Assessing the impact of a health intervention via user-generated Internet content

Assessing the effect of a health-oriented intervention by traditional epidemiological methods is commonly based only on population segments that use healthcare services. Here we introduce a complementary framework for evaluating the impact of a targeted intervention, such as a vaccination campaign against an infectious disease, through a statistical analysis of user-generated content submitted on web platforms. Using supervised learning, we derive a nonlinear regression model for estimating the prevalence of a health event in a population from Internet data. This model is applied to identify control location groups that correlate historically with the areas, where a specific intervention campaign has taken place. We then determine the impact of the intervention by inferring a projection of the disease rates that could have emerged in the absence of a campaign. Our case study focuses on the influenza vaccination program that was launched in England during the 2013/14 season, and our observations consist of millions of geo-located search queries to the Bing search engine and posts on Twitter. The impact estimates derived from the application of the proposed statistical framework support conventional assessments of the campaign

The changing global distribution and prevalence of canine transmissible venereal tumour.

BACKGROUND: The canine transmissible venereal tumour (CTVT) is a contagious cancer that is naturally transmitted between dogs by the allogeneic transfer of living cancer cells during coitus. CTVT first arose several thousand years ago and has been reported in dog populations worldwide; however, its precise distribution patterns and prevalence remain unclear. RESULTS: We analysed historical literature and obtained CTVT prevalence information from 645 veterinarians and animal health workers in 109 countries in order to estimate CTVT's former and current global distribution and prevalence. This analysis confirmed that CTVT is endemic in at least 90 countries worldwide across all inhabited continents. CTVT is estimated to be present at a prevalence of one percent or more in dogs in at least 13 countries in South and Central America as well as in at least 11 countries in Africa and 8 countries in Asia. In the United States and Australia, CTVT was reported to be endemic only in remote indigenous communities. Comparison of current and historical reports of CTVT indicated that its prevalence has declined in Northern Europe, possibly due to changes in dog control laws during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Analysis of factors influencing CTVT prevalence showed that presence of free-roaming dogs was associated with increased CTVT prevalence, while dog spaying and neutering were associated with reduced CTVT prevalence. Our analysis indicated no gender bias for CTVT and we found no evidence that animals with CTVT frequently harbour concurrent infectious diseases. Vincristine was widely reported to be the most effective therapy for CTVT. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide a survey of the current global distribution of CTVT, confirming that CTVT is endemic in at least 90 countries worldwide. Additionally, our analysis highlights factors that continue to modify CTVT's prevalence around the world and implicates free-roaming dogs as a reservoir for the disease. Our analysis also documents the disappearance of the disease from the United Kingdom during the twentieth century, which appears to have been an unintentional result of the introduction of dog control policies.This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final version of this article has been published by BioMed Central: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1746-6148/10/168

A systematic review on integration mechanisms in human and animal health surveillance systems with a view to addressing global health security threats

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles

High-starch diets alter equine faecal microbiota and increase behavioural reactivity

Gut microbiota have been associated with health, disease and behaviour in several species and are an important link in gut-brain axis communication. Diet plays a key role in affecting the composition of gut microbiota. In horses, high-starch diets alter the hindgut microbiota. High-starch diets are also associated with increased behavioural reactivity in horses. These changes in microbiota and behaviour may be associated. This study compares the faecal microbiota and behaviour of 10 naïve ponies. A cross-over design was used with experimental groups fed high-starch (HS) or high-fibre (HF) diets. Results showed that ponies were more reactive and less settled when being fed the HS diet compared to the HF diet. Irrespective of diet, the bacterial profile was dominated by two main phyla, Firmicutes, closely followed by Bacteroidetes. However, at lower taxonomic levels multivariate analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequencing data showed diet affected faecal microbial community structure. The abundance of 85 OTUs differed significantly related to diet. Correlative relationships exist between dietary induced alterations to faecal microbiota and behaviour. Results demonstrate a clear link between diet, faecal microbial community composition and behaviour. Dietary induced alterations to gut microbiota play a role in affecting the behaviour of the host

Web-based infectious disease surveillance systems and public health perspectives: a systematic review

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Abstract Background Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases are a significant public health concern, and early detection and immediate response is crucial for disease control. These challenges have led to the need for new approaches and technologies to reinforce the capacity of traditional surveillance systems for detecting emerging infectious diseases. In the last few years, the availability of novel web-based data sources has contributed substantially to infectious disease surveillance. This study explores the burgeoning field of web-based infectious disease surveillance systems by examining their current status, importance, and potential challenges. Methods A systematic review framework was applied to the search, screening, and analysis of web-based infectious disease surveillance systems. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase databases to extensively review the English literature published between 2000 and 2015. Eleven surveillance systems were chosen for evaluation according to their high frequency of application. Relevant terms, including newly coined terms, development and classification of the surveillance systems, and various characteristics associated with the systems were studied. Results Based on a detailed and informative review of the 11 web-based infectious disease surveillance systems, it was evident that these systems exhibited clear strengths, as compared to traditional surveillance systems, but with some limitations yet to be overcome. The major strengths of the newly emerging surveillance systems are that they are intuitive, adaptable, low-cost, and operated in real-time, all of which are necessary features of an effective public health tool. The most apparent potential challenges of the web-based systems are those of inaccurate interpretation and prediction of health status, and privacy issues, based on an individuals internet activity. Conclusion Despite being in a nascent stage with further modification needed, web-based surveillance systems have evolved to complement traditional national surveillance systems. This review highlights ways in which the strengths of existing systems can be maintained and weaknesses alleviated to implement optimal web surveillance systems