Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States

Here, the authors demonstrate that variations of absolute humidity explain both the onset of wintertime influenza transmission and the overarching seasonality of this pathogen in temperate regions

Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Social distancing interventions such as school closure and prohibition of public gatherings are present in pandemic influenza preparedness plans. Predicting the effectiveness of intervention strategies in a pandemic is difficult. In the absence of other evidence, computer simulation can be used to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. We conducted simulations of a small community to determine the magnitude and timing of activation that would be necessary for social distancing interventions to arrest a future pandemic.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used a detailed, individual-based model of a real community with a population of approximately 30,000. We simulated the effect of four social distancing interventions: school closure, increased isolation of symptomatic individuals in their household, workplace nonattendance, and reduction of contact in the wider community. We simulated each of the intervention measures in isolation and in several combinations; and examined the effect of delays in the activation of interventions on the final and daily attack rates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For an epidemic with an R₀value of 1.5, a combination of all four social distancing measures could reduce the final attack rate from 33% to below 10% if introduced within 6 weeks from the introduction of the first case. In contrast, for an R₀of 2.5 these measures must be introduced within 2 weeks of the first case to achieve a similar reduction; delays of 2, 3 and 4 weeks resulted in final attack rates of 7%, 21% and 45% respectively. For an R₀of 3.5 the combination of all four measures could reduce the final attack rate from 73% to 16%, but only if introduced without delay; delays of 1, 2 or 3 weeks resulted in final attack rates of 19%, 35% or 63% respectively. For the higher R₀values no single measure has a significant impact on attack rates.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results suggest a critical role of social distancing in the potential control of a future pandemic and indicate that such interventions are capable of arresting influenza epidemic development, but only if they are used in combination, activated without delay and maintained for a relatively long period.</p

Comparison of three methods for ascertainment of contact information relevant to respiratory pathogen transmission in encounter networks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mathematical models of infection that consider targeted interventions are exquisitely dependent on the assumed mixing patterns of the population. We report on a pilot study designed to assess three different methods (one retrospective, two prospective) for obtaining contact data relevant to the determination of these mixing patterns.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>65 adults were asked to record their social encounters in each location visited during 6 study days using a novel method whereby a change in physical location of the study participant triggered data entry. Using a cross-over design, all participants recorded encounters on 3 days in a paper diary and 3 days using an electronic recording device (PDA). Participants were randomised to first prospective recording method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both methods captured more contacts than a pre-study questionnaire, but ascertainment using the paper diary was superior to the PDA (mean difference: 4.52 (95% CI 0.28, 8.77). Paper diaries were found more acceptable to the participants compared with the PDA. Statistical analysis confirms that our results are broadly consistent with those reported from large-scale European based surveys. An association between household size (trend 0.14, 95% CI (0.06, 0.22), <it>P </it>< 0.001) and composition (presence of child 0.37, 95% CI (0.17, 0.56), <it>P </it>< 0.001) and the total number of reported contacts was observed, highlighting the importance of sampling study populations based on household characteristics as well as age. New contacts were still being recorded on the third study day, but compliance had declined, indicating that the optimal number of sample days represents a trade-off between completeness and quality of data for an individual.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study's location-based reporting design allows greater scope compared to other methods for examining differences in the characteristics of encounters over a range of environments. Improved parameterisation of dynamic transmission models gained from work of this type will aid in the development of more robust decision support tools to assist health policy makers and planners.</p

Evaluating Temporal Factors in Combined Interventions of Workforce Shift and School Closure for Mitigating the Spread of Influenza

10.1371/journal.pone.0032203PLoS ONE7

Cell-type-specific profiling of protein-DNA interactions without cell isolation using targeted DamID with next-generation sequencing.

This protocol is an extension to: Nat. Protoc. 2, 1467-1478 (2007); doi:10.1038/nprot.2007.148; published online 7 June 2007The ability to profile transcription and chromatin binding in a cell-type-specific manner is a powerful aid to understanding cell-fate specification and cellular function in multicellular organisms. We recently developed targeted DamID (TaDa) to enable genome-wide, cell-type-specific profiling of DNA- and chromatin-binding proteins in vivo without cell isolation. As a protocol extension, this article describes substantial modifications to an existing protocol, and it offers additional applications. TaDa builds upon DamID, a technique for detecting genome-wide DNA-binding profiles of proteins, by coupling it with the GAL4 system in Drosophila to enable both temporal and spatial resolution. TaDa ensures that Dam-fusion proteins are expressed at very low levels, thus avoiding toxicity and potential artifacts from overexpression. The modifications to the core DamID technique presented here also increase the speed of sample processing and throughput, and adapt the method to next-generation sequencing technology. TaDa is robust, reproducible and highly sensitive. Compared with other methods for cell-type-specific profiling, the technique requires no cell-sorting, cross-linking or antisera, and binding profiles can be generated from as few as 10,000 total induced cells. By profiling the genome-wide binding of RNA polymerase II (Pol II), TaDa can also identify transcribed genes in a cell-type-specific manner. Here we describe a detailed protocol for carrying out TaDa experiments and preparing the material for next-generation sequencing. Although we developed TaDa in Drosophila, it should be easily adapted to other organisms with an inducible expression system. Once transgenic animals are obtained, the entire experimental procedure-from collecting tissue samples to generating sequencing libraries-can be accomplished within 5 d.This work was funded by a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award (103792), Wellcome Trust Programme Grant (092545) and BBSRC Project Grant (BB/L00786X/1) to A.H.B. A.H.B acknowledges core funding to the Gurdon Institute from the Wellcome Trust (092096) and CRUK (C6946/A14492).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nprot.2016.08

Oxaliplatin-DNA adduct formation in white blood cells of cancer patients

In this study, we investigated the kinetics of oxaliplatin-DNA adduct formation in white blood cells of cancer patients in relation to efficacy as well as oxaliplatin-associated neurotoxicity. Thirty-seven patients with various solid tumours received 130 mg m−2 oxaliplatin as a 2-h infusion. Oxaliplatin-DNA adduct levels were measured in the first cycle using adsorptive stripping voltammetry. Platinum concentrations were measured in ultrafiltrate and plasma using a validated flameless atomic absorption spectrometry method. DNA adduct levels showed a characteristic time course, but were not correlated to platinum pharmacokinetics and varied considerably among individuals. In patients showing tumour response, adduct levels after 24 and 48 h were significantly higher than in nonresponders. Oxaliplatin-induced neurotoxicity was more pronounced but was not significantly different in patients with high adduct levels. The potential of oxaliplatin-DNA adduct measurements as pharmacodynamic end point should be further investigated in future trials

The Impact of Case Diagnosis Coverage and Diagnosis Delays on the Effectiveness of Antiviral Strategies in Mitigating Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 2009

BACKGROUND: Neuraminidase inhibitors were used to reduce the transmission of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 at the early stages of the 2009/2010 pandemic. Policies for diagnosis of influenza for the purposes of antiviral intervention differed markedly between and within countries, leading to differences in the timing and scale of antiviral usage. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The impact of the percentage of symptomatic infected individuals who were diagnosed, and of delays to diagnosis, for three antiviral intervention strategies (each with and without school closure) were determined using a simulation model of an Australian community. Epidemic characteristics were based on actual data from the A/H1N1 2009 pandemic including reproduction number, serial interval and age-specific infection rate profile. In the absence of intervention an illness attack rate (AR) of 24.5% was determined from an estimated R(0) of 1.5; this was reduced to 21%, 16.5% or 13% by treatment-only, treatment plus household prophylaxis, or treatment plus household plus extended prophylaxis antiviral interventions respectively, assuming that diagnosis occurred 24 hours after symptoms arose and that 50% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed. If diagnosis occurred without delay, ARs decreased to 17%, 12.2% or 8.8% respectively. If 90% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed (with a 24 hour delay), ARs decreased to 17.8%, 11.1% and 7.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The ability to rapidly diagnose symptomatic cases and to diagnose a high proportion of cases was shown to improve the effectiveness of all three antiviral strategies. For epidemics with R(0)< = 1.5 our results suggest that when the case diagnosis coverage exceeds ∼70% the size of the antiviral stockpile required to implement the extended prophylactic strategy decreases. The addition of at least four weeks of school closure was found to further reduce cumulative and peak attack rates and the size of the required antiviral stockpile

Analysis of the effectiveness of interventions used during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Following the emergence of the A/H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic, public health interventions were activated to lessen its potential impact. Computer modelling and simulation can be used to determine the potential effectiveness of the social distancing and antiviral drug therapy interventions that were used at the early stages of the pandemic, providing guidance to public health policy makers as to intervention strategies in future pandemics involving a highly pathogenic influenza strain.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An individual-based model of a real community with a population of approximately 30,000 was used to determine the impact of alternative interventions strategies, including those used in the initial stages of the 2009 pandemic. Different interventions, namely school closure and antiviral strategies, were simulated in isolation and in combination to form different plausible scenarios. We simulated epidemics with reproduction numbers R₀of 1.5, which aligns with estimates in the range 1.4-1.6 determined from the initial outbreak in Mexico.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>School closure of 1 week was determined to have minimal effect on reducing overall illness attack rate. Antiviral drug treatment of 50% of symptomatic cases reduced the attack rate by 6.5%, from an unmitigated rate of 32.5% to 26%. Treatment of diagnosed individuals combined with additional household prophylaxis reduced the final attack rate to 19%. Further extension of prophylaxis to close contacts (in schools and workplaces) further reduced the overall attack rate to 13% and reduced the peak daily illness rate from 120 to 22 per 10,000 individuals. We determined the size of antiviral stockpile required; the ratio of the required number of antiviral courses to population was 13% for the treatment-only strategy, 25% for treatment and household prophylaxis and 40% for treatment, household and extended prophylaxis. Additional simulations suggest that coupling school closure with the antiviral strategies further reduces epidemic impact.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results suggest that the aggressive use of antiviral drugs together with extended school closure may substantially slow the rate of influenza epidemic development. These strategies are more rigorous than those actually used during the early stages of the relatively mild 2009 pandemic, and are appropriate for future pandemics that have high morbidity and mortality rates.</p

Mitotic catenation is monitored and resolved by a PKCε-regulated pathway.

Exit from mitosis is controlled by silencing of the spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC). It is important that preceding exit, all sister chromatid pairs are correctly bioriented, and that residual catenation is resolved, permitting complete sister chromatid separation in the ensuing anaphase. Here we determine that the metaphase response to catenation in mammalian cells operates through PKCε. The PKCε-controlled pathway regulates exit from the SAC only when mitotic cells are challenged by retained catenation and this delayed exit is characterized by BubR1-high and Mad2-low kinetochores. In addition, we show that this pathway is necessary to facilitate resolution of retained catenanes in mitosis. When delayed by catenation in mitosis, inhibition of PKCε results in premature entry into anaphase with PICH-positive strands and chromosome bridging. These findings demonstrate the importance of PKCε-mediated regulation in protection from loss of chromosome integrity in cells failing to resolve catenation in G2