The fallacy of enrolling only high-risk subjects in cancer prevention trials: Is there a "free lunch"?

BACKGROUND: There is a common belief that most cancer prevention trials should be restricted to high-risk subjects in order to increase statistical power. This strategy is appropriate if the ultimate target population is subjects at the same high-risk. However if the target population is the general population, three assumptions may underlie the decision to enroll high-risk subject instead of average-risk subjects from the general population: higher statistical power for the same sample size, lower costs for the same power and type I error, and a correct ratio of benefits to harms. We critically investigate the plausibility of these assumptions. METHODS: We considered each assumption in the context of a simple example. We investigated statistical power for fixed sample size when the investigators assume that relative risk is invariant over risk group, but when, in reality, risk difference is invariant over risk groups. We investigated possible costs when a trial of high-risk subjects has the same power and type I error as a larger trial of average-risk subjects from the general population. We investigated the ratios of benefit to harms when extrapolating from high-risk to average-risk subjects. RESULTS: Appearances here are misleading. First, the increase in statistical power with a trial of high-risk subjects rather than the same number of average-risk subjects from the general population assumes that the relative risk is the same for high-risk and average-risk subjects. However, if the absolute risk difference rather than the relative risk were the same, the power can be less with the high-risk subjects. In the analysis of data from a cancer prevention trial, we found that invariance of absolute risk difference over risk groups was nearly as plausible as invariance of relative risk over risk groups. Therefore a priori assumptions of constant relative risk across risk groups are not robust, limiting extrapolation of estimates of benefit to the general population. Second, a trial of high-risk subjects may cost more than a larger trial of average risk subjects with the same power and type I error because of additional recruitment and diagnostic testing to identify high-risk subjects. Third, the ratio of benefits to harms may be more favorable in high-risk persons than in average-risk persons in the general population, which means that extrapolating this ratio to the general population would be misleading. Thus there is no free lunch when using a trial of high-risk subjects to extrapolate results to the general population. CONCLUSION: Unless the intervention is targeted to only high-risk subjects, cancer prevention trials should be implemented in the general population

Alcohol consumption and lifetime change in cognitive ability:a gene × environment interaction study

Studies of the effect of alcohol consumption on cognitive ability are often confounded. One approach to avoid confounding is the Mendelian randomization design. Here, we used such a design to test the hypothesis that a genetic score for alcohol processing capacity moderates the association between alcohol consumption and lifetime change in cognitive ability. Members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 completed the same test of intelligence at age 11 and 70 years. They were assessed for recent alcohol consumption in later life and genotyped for a set of four single-nucleotide polymorphisms in three alcohol dehydrogenase genes. These variants were unrelated to late-life cognition or to socioeconomic status. We found a significant gene × alcohol consumption interaction on lifetime cognitive change (p = 0.007). Individuals with higher genetic ability to process alcohol showed relative improvements in cognitive ability with more consumption, whereas those with low processing capacity showed a negative relationship between cognitive change and alcohol consumption with more consumption. The effect of alcohol consumption on cognitive change may thus depend on genetic differences in the ability to metabolize alcohol

The utility of ductal lavage in breast cancer detection and risk assessment

Ductal lavage (DL) permits noninvasive retrieval of epithelial cells from the breast. Clinical development of this technique has been fueled largely by its potential, as yet unproven, to improve detection of breast cancer and definition of individual risk for development of breast cancer. Early studies demonstrate the feasibility of performing this technique, provide data on cellular yield and findings, and demonstrate the ability to measure molecular markers in DL fluid. However, the sensitivity and specificity of DL for the detection of breast cancer remains unknown, as does the significance of atypia, particularly mild atypia, when found in DL fluid. Although DL appears safe and the device is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, DL is still best utilized in the setting of clinical trials designed to resolve issues of sensitivity, specificity, and localization

The Cosmological Baryon Density from the Deuterium Abundance at a redshift z = 3.57

We present a measurement of the deuterium to hydrogen ratio in a quasar absorption system at redshift z = 3.57 towards QSO 1937-1009. We use a two component fit, with redshifts determined from unsaturated metal lines, to fit the hydrogen and deuterium features simultaneously. We find a low value of D/H = 2.3 \pm 0.6 \times 10^{-5}, which does not agree with other measurements of high D/H (Songaila et al. 1994, Carswell et al. 1994). The absorption system is very metal poor, with metallicities less than 1/100 solar. Standard models of chemical evolution show the astration of deuterium is limited to a few percent from primordial for systems this metal-poor, so we believe our value represents the primordial one. Using predictions of standard big-bang nucleosynthesis and measurements of the cosmic microwave background, our measurement gives the density of baryons in units of the critical density, $\Omega_b h^2 = 0.024 \pm 0.006$, where H_0 = 100 h km s^{-1] Mpc^{-1}.Comment: 10 pages, 2 Figures, also available at http://nately.ucsd.edu/ ; submitted to Natur

Use of tamoxifen and raloxifene for breast cancer chemoprevention in 2010

PURPOSE: Two selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), tamoxifen and raloxifene, have been shown in randomized clinical trials to reduce the risk of developing primary invasive breast cancer (IBC) in high-risk women. In 1998, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) used these studies as a basis for approving tamoxifen for primary breast chemoprevention in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women at high risk. In 2007, the FDA approved raloxifene for primary breast cancer chemoprevention for postmenopausal women. METHODS: Data from the year 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were analyzed to estimate the prevalence of tamoxifen and raloxifene use for chemoprevention of primary breast cancers among U.S. women. RESULTS: Prevalence of use of chemopreventive agents for primary tumors was 20,598 (95% CI, 518–114,864) for U.S. women aged 35 to 79 for tamoxifen. Prevalence was 96,890 (95% CI, 41,277–192,391) for U.S. women aged 50 to79 for raloxifene. CONCLUSION: Use of tamoxifen and raloxifene for prevention of primary breast cancers continues to be low. In 2010, women reporting medication use for breast cancer chemoprevention were primarily using the more recently FDA-approved drug raloxifene. Multiple possible explanations for the low use exist, including lack of awareness and/or concern about side effects among primary care physicians and patients

Association between depressive symptoms and incident cardiovascular diseases

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, setting and participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant-data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162,036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and UK Biobank (UKB; 401,219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposure: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale (CES-D; range 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). UKB recorded the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2; range 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and CVD (composite of CHD and stroke). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log-CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162,036 participants from the ERFC, 73% were female, mean (SD) age at baseline was 63 (9) years, and 5,078 CHD and 3,932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5-years). Associations with CHD, stroke and CVD were log-linear. HRs (95%CI) per 1SD higher depression score for CHD, stroke and CVD respectively were 1.07 (1.03-1.11), 1.05 (1.01-1.10), and 1.06 (1.04-1.08). This reflects, 36 versus 29 CHD events, 28 versus 25 stroke events, and 63 versus 54 CVD events per 1000 individuals over 10 years in the highest versus lowest quintile of CES-D (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 versus 1). Among 401,219 participants from the UKB, 55% were female, mean baseline age was 56 (8) years, and 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1-years). HRs per 1SD higher depression score for CHD, stroke and CVD respectively were 1.11 (1.08-1.14), 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and 1.10 (1.08-1.13). This reflects, 21 versus 14 CHD events, 15 versus 10 stroke events, and 36 versus 25 CVD events per 1000 individuals over 10 years in those with PHQ2 ≥4 versus 0. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563,255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels below the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge and Sarah Spackman are funded by a British Heart Foundation Programme Grant (RG/18/13/33946). Steven Bell was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (NIHR BTRU-2014-10024). Tom Bolton is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (NIHR BTRU-2014-10024). Angela Wood is supported by a BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science Award and by the EC-Innovative Medicines Initiative (BigData@Heart). John Danesh holds a British Heart Foundation Professorship and a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator Award.* *The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care

Assessment and Implication of Prognostic Imbalance in Randomized Controlled Trials with a Binary Outcome – A Simulation Study

Chance imbalance in baseline prognosis of a randomized controlled trial can lead to over or underestimation of treatment effects, particularly in trials with small sample sizes. Our study aimed to (1) evaluate the probability of imbalance in a binary prognostic factor (PF) between two treatment arms, (2) investigate the impact of prognostic imbalance on the estimation of a treatment effect, and (3) examine the effect of sample size (n) in relation to the first two objectives.We simulated data from parallel-group trials evaluating a binary outcome by varying the risk of the outcome, effect of the treatment, power and prevalence of the PF, and n. Logistic regression models with and without adjustment for the PF were compared in terms of bias, standard error, coverage of confidence interval and statistical power.For a PF with a prevalence of 0.5, the probability of a difference in the frequency of the PF≥5% reaches 0.42 with 125/arm. Ignoring a strong PF (relative risk = 5) leads to underestimating the strength of a moderate treatment effect, and the underestimate is independent of n when n is >50/arm. Adjusting for such PF increases statistical power. If the PF is weak (RR = 2), adjustment makes little difference in statistical inference. Conditional on a 5% imbalance of a powerful PF, adjustment reduces the likelihood of large bias. If an absolute measure of imbalance ≥5% is deemed important, including 1000 patients/arm provides sufficient protection against such an imbalance. Two thousand patients/arm may provide an adequate control against large random deviations in treatment effect estimation in the presence of a powerful PF.The probability of prognostic imbalance in small trials can be substantial. Covariate adjustment improves estimation accuracy and statistical power, and hence should be performed when strong PFs are observed

Molecular genetic contributions to self-rated health

Poorer self-rated health (SRH) predicts worse health outcomes, even when adjusted for objective measures of disease at time of rating. Twin studies indicate SRH has a heritability of up to 60% and that its genetic architecture may overlap with that of personality and cognition.We carried out a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of SRH on 111 749 members of the UK Biobank sample. Univariate genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA)-GREML analyses were used to estimate the proportion of variance explained by all common autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for SRH. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression and polygenic risk scoring, two complementary methods, were used to investigate pleiotropy between SRH in the UK Biobank and up to 21 health-related and personality and cognitive traits from published GWAS consortia.The GWAS identified 13 independent signals associated with SRH, including several in regions previously associated with diseases or disease-related traits. The strongest signal was on chromosome 2 (rs2360675, P = 1.77 x 10 -10 ) close to KLF7 . A second strong peak was identified on chromosome 6 in the major histocompatibility region (rs76380179, P = 6.15 x 10 -10 ). The proportion of variance in SRH that was explained by all common genetic variants was 13%. Polygenic scores for the following traits and disorders were associated with SRH: cognitive ability, education, neuroticism, body mass index (BMI), longevity, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), major depressive disorder, schizophrenia, lung function, blood pressure, coronary artery disease, large vessel disease stroke and type 2 diabetes.Individual differences in how people respond to a single item on SRH are partly explained by their genetic propensity to many common psychiatric and physical disorders and psychological traits

Lipoarabinomannan in urine during tuberculosis treatment: association with host and pathogen factors and mycobacteriuria

BACKGROUND: Detection of lipoarabinomannan (LAM), a Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) cell wall antigen, is a potentially attractive diagnostic. However, the LAM-ELISA assay has demonstrated variable sensitivity in diagnosing TB in diverse clinical populations. We therefore explored pathogen and host factors potentially impacting LAM detection. METHODS: LAM-ELISA assay testing, sputum smear and culture status, HIV status, CD4 cell count, proteinuria and TB outcomes were prospectively determined in adults diagnosed with TB and commencing TB treatment at a South African township TB clinic. Sputum TB isolates were characterised by IS61110-based restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and urines were tested for mycobacteriuria by Xpert® MTB/RIF assay. RESULTS: 32/199 (16.1%) of patients tested LAM-ELISA positive. Median optical density and proportion testing LAM positive remained unchanged during 2 weeks of treatment and then declined over 24 weeks. LAM was associated with positive sputum smear and culture status, HIV infection and low CD4 cell counts but not proteinuria, RFLP strain or TB treatment outcome. The sensitivity of LAM for TB in HIV-infected patients with CD4 counts of ≥ 200, 100-199, 50-99, and < 50 cells/μl, was 15.2%, 32%, 42.9%, and 69.2% respectively. Mycobacteriuria was found in 15/32 (46.9%) of LAM positive patients and in none of the LAM negative controls. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary LAM was related to host immune factors, was unrelated to Mtb strain and declined steadily after an initial 2 weeks of TB treatment. The strong association of urine LAM with mycobacteriuria is a new finding, indicating frequent TB involvement of the renal tract in advanced HIV infection