Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups

The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that captures the latent states underlying the dynamics of the group and thus its activity profile is developed. The simplest setting of $d=2$ corresponds to the case where the dynamics are coarsely quantized as Active and Inactive, respectively. A state estimation strategy that exploits the underlying HMM structure is then developed for spurt detection and tracking. This strategy is shown to track even nonpersistent changes that last only for a short duration at the cost of learning the underlying model. Case studies with real terrorism data from open-source databases are provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS682 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Emission spectrum of a dipole in a semi-infinite periodic dielectric structure: effect of the boundary

Journal ArticleThe emission spectrum of a dipole embedded in a semi-infinite photonic crystal is calculated. For simplicity we study the case in which the dielectric function is sinusoidally modulated only along the direction perpendicular to the boundary surface plane. In addition to oscillations of the emission rate with the distance of the dipole from the interface, we also observed that the shape of the emission spectrum srongly depends on the initial phase of the dielectric modulation. When the direction of light propagation inside the periodic structure is not normal to the boundary surface plane, we observed aditional singularities in the emission spectrum, which arise due to different angle dependence of the Bragg stop band for TE and TM polarizations

The use of long-acting insulin degludec in adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in real clinical practice in Russia

BACKGROUND: Effective glycaemic control remains the most important task in managing the risks of Diabetes type 2 complications development. In this regard, the choice of insulin preparations with minimal variability of action is of utmost importance since this approach allows achieving the maximum treatment effectiveness and adequate safety level.AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate insulin degludec treatment effect on glycemic control in adult patients with Diabetes Mellitus (DM) type 2 in a real-world clinical setting in the Russian Federation.MATERIALS AND METHODS: The open prospective study was conducted in 2020–2021 in 35 clinical centers in 31 cities of the Russian Federation. The study included adult patients with type 2 DM treated according to Russian routine clinical practice. The prospective follow-up period was 26 weeks. The main study endpoints were changes in HbA1c level, fasting plasma glucose, insulin daily doses, number, and characteristics of different types of hypoglycaemia episodes and adverse events (AEs), and patient preferences compared to previous treatment.RESULTS: The study enrolled 494 patients. By the end of follow-up period:The mean HbA1c decrease was 1.6% (p<0.0001).Fasting plasma glucose level decreased by 3.4 mmol/L (p<0.0001).Daily basal and prandial insulin doses decreased by 1.6 IU/day (p<0.0001) and 2.1 IU/day (p<0.01), respectively.Severe episodes of hypoglycemia did not occur, while the incidence of nonsevere episodes decreased significantly.76 patients (15.4%) had 105 AEs, of which 41 (in 33 patients, 6.7%) were serious.COVID-19 was the most frequent AE reported in 21 patients (4.3%).Only in one case insulin degludec was withdrawn due to the patient’s pregnancy and the AEs that arose from it.Most patients (98.6%) preferred insulin degludec to previous treatment.CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in glycemic control, accompanied by basal insulin dose decrease combined with the absence of severe episodes of hypoglycemia, and significant decrease of nonsevere episodes (total and nocturnal). These results led to a large proportion of patients wanting to continue insulin degludec treatment preferring the medicine over previous treatment

Оценка воздействия налогово-бюджетной политики на экономический рост в Республике Армения

Fiscal policy plays a crucial role in ensuring economic growth and development in the country and overcoming economic recessions. The subject of the research is the tax system in the Republic of Armenia. The study aims to identify and assess the impact of the fiscal policy on economic growth in the Republic of Armenia. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the Armenian economy has been in stagnation, reaching pre-crisis GDP levels only in 2018. Both theory and practice point to the ambiguous nature of the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth. At the same time, the 2020 crisis caused by the pandemic exacerbated the situation by focusing the attention of economists on fiscal policy to stimulate the real sector of the economy, which justifies the relevance of the current study. The paper’s novelty lies in assessing the impact of certain types of taxes on the economic growth rates in Armenia. To achieve the goal of the study, the authors use such methods as a comparative analysis of foreign studies and systemic and statistical analysis. To econometrically assess the impact of taxes on economic growth in the country, a vector autoregression (VAR) model was applied. As a result of the study, the authors found that both tax regulation in general and the individual taxes are restrictive in nature and have a negative impact on economic growth in the country. The authors conclude that such a restrictive policy has led to a slowdown in economic growth in the Republic of Armenia over the past decadesФискальная политика играет ключевую роль как в  обеспечении экономического роста и  развития в  стране, так и  в  преодолении экономических спадов. Предметом исследования является налогово-бюджетная политика Республики Армения (РА). Цель исследования — выявление и оценка влияния налоговой политики на экономический рост в РА. После глобального финансового кризиса 2008 г. экономика Армении находится в стагнации, достигнув предкризисного уровня ВВП только в 2018 г. Как теория, так и практика указывают на неоднозначный характер воздействия фискальной политики на экономический рост в то время, как кризис 2020 г., вызванный пандемией, обострил ситуацию, сфокусировав внимание экономистов на налогово-бюджетной политике для стимулирования реального сектора экономики, что и обосновывает актуальность настоящего исследования. Новизна работы состоит в оценке воздействия отдельных видов налогов на темпы экономического роста в Армении. Для достижения поставленной цели авторы исследования используют такие методы, как сравнительный анализ зарубежных исследований, системный и статистический анализ. В целях эконометрической оценки воздействия налогов на экономический рост в стране применена модель векторной авторегрессии (VAR). В результате исследования авторами было выявлено, что как налоговое регулирование в целом, так и по отдельным налогам носит сдерживающий характер и имеет негативное влияние на темпы экономического роста в стране. Сделан вывод, что такая сдерживающая политика на протяжении последних десятилетий привела к замедлению темпов экономического роста в Республике Армения

Graphene-zinc oxide based nanomaterials for gas sensing devices

Herein, we report the preparation of a hybrid material by combination of modified graphene and ZnO. The morphological and compositional analyses of the obtained material have been performed by means of scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray analysis. The functional properties of the prepared structures have been investigated for their application in gas sensor devices. The gas sensing performance of the hybrid material show that the structure can be used for fabrication of chemical sensors, as well as in electronic nose technology. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd

Physiological aspects of educational training adaptation of students

20 healthy male and female students of Artsakh State University aged 18-20 years have participated in an experiment to study the mechanisms of training adaptation. Surveys were conducted during the academic semester in 2 stages: the non-examination period (March-April) - Monday and Friday, before and after school and during the examination period (May-June) - before and after the exam. In order to study the impact of mental stress a survey was also conducted among students once they complete mental or intellectual Eysenck test. A psychological testing of students was carried out to identify the level of intelligence (IQ) by Eysenck, personal and situational anxiety by Spielberger and health, activity, mood by SAN (HAM) questionnaire. Basic hemodynamic parameters were measured: heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. ECG examination was conducted using R.M. Baevsky's cardio-ervalography method. Comparative analysis of the dynamics of the studied parameters showed that the process of adaptation of students to the teaching load is accompanied by periods of decline during non-examination period, more vividly expressed when doing mental or intellectual work, and tension of the studied parameters during the examination period