Abandon Statistical Significance

We discuss problems the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm poses for replication and more broadly in the biomedical and social sciences as well as how these problems remain unresolved by proposals involving modified p-value thresholds, confidence intervals, and Bayes factors. We then discuss our own proposal, which is to abandon statistical significance. We recommend dropping the NHST paradigm--and the p-value thresholds intrinsic to it--as the default statistical paradigm for research, publication, and discovery in the biomedical and social sciences. Specifically, we propose that the p-value be demoted from its threshold screening role and instead, treated continuously, be considered along with currently subordinate factors (e.g., related prior evidence, plausibility of mechanism, study design and data quality, real world costs and benefits, novelty of finding, and other factors that vary by research domain) as just one among many pieces of evidence. We have no desire to "ban" p-values or other purely statistical measures. Rather, we believe that such measures should not be thresholded and that, thresholded or not, they should not take priority over the currently subordinate factors. We also argue that it seldom makes sense to calibrate evidence as a function of p-values or other purely statistical measures. We offer recommendations for how our proposal can be implemented in the scientific publication process as well as in statistical decision making more broadly

RNA aptamers generated against oligomeric Abeta40 recognize common amyloid aptatopes with low specificity but high sensitivity.

Aptamers are useful molecular recognition tools in research, diagnostics, and therapy. Despite promising results in other fields, aptamer use has remained scarce in amyloid research, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD is a progressive neurodegenerative disease believed to be caused by neurotoxic amyloid beta-protein (Abeta) oligomers. Abeta oligomers therefore are an attractive target for development of diagnostic and therapeutic reagents. We used covalently-stabilized oligomers of the 40-residue form of Abeta (Abeta40) for aptamer selection. Despite gradually increasing the stringency of selection conditions, the selected aptamers did not recognize Abeta40 oligomers but reacted with fibrils of Abeta40, Abeta42, and several other amyloidogenic proteins. Aptamer reactivity with amyloid fibrils showed some degree of protein-sequence dependency. Significant fibril binding also was found for the naïve library and could not be eliminated by counter-selection using Abeta40 fibrils, suggesting that aptamer binding to amyloid fibrils was RNA-sequence-independent. Aptamer binding depended on fibrillogenesis and showed a lag phase. Interestingly, aptamers detected fibril formation with > or =15-fold higher sensitivity than thioflavin T (ThT), revealing substantial beta-sheet and fibril formation undetected by ThT. The data suggest that under physiologic conditions, aptamers for oligomeric forms of amyloidogenic proteins cannot be selected due to high, non-specific affinity of oligonucleotides for amyloid fibrils. Nevertheless, the high sensitivity, whereby aptamers detect beta-sheet formation, suggests that they can serve as superior amyloid recognition tools

The Observations of Redshift Evolution in Large-Scale Environments (ORELSE) Survey. I. The Survey Design and First Results on CL 0023+0423 at z = 0.84 and RX J1821.6+6827 at z = 0.82

We present the Observations of Redshift Evolution in Large-Scale Environments (ORELSE) Survey, a systematic search for structure on scales greater than 10 h^(–1)_70 Mpc around 20 well-known clusters at redshifts of 0.6 < z < 1.3. The goal of the survey is to examine a statistical sample of dynamically active clusters and large-scale structures in order to quantify galaxy properties over the full range of local and global environments. We describe the survey design, the cluster sample, and our extensive observational data covering at least 25' around each target cluster. We use adaptively smoothed red galaxy density maps from our wide-field optical imaging to identify candidate groups/clusters and intermediate-density large-scale filaments/walls in each cluster field. Because photometric techniques (such as photometric redshifts, statistical overdensities, and richness estimates) can be highly uncertain, the crucial component of this survey is the unprecedented amount of spectroscopic coverage. We are using the wide-field, multiobject spectroscopic capabilities of the Deep Multiobject Imaging Spectrograph to obtain 100-200+ confirmed cluster members in each field. Our survey has already discovered the Cl 1604 supercluster at z ≈ 0.9, a structure which contains at least eight groups and clusters and spans 13 Mpc × 100 Mpc. Here, we present the results on the large-scale environments of two additional clusters, Cl 0023+0423 at z = 0.84 and RX J1821.6+6827 at z = 0.82, which highlight the diversity of global properties at these redshifts. The optically selected Cl 0023+0423 is a four-way group-group merger with constituent groups having measured velocity dispersions between 206 and 479 km s^–1. The galaxy population is dominated by blue, star-forming galaxies, with 80% of the confirmed members showing [O II] emission. The strength of the Hδ line in a composite spectrum of 138 members indicates a substantial contribution from recent starbursts to the overall galaxy population. In contrast, the X-ray-selected RX J1821.6+6827 is a largely isolated, massive cluster with a measured velocity dispersion of 926 ± 77 km s^(–1). The cluster exhibits a well-defined red sequence with a large quiescent galaxy population. The results from these two targets, along with preliminary findings on other ORELSE clusters, suggest that optical selection may be more effective than X-ray surveys at detecting less-evolved, dynamically active systems at these redshifts

SN2007ax : An Extremely Faint Type Ia Supernova

We present multi-band photometric and optical spectroscopic observations of SN2007ax, the faintest and reddest Type Ia supernova (SNIa) yet observed. With M_B = -15.9 and (B-V)max = 1.2, this SN is over half a magnitude fainter at maximum light than any other SNIa. Similar to subluminous SN2005ke, SN2007ax also appears to show excess in UV emission at late time. Traditionally, Delta-m_15(B) has been used to parameterize the decline rate for SNeIa. However, the B-band transition from fast to slow decline occurs sooner than 15 days for faint SNeIa. Therefore we suggest that a more physically motivated parameter, the time of intersection of the two slopes, be used instead. Only by explaining the faintest (and the brightest) supernovae, we can thoroughly understand the physics of thermonuclear explosions. We suggest that future surveys should carefully design their cadence, depth, pointings and follow-up to find an unbiased sample of extremely faint members of this subclass of faint SNeIa.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

The Assembly of the Red Sequence at z ~ 1: The Color and Spectral Properties of Galaxies in the Cl1604 Supercluster

We investigate the properties of the 525 spectroscopically confirmed members of the Cl1604 supercluster at z ~ 0.9 as part of the Observations of Redshift Evolution in Large Scale Environments survey. In particular, we focus on the photometric, stellar mass, morphological, and spectral properties of the 305 member galaxies of the eight clusters and groups that comprise the Cl1604 supercluster. Using an extensive Keck Low-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (LRIS)/DEep Imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph (DEIMOS) spectroscopic database in conjunction with ten-band ground-based, Spitzer, and Hubble Space Telescope imaging, we investigate the buildup of the red sequence in groups and clusters at high redshift. Nearly all of the brightest and most massive red-sequence galaxies present in the supercluster environment are found to lie within the bounds of the cluster and group systems, with a surprisingly large number of such galaxies present in low-mass group systems. Despite the prevalence of these red-sequence galaxies, we find that the average cluster galaxy has a spectrum indicative of a star-forming galaxy, with a star formation rate between those of z ~ 1 field galaxies and moderate-redshift cluster galaxies. The average group galaxy is even more active, exhibiting spectral properties indicative of a starburst. The presence of massive, red galaxies and the high fraction of starbursting galaxies present in the group environment suggest that significant processing is occurring in group environments at z ~ 1 and earlier. There is a deficit of low-luminosity red-sequence galaxies in all Cl1604 clusters and groups, suggesting that such galaxies transition to the red sequence at later times. Extremely massive (~10^(12)M_☉) red-sequence galaxies routinely observed in rich clusters at z ~ 0 are also absent from the Cl1604 clusters and groups. We suggest that such galaxies form at later times through merging processes. There are significant populations of transition galaxies at intermediate stellar masses (log(M_*)=10.25-10.75) present in the group and cluster environments, suggesting that this range is important for the buildup of the red-sequence mass function at z ~ 1. Through a comparison of the transitional populations present in the Cl1604 cluster and group systems, we find evidence that massive blue-cloud galaxies are quenched earliest in the most dynamically relaxed systems and at progressively later times in dynamically unrelaxed systems

Decision-Making Measured by the Iowa Gambling Task in Patients with Alcohol Use Disorders Choosing Harm Reduction versus Relapse Prevention Program

AIMS: Two main therapeutic programs were offered to patients suffering from alcohol use disorders (AUDs): avoid the alcohol by abstinence or controlling their consumption. After information and motivational sessions, the patient chooses his own therapeutic plan. However, patients with AUD exhibit poor decision-making. The purpose of this study was to investigate the decision-making in AUD by comparing patients who chose to reduce and control their consumption to those who chose abstinence program. METHODS: Sixty-seven subjects with alcohol use disorder were included (AUD group) for treatment, choosing either a relapse prevention program (RPP) or a harm reduction program (HRP). Patients were compared to a healthy control group (n = 31). Cognitive skills were assessed through the Montreal Cognitive Assessment test, the National Adult Reading Test, the Trail Making Test and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients with AUD chose the RPP while 30 followed a HRP. The AUD group performed worse than controls on the IGT. The RPP group had significantly lower performance than both HRP and control groups (these later groups being not statistically different). No correlation was observed between the available clinical, cognitive and intellectual measures. CONCLUSION: This study confirms that the decision-making process of patients with an alcohol use disorder is impaired. However, the 2 groups differ on the IGT scores, despite comparable clinical and cognitive profiles. The patients\u27 decision-making abilities could be a useful guide when developing therapeutic programs

Enhanced optical properties of the GaAsN/GaAs quantum-well structure by the insertion of InAs monolayers

Microstructural and optical properties of InAs-inserted and reference single GaAsN/GaAs quantum-well (QW) structures grown by metalorganic chemical vapor deposition were investigated using cross-sectional transmission electron microscopy and photoluminescence (PL). Significant enhancement of PL intensity and a blueshift of PL emission were observed from the InAs-inserted GaAsN/GaAs QW structure, compared with the single GaAsN/GaAs QW structure. Strain compensation and In-induced reduction of N incorporation are suggested to be two major factors affecting the optical properties.The authors would like to thank the Commonwealth Department of Education, Science, and Training and the Australian Research Council for their financial support

An Upper Mass Limit on a Red Supergiant Progenitor for the Type II-Plateau Supernova SN 2006my

We analyze two pre-supernova (SN) and three post-SN high-resolution images of the site of the Type II-Plateau supernova SN 2006my in an effort to either detect the progenitor star or to constrain its properties. Following image registration, we find that an isolated stellar object is not detected at the location of SN 2006my in either of the two pre-SN images. In the first, an I-band image obtained with the Wide-Field and Planetary Camera 2 on board the Hubble Space Telescope, the offset between the SN 2006my location and a detected source ("Source 1") is too large: > 0.08", which corresponds to a confidence level of non-association of 96% from our most liberal estimates of the transformation and measurement uncertainties. In the second, a similarly obtained V-band image, a source is detected ("Source 2") that has overlap with the SN 2006my location but is definitively an extended object. Through artificial star tests carried out on the precise location of SN 2006my in the images, we derive a 3-sigma upper bound on the luminosity of a red supergiant that could have remained undetected in our pre-SN images of log L/L_Sun = 5.10, which translates to an upper bound on such a star's initial mass of 15 M_Sun from the STARS stellar evolutionary models. Although considered unlikely, we can not rule out the possibility that part of the light comprising Source 1, which exhibits a slight extension relative to other point sources in the image, or part of the light contributing to the extended Source 2, may be due to the progenitor of SN 2006my. Only additional, high-resolution observations of the site taken after SN 2006my has faded beyond detection can confirm or reject these possibilities.Comment: Minor text changes from Version 1. Appendix added detailing the determination of confidence level of non-association of point sources in two registered astronomical image