Confidence Indicators Analysis in the Context of Romanian and European Economy

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to analyze the hypothesis according to which industrial confidence indicator is affected by the reference series from the economic sector represented by the industrial production index and at the same time bears the stamp of other national, European and world macroeconomic indicators. We analyse the correlation and causality between the industrial confidence indicator and macroeconomic indicators. For the identified factors, we elaborate models of multivariate classical and discrete regression that explain the formation of confidence in industry. Pursuant to the results obtained, the industrial confidence indicator of Romania is more strongly influenced by the reference series at EU (27) level, as compared to the series registered at national level

PROGNOSIS OF MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION THROUGH METHODS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS

In this paper we propose the prognosis of the unemployment rate in the European Union through the Box-Jenkins method and the TRAMO/SEATS method as well as the detection of the method which proves to provide the best results. The monthly unemployment rate in the European Union is affected by seasonal variations of deterministic and stochastic nature. The prognosis through the Box-Jenkins nature supposes the separate consideration of seasonal variations, according to their specific nature. The stochastic seasonal variations are modelled and prognosticated simultaneously with the other components of the time series, based on the generating stochastic process. The prognosis of the monthly unemployment rate in the European Union through the TRAMO/SEATS methods is done by aggregating the individual prognoses of the components of the time series, obtained according to the stochastic processes models that generate them.seasonal variations, stochastic process, moving average, prognosis, performance indicators of the prognosis

THE WORLD OIL MARKET – STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

For some countries the oil is the main source of income, while for others it represents the main raw material for energetic needs. Thus, the oil price has major influence on their economies and it is important for them that it stabilizes at a level profitworld oil market, comparative analysis, OPEC, G8

Functional consequence of the MET-T1010I polymorphism in breast cancer.

Major breast cancer predisposition genes, only account for approximately 30% of high-risk breast cancer families and only explain 15% of breast cancer familial relative risk. The HGF growth factor receptor MET is potentially functionally altered due to an uncommon germline single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), MET-T1010I, in many cancer lineages including breast cancer where the MET-T1010I SNP is present in 2% of patients with metastatic breast cancer. Expression of MET-T1010I in the context of mammary epithelium increases colony formation, cell migration and invasion in-vitro and tumor growth and invasion in-vivo. A selective effect of MET-T1010I as compared to wild type MET on cell invasion both in-vitro and in-vivo suggests that the MET-T1010I SNP may alter tumor pathophysiology and should be considered as a potential biomarker when implementing MET targeted clinical trials

THE CONTRIBUTION OF BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDICATORS IN SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

In this paper we study the usefulness of using confidence indicators derived from business surveys in the assessment of the state of economy and in short-term forecasting. For this purpose, we consider the relationship between the industrial confidence indicator and industrial production index in Romania and other European Union member states. We apply graphic methods to analyze the dynamics of variables considered, cointegration and causality tests, as well as the synchronization analysis of cyclical patterns of the confidence indicator and the industrial production index. The cyclic component of data series is extracted with Hodrick-Prescott filter and the identification of turning points is made with Bry – Boschan procedure. The results indicate that the industrial confidence indicator provides important information on the status and evolution of economic activity, although significant differences were found between the countries analyzed. For Romania, the confidence indicator is not Granger-cause for the reference series and the cycles of the two series do not have a strong synchronization, which restrict the use of the confidence indicator in assessing and forecasting the country's economic activity

Identifying the nature of the seasonal component. Application for Romania's quarterly exports between 1990-2006

The purpose of this paper is to study the identification methods of the nature of the seasonal component of a time series. These methods are represented by the verifying tests of the unit root for the models of seasonal autoregressive processes: the HEGY test, the Franses test, etc. In practice, it has been demonstrated that the seasonal component is both deterministic and stochastic. The HEGY test allows identifying the nature of seasonal variations, but it is difficult to establish a limit between the two parts. The correct arbitration of the test' results of seasonal autoregressive processes, with and without a deterministic component, makes it possible to choose the appropriate methods of seasonal variations elimination. This aspect is highlighted by analysing the time series defined by Romania's quarterly exports between 1990 - 2006.seasonal variations, deterministic seasonality, stochastic seasonality, unit root test, HEGY test.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALITY IN ROMANIA

This paper analyses one of the components of a time series, that is the seasonal component. The phenomenon studied in the paper is the unemployment in Romania during 1996-2005. The unemployment seasonality is measured by three indicators: low-peak seasonality, amplitude seasonality and mean seasonal variation. The seasonal factor is used, together with the extrapolation of the trend, to predict the unemployment level in Romania for the first quarter of 2009

The Role Of Individual Values In Personal Development

This paper starts from the premise that there is a strong relationship between individual values and human development. In other words, the values we embrace act as facilitating factors or, on the contrary, as barrier for our personal development. Data from World Values Survey database and from Sustainable Society Foundation are used, the purpose being to determine the extent to which the exist-ing values influence people personal development. The findings confirm the existence of a relationship between several values namely, tolerance and respect for other people, hard work, thrift saving money and things and religious faith and personal development. The analysis also deals with aspects related to Romania’s position compared to other EU countries in terms of personal development and individ-ual values.individual values, personal development, correlation, multiple regression, principal components analysis

Extraction of seasonal variations of unemployment rate in Romania using several methods based on moving average filter

At present, both at European Union and world level, experts are preoccupied to find the best method for the deseasonalisation of a time series that should assure the comparability of statistical data. The present paper follows the line of these researches. In the study, we undertake a comparison of the most representative methods based on moving average filter: moving average method, Census X-11 method and X-12 ARIMA method. Theoretical research shows the superiority of X-12 ARIMA method, which has incorporated the previous methods as regards the algorithm and the advantages, contributing to the improvement of the weaknesses of the former methods. The criteria for the comparison of the results obtained through the three methods applied to the time series of unemployment rate in Romania during the period 2000 - 2007 didn’t indicate a unique method, as being the most adequate for deseasonalisation.seasonal variations, moving average filter, ARIMA models for stochastic processes