Scientific Statistics, Teaching, Learning and the Computer

It is argued that the domination of Statistics by Mathematics rather than by Science has greatly reduced the value and the status of the subject. The mathematical "theorem - proof paradigm" has supplanted the "iterative learning paradigm" of scientific method. This misunderstanding has affected university teaching, research, the granting of tenure to faculty and the distributions of grants by funding agencies. Possible ways in which some of these problems might be overcome and the role that computers can play in this reformation are discussed

The analysis of relapse-free survival curves: implications for evaluating intensive systemic adjuvant treatment regimens for breast cancer

Results of adjuvant dose intensification studies in patients with localised breast cancer have raised questions regarding the clinical usefulness of this treatment strategy. Here, we develop and fit a natural history model for the time to clinical tumour recurrence as a function of the number of involved lymph nodes, and derive plausible predictions of the effects of dose intensification under various conditions. The time to tumour recurrence is assumed to depend on the residual postoperative micrometastatic burden of tumour, the fractional reduction of residual tumour burden (RTB) by treatment, and the rate of regrowth of the RTB to a clinically detectable size. It is assumed that a proportion of micrometastatic tumours are unresponsive to adjuvant chemotherapy even at maximal dose intensity. Data fitted included the San Antonio Cancer Institute (SACI) database of untreated patients, and CALGB #9082, a study comparing a highly intensive and moderately intensity adjuvant regimen in patients with 10+ positive axillary nodes. The proportion of tumours unresponsive to maximally intensive adjuvant treatment is estimated to be 48% (29–67%). The estimated log kill for intermediate-dose therapy from CALGB #9082 was 6.5 logs, compared with 9 logs or greater for high-dose therapy. The model is consistent with a modest but nonnegligible advantage of dose intensification compared with standard therapies in patients with sensitive tumours who have 10+ positive axillary nodes, and suggests that much of this clinical benefit could be achieved using intermediate levels of treatment intensification. The model further suggests that, in patients with fewer than 10 involved axillary nodes, any advantage of treatment intensification over standard therapy would be much reduced, because in patients with smaller tumour burdens of sensitive tumour, a larger proportion of cures achievable with intensified therapy could be achieved as well with standard therapy

Radiation chemistry of solid-state carbohydrates using EMR

We review our research of the past decade towards identification of radiation-induced radicals in solid state sugars and sugar phosphates. Detailed models of the radical structures are obtained by combining EPR and ENDOR experiments with DFT calculations of g and proton HF tensors, with agreement in their anisotropy serving as most important criterion. Symmetry-related and Schonland ambiguities, which may hamper such identification, are reviewed. Thermally induced transformations of initial radiation damage into more stable radicals can also be monitored in the EPR (and ENDOR) experiments and in principle provide information on stable radical formation mechanisms. Thermal annealing experi-ments reveal, however, that radical recombination and/or diamagnetic radiation damage is also quite important. Analysis strategies are illustrated with research on sucrose. Results on dipotassium glucose-1-phosphate and trehalose dihydrate, fructose and sorbose are also briefly discussed. Our study demonstrates that radiation damage is strongly regio-selective and that certain general principles govern the stable radical formation

A New Calibrated Bayesian Internal Goodness-of-Fit Method: Sampled Posterior p-Values as Simple and General p-Values That Allow Double Use of the Data

Background: Recent approaches mixing frequentist principles with Bayesian inference propose internal goodness-of-fit (GOF) p-values that might be valuable for critical analysis of Bayesian statistical models. However, GOF p-values developed to date only have known probability distributions under restrictive conditions. As a result, no known GOF p-value has a known probability distribution for any discrepancy function. Methodology/Principal Findings: We show mathematically that a new GOF p-value, called the sampled posterior p-value (SPP), asymptotically has a uniform probability distribution whatever the discrepancy function. In a moderate finite sample context, simulations also showed that the SPP appears stable to relatively uninformative misspecifications of the prior distribution. Conclusions/Significance: These reasons, together with its numerical simplicity, make the SPP a better canonical GOF p-value than existing GOF p-values

Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss: recent developments in observation and modeling

Surface processes currently dominate Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) mass loss. We review recent developments in the observation and modelling of GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), published after the July 2012 deadline for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). Since IPCC AR5 our understanding of GrIS SMB has further improved, but new observational and model studies have also revealed that temporal and spatial variability of many processes are still poorly quantified and understood, e.g. bio-albedo, the formation of ice lenses and their impact on lateral meltwater transport, heterogeneous vertical meltwater transport (‘piping’), the impact of atmospheric circulation changes and mixed-phase clouds on the surface energy balance and the magnitude of turbulent heat exchange over rough ice surfaces. As a result, these processes are only schematically or not at all included in models that are currently used to assess and predict future GrIS surface mass loss

Stressed but Stable: Canopy Loss Decreased Species Synchrony and Metabolic Variability in an Intertidal Hard-Bottom Community

The temporal stability of aggregate community properties depends on the dynamics of the component species. Since species growth can compensate for the decline of other species, synchronous species dynamics can maintain stability (i.e. invariability) in aggregate properties such as community abundance and metabolism. In field experiments we tested the separate and interactive effects of two stressors associated with storminess–loss of a canopy-forming species and mechanical disturbances–on species synchrony and community respiration of intertidal hard-bottom communities on Helgoland Island, NE Atlantic. Treatments consisted of regular removal of the canopy-forming seaweed Fucus serratus and a mechanical disturbance applied once at the onset of the experiment in March 2006. The level of synchrony in species abundances was assessed from estimates of species percentage cover every three months until September 2007. Experiments at two sites consistently showed that canopy loss significantly reduced species synchrony. Mechanical disturbance had neither separate nor interactive effects on species synchrony. Accordingly, in situ measurements of CO2-fluxes showed that canopy loss, but not mechanical disturbances, significantly reduced net primary productivity and temporal variation in community respiration during emersion periods. Our results support the idea that compensatory dynamics may stabilise aggregate properties. They further suggest that the ecological consequences of the loss of a single structurally important species may be stronger than those derived from smaller-scale mechanical disturbances in natural ecosystems