Second thoughts on second moments : panel evidence on asset-based models of currency crises

The literature on speculative attacks has been given new impetus by the collapse of the European currency arrangements beginning in 1992, by the Mexican peso crisis and after-effects in 1994, and most recently by speculative attacks across Asia. One stand of this literature stresses the importance of imbalances in stocks of monetary and financial aggregates rather than traditional"flow"factors, arguing that massive, volatile capital flows have become a dominant feature of the global landscape, and that exchange-rate levels and current accounts have not proved convincing as proximate causes of crises. The authors test two popular asset-based models of speculative attacks -- Krugman and Rotemberg (1992) and Calvo and Mendoza (1995) -- especially their emphasis on the second moments of monetary aggregates. Analyzing monthly panels of appropriate countries in three regions, they find evidence for the importance of money/reserve ratios predicted by both models, and their variance as predicted by Calvo and Mendoza. But the variance of velocity does not appear to be important, casting some doubt on the Krugman-Rotemberg target zone framework and the interpretation of the Calvo-Mendoza results.Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Theory&Research,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Macroeconomic Management,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Stabilization

Limitations and usefulness of maximum daily shrinkage (MDS) and trunk growth rate (TGR) indicators in the irrigation scheduling of table olive trees

8 páginas.-- 7 figuras.-- 2 tablas.-- 32 referenciasMaximum daily trunk shrinkage (MDS) is the most popular indicator derived from trunk diameter fluctuations in most fruit trees and has been reported to be one of the earliest signs in the detection of water stress. However, in some species such as olive trees (. Olea europaea L.), MDS does not usually change in water stress conditions and trunk growth rate (TGR) has been suggested as better indicator. Most of this lack of sensitivity to drought conditions has been related to the relationship between the MDS and the water potential. This curvilinear relationship produces an uncertain zone were great variations of water potential do not imply any changes of MDS. The MDS signal, the ratio between measured MDS and estimated MDS with full irrigation, has been thought to be a better indicator than MDS, as it reduces the effect of the environment. On the other hand, though literature results suggest an effect of environment in TGR values, there are not clear relationship between this indicator and meteorological data. The aims of this work are, on one hand, to study the improvements of the baseline approach in the MDS signal and, on the other, study the influence of several meteorological variables in TGR. Three years' data from an irrigation experiment were used in to carry out the MDS analysis and six years' data for full irrigated trees during pit hardening period were used for TGR study. The comparison between MDS vs. water potential and MDS signal vs. water potential presented a great scattering in both relationships. Values of MDS signal between 1.1 and 1.4 were always identified with moderate water stress conditions (-1.4 to -2. MPa of water potential). However, since this MDS signal values are around the maximum in the curvilineal relationship with water potential, greater values of MDS signal (in the range of 1.1-1.4) were not necessary lower values of water potential. In addition, during low fruit load seasons MDS signal was not an accurate indicator. On the other hand, absolute values of several climatological measurements were not significantly related with TGR. Only daily increments explain part of the variations of TGR in full irrigated trees. In all the data analysed, the daily increment of average vapour pressure deficit was the best indicator related with TGR. The increase of this indicator decreased TGR values. In addition, the agreement between this indicator and TGR was affected for fruit load. Great yield seasons decrease the influence of VPD increment in TGR.This research was supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN), (AGL2010-19201-CO4-03). Thanks are due to J. Rodriguez and A. Montero for help with field measurements.Peer reviewe

Bactericidal Activity, Isolation and Identification of Most Active Compound from 20 Plants used in Traditional Mexican Medicine Against Multidrug-Resistant Bacteria

Abstract Background and Objective: Plants are used in Mexico as traditional medicine for the treatment of diverse illnesses such as stomach pain, fever, diarrhea, insomnia, flu and other respiratory diseases. Twenty were selected to determine their bactericidal activity. The aim of this study was the isolation of molecules from plants used in Mexican traditional medicine. Materials and Methods: Using chromatographic procedures, the responsible bactericidal molecules from rosemary was extracted and then identified by spectroscopic analysis IR, 1H NMR, 13C NMR, DEPT, HSQC and GC-MS. Measures of central tendency were determined by statistical analysis. Results: Ten of these plants showed bactericidal activity against multidrug-resistant bacteria. This biological activity was reported for Carya illinoensis against Pseudomonas aeruginosa , also for Equisetum robustum , Stevia rebaudiana and Castela texana against Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). The methanolic extract of Rosmarinus officinalis (rosemary) showed important bactericidal activity against MRSA (ATCC BAA-44) and clinically isolated MRSA. Conclusion: Rosemary’s bactericidal molecules were isolated and then identified as a mixture of betulinic, oleanolic and ursolic acid (MIC = 725 µg mLG1). Key words: Rosmarinus officinalis , multidrug-resistance, MRSA, thin layer chromatography, flash chromatography, 1H NMR, 13C NMR, triterpenic acid

Modelo acústico virtual de la catedral renacentista de Jaén

La catedral de Jaén es una de las joyas arquitectónicas del renacimiento español, que sirvió de modelo para la construcción de otras catedrales en España y América. Se han determinado experimentalmente los parámetros acústicos en su interior, y se han utilizado para ajustar un modelo 3D con el fin de recrear virtualmente su comportamiento acústico actual, el cual servirá de base para analizar comportamientos pretéritos o valorar posibles intervenciones futuras. En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de este proceso de ajuste y se analiza el comporta-miento acústico del espacio, en términos de los valores de los parámetros medidos y simula-dos, para la posición preeminente de la fuente: el altar mayor.The Cathedral of Jaen is one of the gems of Spanish Renaissance architecture, which served as a model for the construction of other cathedrals in Spain and America. Its experimental acoustic parameters have been determined, and employed to adjust a 3D model in order to vir-tually recreate its current acoustic behaviour. This model provides a basis for the analysis of acoustics of historical events and of possible future interventions. In this paper, the results of this adjustment process are presented and the acoustic behaviour of the space is analysed in terms of the values of measured and simulated parameters for the preeminent position of the source: the high altar

An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis

Recent empirical and theoretical literature on the impact of real exchange rate devaluations on economic performance questions the traditional expansionary effect generated within standard Mundell-Fleming models. Contractionary devaluations may arise when firms face maturity or currency mismatches that, when faced with real exchange rate depreciations, lead to balance-sheet effects that erode firms' wealth and lead to an output contraction. While some authors show that the standard Mundell-Fleming result may hold even in the presence of currency mismatches, others point out that, if the balance sheet effect is large enough, devaluations can be contractionary. Using a large panel of 57 countries across the world and various newly constructed measures of dollarization, we test whether the balance sheet effect hypothesis has been relevant during the past decades in explaining economic downturns. Additionally, we explore the channels through which devaluations can be contractionary; in particular, we explore whether investment and consumption decisions are negatively affected by exchange rate devaluations under currency mismatches

Better the Devil that You Know: Evidence on Entry Costs Faced by Foreign Banks

Institutional and legal differences between countries increase entry costs and reduce the ability of banks to expand abroad. We use bilateral foreign banking data for 176 countries to estimate a gravity model in which bilateral cross-border banking activity is explained, in addition to standard variables, by legal and institutional differences. We find that foreign banking is negatively affected by absolute differences in the legal setup and in basic institutions between source and host countries. Differences in the legal origin, for example, reduce bilateral participation in the banking system by nearly 11 percent. Additionally we do not find strong evidence suggesting asymmetries in adapting to better or worse institutional/legal environments

Creditor Rights and the Credit Market: Where Do We Stand?

A recent survey has shown that the major problem faced by firms in Latin American countries is difficulty in accessing financial markets. Figure 1 summarizes the findings of the Business Environment Survey on obstacles faced by firms

Financial Integration and Foreign Banks in Latin America: How Do They Impact the Transmission of External Financial Shocks?

This paper explores the impact of international financial integration on credit markets in Latin America, using a cross-country dataset covering 17 countries between 1996 and 2008. It is found that financial integration amplifies the impact of international financial shocks on aggregate credit and interest rate fluctuations. Nonetheless, the net impact of integration on deepening credit markets dominates for the large majority of states of nature. The paper also uses a detailed bank-level dataset that covers more than 500 banks for a similar time period to explore the role of financial integrationcaptured through the participation of foreign banksin propagating external shocks. It is found that interest rates charged and loans supplied by foreign-owned banks respond more to external financial shocks than those supplied by domestically owned banks. This does not hold for all foreign banks. Spanish banks in the sample behave more like domestic banks and do not amplify the impact of foreign shocks on credit and interest rates