From Ashcroft to Larios: Recent Redistricting Lessons From Georgia

In this Article, we explore the impact of a court-ordered and implemented re-crafting of state legislative districts in the state of Georgia. First, we explore the notion of “fairness” in legislative redistricting and identify the factors associated with a “fair” map. We then describe the partisan nature of the 2001 Georgia state legislative redistricting and the political consequences of this most effective gerrymander. We also describe the two legal challenges to the Georgia maps—Georgia v. Ashcroft and Larios v. Cox—and discuss the path of both cases to the U.S. Supreme Court. We then explore the expected and observed consequences of the Court-ordered and implemented redistricting that undid the unconstitutional Georgia gerrymander, and draw conclusions regarding the prospect for how court remedies can affect partisan bias in redistricting plans

Religious Nationalism and Perceptions of Muslims and Islam

Abstract: We test for relationships between anti-Muslim attitudes and opinion and competing religious identity and religious belief variables in an evangelical Christian constituency. Original survey data from a statewide sample of 508 likely voters in Oklahoma are subjected to a robust regression analysis to determine (1) indicators of holding Christian nationalist beliefs and (2) the relationship between belief measures of Christian nationalism, evangelical Christian identity, and subsequent anti-Muslim sentiment. Christian nationalism is more prevalent among self-identified evangelicals. Christian nationalist beliefs and strong belief in Biblical literalism are significantly related to negative and restrictive views of Muslims. Anti-Muslim sentiments in the form of general disapproval and the desire to limit Muslim worship are shaped more by beliefs than identities or behaviors. Evangelical self-identification does not help us disentangle domestic opinion regarding Muslims as well as measures that disentangle beliefs from identity

Economic Interest Group Allocations in Open-Seat Senate Elections

Most studies of political action committees (PACs) focus on the incumbent-oriented contribution strategies of PACs, whereas contributions to open-seat candidates remain relatively unexplored. Based on the assumption that open-seat candidates have an insatiable need for campaign money, we model the allocations of PACs to open-seat senate candidates from 1980 to 1994. The results of our analyses indicate that allocations in open-seat senate elections are more partisan than those in incumbent elections, although incumbent-like effects are evident in allocations by corporate, labor, and trade association PACs, which largely support aspirant House of Representatives members who have previously existing connections to monied interests. Unlike the bipartisan behavior exhibited by investor PACs in open house races, labor and investor interests reinforce the partisan divisions in senate contests by engaging in competitive funding of opposing candidates.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Structural and Elite Features in Open Seat and Special U.S. House Elections: Is There a Sexual Bias?

Conventional wisdom long held that there was a bias against women in elections. Subsequent research indicates that men and women who challenge for elective office confront a common barrier: incumbency. In this article we extend our previous research on women in open seat elec tions by examining the performance of women who compete in special elections. Female candidate emergence in special House contests is slightly higher than in regular open seats. Using multivariate regression models, our analysis uncovered no bias against women in special elections. Over all, the performance of women in special elections and open seats indi cates that disruptions of the political status quo by the sudden vacancy creates opportunities that women exploit with effectiveness, although the low level of female candidate emergence limits the growth of descriptive female representation.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

The Consolidation of the White Southern Congressional Vote

This article explores the initial desertion and continued realignment of about one-sixth of the white voters in the South who, until 1994, stood by Democratic congressional candidates even as they voted for Republican presidential nominees. Prior to 1994, a sizable share of the white electorate distinguished between Democratic congressional and presidential candidates; since 1994 that distinction has been swept away. In 1992, a majority of white southern voters was casting their ballot for the Democratic House nominee; by 1994, the situation was reversed and 64 percent cast their ballot for the Republican. Virtually all categories of voters increased their support of Republican congressional candidates in 1994 and the following elections further cement GOP congressional support in the South. Subsequent elections are largely exercises in partisanship, as the congressional votes mirror party preferences. Republicans pull nearly all GOP identifiers, most independents, and a sizeable minority of Democratic identifiers. Democrats running for Congress no longer convince voters that they are different from their party’s presidential standard bearers—a group that has consistently been judged unacceptable to overwhelming proportions of the southern white electorate.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Congressional Seat Swings: Revisiting Exposure in House Elections

Oppenheimer, Stimson, and Waterman's exposure thesis of partisan change contends that shifts in the partisan composition of Congress are related to the long-term stability of the electoral system. Applying their exposure model to elections from 1962-1994 produces seat change estimates that generally follow the actual data pattern, but these estimates produce large predictive errors. When the exposure model is reestimated using data from 1962-1994, exposure is not significantly related to partisan seat swings. This article advances a seat change model that relies on an alter nate measure of exposure: the net exposure of the president's party in open seats. Open-seat exposure is significantly related to the partisan seat swing, and substantially improves on the economic evaluation/surge and-decline/ exposure model of seat change. In an era of high incumbent security and strategic retirement from Congress, the balance of open seats is a better indicator of partisan vulnerability, and better reflects the nature of partisan exposure.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Regional Variations in the Realignment of American Politics, 1944-2004

Perennial questions in electoral studies are what constitutes realignment, and when and where do realignments occur? Using the concepts of critical and secular realignments as a framework, we model change in the end product of realignment, election outcomes. We test for secular and critical changes in partisan strength across six geographic regions of the United States, focusing on office-holding data at both the federal and state legislative level. Copyright (c) 2006 Southwestern Social Science Association.