which can result from structural abnormalities of any anatomic part of the tricuspid valve. Severe TR is linked to congestive heart failure and hemodynamic impairment, resulting in high mortality when repaired by elective surgery. This study was undertaken to quantify the structural and hemodynamic performance of the novel Transcatheter Bicaval Valves System (TricValve) percutaneously implanted in the superior vena cava (SVC) and inferior vena cava (IVC) of two patients with severe TR and venous congestion. Methods: After developing the SVC and IVC device models, the contact pressure exerted on the vena cava wall was obtained by computational analysis. Both smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and computational fluid dynamics were carried out to quantify caval reflux in the right atrium and the pressure field of pre- and post-TricValve scenarios, respectively. Results: Analysis of contact pressure highlighted the main anchoring area of the SVC device occurring near the SVC device belly, while the IVC device exerted pronounced forces in the device’s proximal and distal parts. SPH-related flow velocities revealed the absence of caval reflux, and a decrease in time-averaged pressure was observed near the SVC and IVC after TricValve implantation. Discussion: Findings demonstrated the potential of computational tools for enhancing our understanding of the biomechanical performance of structural tricuspid valve interventions and improving the way we design next-generation transcatheter therapies to treat the tricuspid valve with heterotopic caval valve implantation

52-56 A STUDY OF SELF-POLLINATION AND CROSS-POLLINATION IN AVOCADO (PERSEA AMERICANA MILL.) CV. HASS OF DIFFERENT VARIETIES

Abstract The following study was carried out al "La Palma!' Experimental Center of de Faculty of Agronomy of de Catholic University of Valparaiso, for the evaluation of the influence of different avocado varieties as pollinators of Hass. A Hass test field (planted l0xl0m.) was used, containing sections with different pollinators planted in 1975. Pollinators are distributed in quincunce in the Hass planting, belonging to the Bacon, Edranol, Hass, Rincon and Zutano varieties. The control was a section with only Hass trees planted without pollinators. The aim was to determine for each combination and the control the percentages of self-pollination and cross-pollination in the descendants of the Hass fruits by analyzing the origin of parental pollen in fruit embryos using isoenzymes as genetic markers; thereby enabling a determination of which varieties behave better as pollinators of Hass under local conditions in the Quillota area. Electrophoresis test in starch gels at 11% concentrations were carried out using 14 isoenzymatic systems of GOT-1, GOT-2, PGI-2, PGM-1, PGM-2, LAP-1, LAP-2, EST-FL, MDIL TPI-2, SKDH-1, SKDH-2, 6-PGD-2, 6-PGD-3 and 6-PGD-4. The analyzed fruit was collected from October 1994 to January 1995. The results showed Hass to be weak self-pollinator, being easily displaced by pollen from other parental plant when found associated to other varieties. The pollinators which provided the highest cross-pollination results in their combinations were Zutano, Edranol and Bacon cultivars, presenting no significant differences between them. Rincon variety proved a weak pollinator for Hass

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 N protein allelic variants by rapid high-throughput CLEIA antigen assay

We report the data obtained using an automated chemiluminescence enzyme immunoassay (CLEIA) for rapid antigen detection of SARS-CoV-2 with a number of variants

Equianalgesia, opioid switch and opioid association in different clinical settings: a narrative review

Emergency or postoperative pain often represents an authentic challenge in patients who were already on opioid treatment for chronic pain. Thus. their management requires not only the physician's ability to treat acute pain. but also competence in switching the opioid that lost efficacy. Different aspects should be considered, such as opioids titration, switching, association and equianalgesia.The objective of this paper is to provide a narrative review. which has been elaborated and discussed among clinicians through an iterative process involving development and review of the draft during two web-based meetings and via email. This expert opinion aims to facilitate the correct opioid use through appropriate practices with a focus on pain treatment in emergency and postoperative pain.Equianalgesia tables were reviewed and integrated by clinicians and researchers with expertise in anesthesia, postoperative medicine, intensive care, emergency medicine pharmacology and addiction medicine. Special populations (liver/kidney failure. elder, pediatric, pregnancy/lactation) are discussed in detail along with other critical scenarios, such as: (i) rapid pain worsening in chronic pain (aggravating pain due to disease progression or tolerance development to analgesic therapy): (ii) acute pain on maintenance treatment: and (iii) pain management of complicated patients in emergency care.Extended and updated equianalgesia tables and conversion rates for 17 different opioid formulations (of 9 different molecules) are presented as follows.Opioids remain the class that best suits clinical needs of emergency and post-operative medicine. However, it should be stressed that equianalgesia can be affected by drug-to-drug interactions and pharmacological imprecision. in a complex field where clinical experience may be the main guiding principle