Predict, diagnose, and treat chronic kidney disease with machine learning: a systematic literature review

Objectives In this systematic review we aimed at assessing how artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning (ML) techniques have been deployed to predict, diagnose, and treat chronic kidney disease (CKD). We systematically reviewed the available evidence on these innovative techniques to improve CKD diagnosis and patient management.Methods We included English language studies retrieved from PubMed. The review is therefore to be classified as a "rapid review ", since it includes one database only, and has language restrictions; the novelty and importance of the issue make missing relevant papers unlikely. We extracted 16 variables, including: main aim, studied population, data source, sample size, problem type (regression, classification), predictors used, and performance metrics. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA) approach; all main steps were done in duplicate. The review was registered on PROSPERO.ResultsFrom a total of 648 studies initially retrieved, 68 articles met the inclusion criteria.Models, as reported by authors, performed well, but the reported metrics were not homogeneous across articles and therefore direct comparison was not feasible. The most common aim was prediction of prognosis, followed by diagnosis of CKD. Algorithm generalizability, and testing on diverse populations was rarely taken into account. Furthermore, the clinical evaluation and validation of the models/algorithms was perused; only a fraction of the included studies, 6 out of 68, were performed in a clinical context.Conclusions Machine learning is a promising tool for the prediction of risk, diagnosis, and therapy management for CKD patients. Nonetheless, future work is needed to address the interpretability, generalizability, and fairness of the models to ensure the safe application of such technologies in routine clinical practice

Association between Economic Growth, Mortality, and Healthcare Spending in 31 High-Income Countries

: This study aims to investigate the association between gross domestic product (GDP), mortality rate (MR) and current healthcare expenditure (CHE) in 31 high-income countries. We used panel data from 2000 to 2017 collected from WHO and OECD databases. The association between CHE, GDP and MR was investigated through a random-effects model. To control for reverse causality, we adopted a test of Granger causality. The model shows that the MR has a statistically significant and negative effect on CHE and that an increase in GDP is associated with an increase of CHE (p < 0.001). The Granger causality analysis shows that all the variables exhibit a bidirectional causality. We found a two-way relationship between GDP and CHE. Our analysis highlights the economic multiplier effect of CHE. In the debate on the optimal allocation of resources, this evidence should be taken into due consideration

Distributed Solutions for a Reliable Data-Driven Transformation of Healthcare Management and Research

Modern healthcare management and clinical practice strongly rely on data and scientific evidence. Digital technologies, tools, and services are core components of Healthcare Management and scientific Research (HMR). Data interoperability, security, privacy, and ease of sharing represent fundamental conditions for guaranteeing quality HMR. Current data management solutions in HMR are mainly built on two technological infrastructures: cloud-based (CB) or distributed ledger systems (DLTs). DLTs offer alternative and reliable alternatives for the management and sharing of data in HMR. Their use can help increase confidence and trust in the integrity of data and the resulting evidence. The aim of this paper is to shed light on CB and DLT solutions, emphasizing the potential role of innovative digital solutions based on DLTs in creating a data-driven transformation of HMR, and to describe relevant examples and practical uses of DLT-based solutions for patients, healthcare management, and research activities. DLTs in particular can be increasingly useful for patients to truly have control over their health, for healthcare policymakers to increase the quality of organizational processes, and for research funders, editors and publishers to increase the return on investment, and the reuse and reproducibility of research. In conclusion, harnessing the potential of digital technologies is essential to transform healthcare management and research, by enhancing data quality, reliability, and trust

COVID-19 and regional differences in the timeliness of hip-fracture surgery: an interrupted time-series analysis

Background. It is of great importance to examine the impact of the healthcare reorganization adopted to confront the COVID-19 pandemic on the quality of care provided to non-COVID-19 patients. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 national lockdown (March 9, 2020) on the quality of care provided to patients with hip fracture (HF) in Piedmont and Emilia-Romagna, two large regions of northern Italy severely hit by the pandemic.Methods. We calculated the percentage of HF patients undergoing surgery within 2 days of hospital admission. An interrupted time-series analysis was performed on weekly data from December 11, 2019 to June 9, 2020 (approximate to 6 months), interrupting the series in the 2nd week of March. The same data observed the year before were included as a control time series with no "intervention"(lockdown) in the middle of the observation period.Results. Before the lockdown, 2-day surgery was 69.9% in Piedmont and 79.2% in Emilia-Romagna; after the lockdown, these proportions were equal to 69.8% (-0.1%) and 69.3% (-9.9%), respectively. While Piedmont did not experience any drop in the amount of surgery, Emilia-Romagna exhibited a significant decline at a weekly rate of -1.29% (95% CI [-1.71 to -0.88]). Divergent trend patterns in the two study regions reflect local differences in pandemic timing as well as in healthcare services capacity, management, and emergency preparedness

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on cause-specific mortality patterns: a systematic literature review

Background Understanding the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on cause-specific mortality should be a priority, as this metric allows for a detailed analysis of the true burden of the pandemic. The aim of this systematic literature review is to estimate the impact of the pandemic on different causes of death, providing a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the phenomenon. Methods We searched MEDLINE, Scopus, and ProQuest for studies that reported cause-specific mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, extracting relevant data. Results A total of 2413 articles were retrieved, and after screening 22 were selected for data extraction. Cause-specific mortality results were reported using different units of measurement. The most frequently analyzed cause of death was cardiovascular diseases (n = 16), followed by cancer (n = 14) and diabetes (n = 11). We reported heterogeneous patterns of cause-specific mortality, except for suicide and road accident. Conclusions Evidence on non-COVID-19 cause-specific deaths is not exhaustive. Reliable scientific evidence is needed by policymakers to make the best decisions in an unprecedented and extremely uncertain historical period. We advocate for the urgent need to find an international consensus to define reliable methodological approaches to establish the true burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID-19 mortality

Adoption of Digital Technologies in Health Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Systematic Review of Early Scientific Literature

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is favoring digital transitions in many industries and in society as a whole. Health care organizations have responded to the first phase of the pandemic by rapidly adopting digital solutions and advanced technology tools. Objective: The aim of this review is to describe the digital solutions that have been reported in the early scientific literature to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on individuals and health systems. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of early COVID-19-related literature (from January 1 to April 30, 2020) by searching MEDLINE and medRxiv with appropriate terms to find relevant literature on the use of digital technologies in response to the pandemic. We extracted study characteristics such as the paper title, journal, and publication date, and we categorized the retrieved papers by the type of technology and patient needs addressed. We built a scoring rubric by cross-classifying the patient needs with the type of technology. We also extracted information and classified each technology reported by the selected articles according to health care system target, grade of innovation, and scalability to other geographical areas. Results: The search identified 269 articles, of which 124 full-text articles were assessed and included in the review after screening. Most of the selected articles addressed the use of digital technologies for diagnosis, surveillance, and prevention. We report that most of these digital solutions and innovative technologies have been proposed for the diagnosis of COVID-19. In particular, within the reviewed articles, we identified numerous suggestions on the use of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered tools for the diagnosis and screening of COVID-19. Digital technologies are also useful for prevention and surveillance measures, such as contact-tracing apps and monitoring of internet searches and social media usage. Fewer scientific contributions address the use of digital technologies for lifestyle empowerment or patient engagement. Conclusions: In the field of diagnosis, digital solutions that integrate with traditional methods, such as AI-based diagnostic algorithms based both on imaging and clinical data, appear to be promising. For surveillance, digital apps have already proven their effectiveness; however, problems related to privacy and usability remain. For other patient needs, several solutions have been proposed, such as telemedicine or telehealth tools. These tools have long been available, but this historical moment may actually be favoring their definitive large-scale adoption. It is worth taking advantage of the impetus provided by the crisis; it is also important to keep track of the digital solutions currently being proposed to implement best practices and models of care in future and to adopt at least some of the solutions proposed in the scientific literature, especially in national health systems, which have proved to be particularly resistant to the digital transition in recent years

Semi-Automatic Systematic Literature Reviews and Information Extraction of COVID-19 Scientific Evidence: Description and Preliminary Results of the COKE Project

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of validated and updated scientific information to help policy makers, healthcare professionals, and the public. The speed in disseminating reliable information and the subsequent guidelines and policy implementation are also essential to save as many lives as possible. Trustworthy guidelines should be based on a systematic evidence review which uses reproducible analytical methods to collect secondary data and analyse them. However, the guidelines’ drafting process is time consuming and requires a great deal of resources. This paper aims to highlight the importance of accelerating and streamlining the extraction and synthesis of scientific evidence, specifically within the systematic review process. To do so, this paper describes the COKE (COVID-19 Knowledge Extraction framework for next generation discovery science) Project, which involves the use of machine reading and deep learning to design and implement a semi-automated system that supports and enhances the systematic literature review and guideline drafting processes. Specifically, we propose a framework for aiding in the literature selection and navigation process that employs natural language processing and clustering techniques for selecting and organizing the literature for human consultation, according to PICO (Population/Problem, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome) elements. We show some preliminary results of the automatic classification of sentences on a dataset of abstracts related to COVID-19

Small-scale spatial distribution of COVID-19-related excess mortality

Mortality due to massive events like the COVID-19 pandemic is underestimated because of several reasons, among which the impossibility to track all positive cases and the inadequacy of coding systems are presumably the most relevant. Therefore, the most affordable method to estimate COVID-19-related mortality is excess mortality (EM). Very often, though, EM is calculated on large spatial units that may entail different EM patterns and without stratifying deaths by age or sex, while, especially in the case of epidemics, it is important to identify the areas that suffered a higher death toll or that were spared. We developed the Stata COVID19_EM.ado procedure that estimates EM within municipalities in six subgroups defined by sex and age class using official data provided by ISTAT (Italian National Statistics Bureau) on deaths occurred from 2015 to 2020. Using simple linear regression models, we estimated the mortality trend in each age-and-sex subgroup and obtained the expected deaths of 2020 by extrapolating the linear trend. The results are then displayed using choropleth maps. Subsequently, local autocorrelation maps, which allow to appreciate the presence of local clusters of high or low EM, may be obtained using an R procedure that we developed.We focused on estimating excess mortality in small-scale spatial units (municipalities) and in population strata defined by age and sex.This method gives a deeper insight on excess mortality than summary figures at regional or national level, enabling to identify the local areas that suffered the most and the high-risk population subgroups within them.This type of analysis could be replicated on different time frames, which might correspond to successive epidemic waves, as well as to periods in which containment measures were enforced and for different age classes; moreover, it could be applied in every instance of mortality crisis within a region or a country. (C) 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V

Regional and sex inequalities of avoidable mortality in Italy: A time trend analysis

Objectives: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of avoidable mortality (AM), treatable mortality (TM), and preventable mortality (PM) across Italy, focusing on region- and gender-specific inequalities over a 14-year period. Study design: Time-trend analysis (2006–2019). Methods: The study was conducted using mortality data from the Italian Institute of Statistics to evaluate the extent and patterns of AM, TM, and PM in Italy. Biennial age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by gender and region using the joint OECD/Eurostat list. Results: The overall AM rates showed a large reduction from 2006/7 (221.0 per 100,000) to 2018/9 (166.4 per 100,000). Notably, females consistently displayed lower AM rates than males. Furthermore, both gender differences and the North–South gap of AM decreased during the period studied. The regions with the highest AM rates fluctuated throughout the study period. The highest percentage decrease in AM from 2006/7 to 2018/9, for both males (−41.3 %) and females (−34.2 %), was registered in the autonomous province of Trento, while the lowest reduction was observed in Molise for males (−17.4 %) and in Marche for females (−10.0 %). Conclusions: Remarkable gender and regional differences in AM between 2006 and 2019 have been recorded in Italy, although they have decreased over years. Continuous monitoring of AM and the implementation of region- and gender-specific interventions is essential to provide valuable insights for both policy and public health practice. This study contributes to the efforts to improve health equity between Italian regions