Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Annual and seasonal movements of migrating short-tailed shearwaters reflect environmental variation in sub-Arctic and Arctic waters

The marine ecosystems of the Bering Sea and adjacent southern Chukchi Sea are experiencing rapid changes due to recent reductions in sea ice. Short-tailed shearwaters Puffinus tenuirostris visit this region in huge numbers between the boreal summer and autumn during non-breeding season, and represent one of the dominant top predators. To understand the implications for this species of ongoing environmental change in the Pacific sub-Arctic and Arctic seas, we tracked the migratory movements of 19 and 24 birds in 2010 and 2011, respectively, using light-level geolocators. In both years, tracked birds occupied the western (Okhotsk Sea and Kuril Islands) and eastern (southeast Bering Sea) North Pacific from May to July. In August–September of 2010, but not 2011, a substantial proportion (68 % of the tracked individuals in 2010 compared to 38 % in 2011) moved through the Bering Strait to feed in the Chukchi Sea. Based on the correlation with oceanographic variables, the probability of shearwater occurrence was highest in waters with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 8–10 °C over shallow depths. Furthermore, shearwaters spent more time flying when SST was warmer than 9 °C, suggesting increased search effort for prey. We hypothesized that the northward shift in the distribution of shearwaters may have been related to temperature-driven changes in the abundance of their dominant prey, krill (Euphausiacea), as the timing of krill spawning coincides with the seasonal increase in water temperature. Our results indicate a flexible response of foraging birds to ongoing changes in the sub-Arctic and Arctic ecosystems

A Shot in the Dark: Failing to Recognize the Link Between Physical and Mental Illness

A 74-year-old widowed white man with chronic rheumatoid arthritis presented with nausea and weight loss. He was diagnosed with failure to thrive and admitted for hydration. Misoprostol was determined to be the etiology of his symptoms and he was discharged home. Three days later, he killed himself with a gunshot to the head. Clinicians often fail to recognize those at high risk for suicide. Suicidal risk is increased in both psychiatric and physical illness, and particularly when both are present. Psychiatric illness, particularly depression, often underlies chronic medical illness. The purpose of this case report is to remind health care providers of the strong association between depression and chronic medical illness, and to consider this in all patients, including those who present solely with physical symptoms. Recognizing this association and screening for it, as recommended by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, may prevent the unnecessary tragedy of suicide

From Retinal Waves to Activity-Dependent Retinogeniculate Map Development

A neural model is described of how spontaneous retinal waves are formed in infant mammals, and how these waves organize activity-dependent development of a topographic map in the lateral geniculate nucleus, with connections from each eye segregated into separate anatomical layers. The model simulates the spontaneous behavior of starburst amacrine cells and retinal ganglion cells during the production of retinal waves during the first few weeks of mammalian postnatal development. It proposes how excitatory and inhibitory mechanisms within individual cells, such as Ca2+-activated K+ channels, and cAMP currents and signaling cascades, can modulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of waves, notably by controlling the after-hyperpolarization currents of starburst amacrine cells. Given the critical role of the geniculate map in the development of visual cortex, these results provide a foundation for analyzing the temporal dynamics whereby the visual cortex itself develops

Blood Flow and Glucose Metabolism in Stage IV Breast Cancer: Heterogeneity of Response During Chemotherapy

Objective: The purpose of the study was to compare early changes in blood flow (BF) and glucose metabolism (MRglu) in metastatic breast cancer lesions of patients treated with chemotherapy. Methods: Eleven women with stage IV cancer and lesions in breast, lymph nodes, liver, and bone were scanned before treatment and after the first course of chemotherapy. BF, distribution volume of water (Vd), MRglu/BF ratio, MRgluand its corresponding rate constants K1and k3were compared per tumor lesion before and during therapy. Results: At baseline, mean BF and MRgluvaried among different tumor lesions, but mean Vdwas comparable in all lesions. After one course of chemotherapy, mean MRgludecreased in all lesions. Mean BF decreased in breast and node lesions and increased in bone lesions. Vddecreased in breast and nodes, but did not change in bone lesions. The MRglu/BF ratio decreased in breast and bone lesions and increased in node lesions. In patients with multiple tumor lesions BF and MRgluresponse could be very heterogeneous, even within similar types of metastases. BF and MRgluincreased in lesions of patients who experienced early disease progression or showed no response during clinical follow-up. Conclusion: BF and MRgluchanges separately give unique information on different aspects of tumor response to chemotherapy. Changes in BF and MRgluparameters can be remarkably heterogeneous in patients with multiple lesions

Differential utilization of ketone bodies by neurons and glioma cell lines: a rationale for ketogenic diet as experimental glioma therapy

Background: Even in the presence of oxygen, malignant cells often highly depend on glycolysis for energy generation, a phenomenon known as the Warburg effect. One strategy targeting this metabolic phenotype is glucose restriction by administration of a high-fat, low-carbohydrate (ketogenic) diet. Under these conditions, ketone bodies are generated serving as an important energy source at least for non-transformed cells. Methods: To investigate whether a ketogenic diet might selectively impair energy metabolism in tumor cells, we characterized in vitro effects of the principle ketone body 3-hydroxybutyrate in rat hippocampal neurons and five glioma cell lines. In vivo, a non-calorie-restricted ketogenic diet was examined in an orthotopic xenograft glioma mouse model. Results: The ketone body metabolizing enzymes 3-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase 1 and 2 (BDH1 and 2), 3-oxoacid-CoA transferase 1 (OXCT1) and acetyl-CoA acetyltransferase 1 (ACAT1) were expressed at the mRNA and protein level in all glioma cell lines. However, no activation of the hypoxia-inducible factor-1alpha (HIF-1alpha) pathway was observed in glioma cells, consistent with the absence of substantial 3-hydroxybutyrate metabolism and subsequent accumulation of succinate. Further, 3-hydroxybutyrate rescued hippocampal neurons from glucose withdrawal-induced cell death but did not protect glioma cell lines. In hypoxia, mRNA expression of OXCT1, ACAT1, BDH1 and 2 was downregulated. In vivo, the ketogenic diet led to a robust increase of blood 3-hydroxybutyrate, but did not alter blood glucose levels or improve survival. Conclusion: In summary, glioma cells are incapable of compensating for glucose restriction by metabolizing ketone bodies in vitro, suggesting a potential disadvantage of tumor cells compared to normal cells under a carbohydrate-restricted ketogenic diet. Further investigations are necessary to identify co-treatment modalities, e.g. glycolysis inhibitors or antiangiogenic agents that efficiently target non-oxidative pathways

Exploring the relationship between video game expertise and fluid intelligence

Hundreds of millions of people play intellectually-demanding video games every day. What does individual performance on these games tell us about cognition? Here, we describe two studies that examine the potential link between intelligence and performance in one of the most popular video games genres in the world (Multiplayer Online Battle Arenas: MOBAs). In the first study, we show that performance in the popular MOBA League of Legends' correlates with fluid intelligence as measured under controlled laboratory conditions. In the second study, we also show that the age profile of performance in the two most widely-played MOBAs (League of Legends and DOTA II) matches that of raw fluid intelligence. We discuss and extend previous videogame literature on intelligence and videogames and suggest that commercial video games can be useful as 'proxy' tests of cognitive performance at a global population level