How big is too big? Critical Shocks for Systemic Failure Cascades

External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical constellations determine whether this cascade remains finite or reaches the size of the system, i.e. leads to systemic risk. We investigate the critical parameters for such cascades in a simple model, where agents are characterized by an individual threshold \theta_i determining their capacity to handle a load \alpha\theta_i with 1-\alpha being their safety margin. If agents fail, they redistribute their load equally to K neighboring agents in a regular network. For three different threshold distributions P(\theta), we derive analytical results for the size of the cascade, X(t), which is regarded as a measure of systemic risk, and the time when it stops. We focus on two different regimes, (i) EEE, an external extreme event where the size of the shock is of the order of the total capacity of the network, and (ii) RIE, a random internal event where the size of the shock is of the order of the capacity of an agent. We find that even for large extreme events that exceed the capacity of the network finite cascades are still possible, if a power-law threshold distribution is assumed. On the other hand, even small random fluctuations may lead to full cascades if critical conditions are met. Most importantly, we demonstrate that the size of the "big" shock is not the problem, as the systemic risk only varies slightly for changes of 10 to 50 percent of the external shock. Systemic risk depends much more on ingredients such as the network topology, the safety margin and the threshold distribution, which gives hints on how to reduce systemic risk.Comment: 23 pages, 7 Figure

Agaricus Blazei In The Diet Of Broiler Chickens On Immunity, Serum Parameters And Antioxidant Activity

The effect of adding Agaricus blazei to the diet of broilers on immunity, serum parameters, and antioxidant activity was evaluated. A total of 840 1-day-old chicks were used, distributed among five levels of a completely randomized design (0.0, 0.05, 0.10, 0.15, and 0.20% A. blazei), with six replications and 28 birds per experimental unit. The weights of the thymus, spleen and cloacal bursa were not influenced (P > 0.05). Leukocytes, macrophages and nitric oxide were unaffected (P > 0.05), but at each supplementation level compared with the control, differences appeared in the percentages of eosinophils and macrophages (P 0.05) at 42 days. Hypocholesterolemic effect was demonstrated (P 0.05). The antioxidant activity of mushroom showed a positive linear effect (P < 0.05) on DPPH capture on day zero of meat cooling. The inclusion of A. blazei in the diet of broilers provided an immunostimulatory activity and hypocholesterolemic effect. Residual compounds with antioxidant activity were present in the meat, which may promote tissue protection of the animal in vivo, making possible the use of A. blazei as a natural additive.3742235224

Potential Scattering in Dirac Field Theory

We develop the potential scattering of a spinor within the context of perturbation field theory. As an application, we reproduce, up to second order in the potential, the diffusion results for a potential barrier of quantum mechanics. An immediate consequence is a simple generalization to arbitrary potential forms, a feature not possible in quantum mechanics.Comment: 7 page

Mapping the Effect of Interictal Epileptic Activity Density During Wakefulness on Brain Functioning in Focal Childhood Epilepsies With Centrotemporal Spikes

Childhood epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes (CECTS) is the most common type of \u201cself-limited focal epilepsies.\u201d In its typical presentation, CECTS is a condition reflecting non-lesional cortical hyperexcitability of rolandic regions. The benign evolution of this disorder is challenged by the frequent observation of associated neuropsychological deficits and behavioral impairment. The abundance (or frequency) of interictal centrotemporal spikes (CTS) in CECTS is considered a risk factor for deficits in cognition. Herein, we captured the hemodynamic changes triggered by the CTS density measure (i.e., the number of CTS for time bin) obtained in a cohort of CECTS, studied by means of video electroencephalophy/functional MRI during quite wakefulness. We aim to demonstrate a direct influence of the diurnal CTS frequency on epileptogenic and cognitive networks of children with CECTS. A total number of 8,950 CTS (range between 27 and 801) were recorded in 23 CECTS (21 male), with a mean number of 255 CTS/patient and a mean density of CTS/30 s equal to 10,866 \ub1 11.46. Two independent general linear model models were created for each patient based on the effect of interest: \u201cindividual CTS\u201d in model 1 and \u201cCTS density\u201d in model 2. Hemodynamic correlates of CTS density revealed the involvement of a widespread cortical\u2013subcortical network encompassing the sensory-motor cortex, the Broca's area, the premotor cortex, the thalamus, the putamen, and red nucleus, while in the CTS event-related model, changes were limited to blood\u2013oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal increases in the sensory-motor cortices. A linear relationship was observed between the CTS density hemodynamic changes and both disease duration (positive correlation) and age (negative correlation) within the language network and the bilateral insular cortices. Our results strongly support the critical role of the CTS frequency, even during wakefulness, to interfere with the normal functioning of language brain networks

Qualitative Analysis of the Factors Associated with Whistleblowing Intentions among Athletes from Six European Countries

Although whistleblowing is thought to represent an effective mechanism for detecting and uncovering doping in sport, it has yet to become a widely adopted practice. Understanding the factors that encourage or discourage whistleblowing is of vital importance for the promotion of this practice and the development of pedagogical material to enhance the likelihood of whistleblowing. The current study employed a qualitative methodology to explore the personal and organisational factors that underpin intentions to blow the whistle or that may lead to engagement in whistleblowing behaviours in sport. Thirty-three competitive athletes across a range of sports took part in a semi-structured interview which sought to explore what they would do should they encounter a doping scenario. Content analysis revealed that whistleblowing is a dynamic process characterised by the interaction of a range of personal and organisational factors in determining the intention to report PED use. These factors included moral reasoning, a desire to keep the matter "in-house", perceived personal costs, institutional attitudes to doping, and social support. Analysis revealed a number of 'intervening events' (Ajzen, 1991), including a perceived lack of organisational protection (e.g., ethical leadership) within some sporting sub-cultures, which present an important obstacle to whistleblowing. The intention to report doping was underpinned by a "fairness loyalty trade-off" which involved athletes choosing to adhere to either fairness norms (which relate to a sense that all people and groups are treated equally) or loyalty norms (which reflect preferential treatment towards an in-group) when deciding whether they would blow the whistle. The promotion of fairness norms that emphasise a group's collective interests might encourage athletes to view whistleblowing as a means of increasing group cohesiveness and effectiveness and thereby increase the likelihood of this practice

School dropout, problem behaviour and poor academic achievement : a longitudinal view of portuguese male offenders

This study examines school drop outs from the perspective of male adults themselves through interviews with offenders currently serving sentences. Participants were 10 Portuguese male inmates, between the ages of 19 and 46 years of age, incarcerated in two prison facilities of the Azores. Qualitative and interpretative methods were carried out using a semi-structured in-depth individual interview that was audiorecorded and conducted on the basis of a list of topics. Interview transcripts and thematic analysis were used in data treatment and analysis. The findings primarily indicate that poor academic achievement and emotional and behavioural difficulties of participants played a particular role in early school drop out. The trajectories these individuals followed within the education system presented problem behaviour, learning disabilities, and/or foster care interventions. While school drop out circumstances were apparently various, analysis showed that they were underpinned by three distinct sets of conditions generally not addressed by the education system. The analysis of the triggering factors and the maintenance dynamics of school drop outs indicated three distinct types: retention/absenteeism, life turning points and positive resolution. Implications for secondary prevention and screening practices are discussed.FCT (SFRH/ BD/ 44245/ 2008)CIEC - unidade de investigação 317 da FC

Determinants of cognitive performance and decline in 20 diverse ethno-regional groups: A COSMIC collaboration cohort study

Background: With no effective treatments for cognitive decline or dementia, improving the evidence base for modifiable risk factors is a research priority. This study investigated associations between risk factors and late-life cognitive decline on a global scale, including comparisons between ethno-regional groups. Methods and findings: We harmonized longitudinal data from 20 population-based cohorts from 15 countries over 5 continents, including 48,522 individuals (58.4% women) aged 54–105 (mean = 72.7) years and without dementia at baseline. Studies had 2–15 years of follow-up. The risk factors investigated were age, sex, education, alcohol consumption, anxiety, apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (APOE*4) status, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure and pulse pressure, body mass index, cardiovascular disease, depression, diabetes, self-rated health, high cholesterol, hypertension, peripheral vascular disease, physical activity, smoking, and history of stroke. Associations with risk factors were determined for a global cognitive composite outcome (memory, language, processing speed, and executive functioning tests) and Mini-Mental State Examination score. Individual participant data meta-analyses of multivariable linear mixed model results pooled across cohorts revealed that for at least 1 cognitive outcome, age (B = −0.1, SE = 0.01), APOE*4 carriage (B = −0.31, SE = 0.11), depression (B = −0.11, SE = 0.06), diabetes (B = −0.23, SE = 0.10), current smoking (B = −0.20, SE = 0.08), and history of stroke (B = −0.22, SE = 0.09) were independently associated with poorer cognitive performance (p < 0.05 for all), and higher levels of education (B = 0.12, SE = 0.02) and vigorous physical activity (B = 0.17, SE = 0.06) were associated with better performance (p < 0.01 for both). Age (B = −0.07, SE = 0.01), APOE*4 carriage (B = −0.41, SE = 0.18), and diabetes (B = −0.18, SE = 0.10) were independently associated with faster cognitive decline (p < 0.05 for all). Different effects between Asian people and white people included stronger associations for Asian people between ever smoking and poorer cognition (group by risk factor interaction: B = −0.24, SE = 0.12), and between diabetes and cognitive decline (B = −0.66, SE = 0.27; p < 0.05 for both). Limitations of our study include a loss or distortion of risk factor data with harmonization, and not investigating factors at midlife. Conclusions: These results suggest that education, smoking, physical activity, diabetes, and stroke are all modifiable factors associated with cognitive decline. If these factors are determined to be causal, controlling them could minimize worldwide levels of cognitive decline. However, any global prevention strategy may need to consider ethno-regional differences

Measuring the metric: a parametrized post-Friedmanian approach to the cosmic dark energy problem

We argue for a ``parametrized post-Friedmanian'' approach to linear cosmology, where the history of expansion and perturbation growth is measured without assuming that the Einstein Field Equations hold. As an illustration, a model-independent analysis of 92 type Ia supernovae demonstrates that the curve giving the expansion history has the wrong shape to be explained without some form of dark energy or modified gravity. We discuss how upcoming lensing, galaxy clustering, cosmic microwave background and Lyman alpha forest observations can be combined to pursue this program, which generalizes the quest for a dark energy equation of state, and forecast the accuracy that the proposed SNAP satellite can attain.Comment: Replaced to match accepted PRD version. References and another example added, section III omitted since superceded by astro-ph/0207047. 11 PRD pages, 7 figs. Color figs and links at http://www.hep.upenn.edu/~max/gravity.html or from [email protected]

Ethnoracial Disparities in SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a Large Cohort of Individuals in Central North Carolina from April to December 2020

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused millions of deaths around the world within the past 2 years. Transmission within the United States has been heterogeneously distributed by geography and social factors with little data from North Carolina. Here, we describe results from a weekly cross-sectional study of 12,471 unique hospital remnant samples from 19 April to 26 December 2020 collected by four clinical sites within the University of North Carolina Health system, with a majority of samples from urban, outpatient populations in central North Carolina. We employed a Bayesian inference model to calculate SARS-CoV-2 spike protein immunoglobulin prevalence estimates and conditional odds ratios for seropositivity. Furthermore, we analyzed a subset of these seropositive samples for neutralizing antibodies. We observed an increase in seroprevalence from 2.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 4.5) to 12.8 (95% CI, 10.6 to 15.2) over the course of the study. Latinx individuals had the highest odds ratio of SARS-CoV-2 exposure at 6.56 (95% CI, 4.66 to 9.44). Our findings aid in quantifying the degree of asymmetric SARS-CoV-2 exposure by ethnoracial grouping. We also find that 49% of a subset of seropositive individuals had detectable neutralizing antibodies, which was skewed toward those with recent respiratory infection symptoms