A simulation tool for better management of retinal services

Background: Advances in the management of retinal diseases have been fast-paced as new treatments become available, resulting in increasing numbers of patients receiving treatment in hospital retinal services. These patients require frequent and long-term follow-up and repeated treatments, resulting in increased pressure on clinical workloads. Due to limited clinic capacity, many National Health Service (NHS) clinics are failing to maintain recommended follow-up intervals for patients receiving care. As such, clear and robust, long term retinal service models are required to assess and respond to the needs of local populations, both currently and in the future. Methods: A discrete event simulation (DES) tool was developed to facilitate the improvement of retinal services by identifying efficiencies and cost savings within the pathway of care. For a mid-size hospital in England serving a population of over 500,000, we used 36 months of patient level data in conjunction with statistical forecasting and simulation to predict the impact of making changes within the service. Results: A simulation of increased demand and a potential solution of the 'Treat and Extend' (T&E) regimen which is reported to result in better outcomes, in combination with virtual clinics which improve quality, effectiveness and productivity and thus increase capacity is presented. Without the virtual clinic, where T&E is implemented along with the current service, we notice a sharp increase in the number of follow-ups, number of Anti-VEGF injections, and utilisation of resources. In the case of combining T&E with virtual clinics, there is a negligible (almost 0%) impact on utilisation of resources. Conclusions: Expansion of services to accommodate increasing number of patients seen and treated in retinal services is feasible with service re-organisation. It is inevitable that some form of initial investment is required to implement service expansion through T&E and virtual clinics. However, modelling with DES indicates that such investment is outweighed by cost reductions in the long term as more patients receive optimal treatment and retain vision with better outcomes. The model also shows that the service will experience an average of 10% increase in surplus capacity.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Sorafenib plus intensive chemotherapy in newly diagnosed FLT3-ITD AML:a randomized, placebo-controlled study by the ALLG.

Sorafenib maintenance improves outcome after hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) for patients with FLT3-ITD acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Although promising outcomes have been reported for sorafenib plus intensive chemotherapy, randomized data are limited. This placebo-controlled, phase 2 study (ACTRN12611001112954) randomized 102 patients 18-65 years (2:1) to sorafenib vs placebo (days 4-10) combined with intensive induction; idarubicin 12mg/m2 days 1-3 plus cytarabine 1.5g/m2 twice daily on days 1,3,5,7 (18-55 years) or 100mg/m2 days 1-7 (56-65 years), consolidation therapy, followed by maintenance treatment for 12 months (post-HCT excluded) in newly diagnosed FLT3-ITD AML. Four patients were excluded from modified intention-to-treat final analysis (3 not dosed and 1 later found to be FLT3-ITD negative). Rates of complete remission (CR)/CR with incomplete hematologic recovery (CR/CRi) were high in both arms (sorafenib 78%/9%, placebo 70%/24%). With 49.1 months median follow-up, the primary endpoint of event-free survival (EFS) was not improved by sorafenib (2-year EFS 47.9% vs 45.4%)(hazard ratio [HR] 0.87;95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51-1.51, p=0.61). Two-year overall survival (OS) was 67% in the sorafenib arm and 58% in the placebo arm (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.42-1.39). For patients transplanted in first remission, 2-year OS was 84% and 67% in the sorafenib and placebo arms, respectively (HR 0.45;95% CI 0.18-1.12, p=0.08). In exploratory analyses, FLT3-ITD measurable residual disease negative status (<0.001%) post-induction was associated with improved 2-year OS (83% vs 60%) (HR 0.4;95% CI 0.17-0.93, p=0.028). In conclusion, routine use of pre-transplant sorafenib plus chemotherapy in unselected patients with FLT3-ITD AML is not supported by this study

Fortune Favours the Bold: An Agent-Based Model Reveals Adaptive Advantages of Overconfidence in War

Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures. We report the results of an agent-based model of inter-state conflict, which allows us to evaluate the performance of different strategies in competition with each other. Counter-intuitively, we find that overconfident states predominate in the population at the expense of unbiased or underconfident states. Overconfident states win because: (1) they are more likely to accumulate resources from frequent attempts at conquest; (2) they are more likely to gang up on weak states, forcing victims to split their defences; and (3) when the decision threshold for attacking requires an overwhelming asymmetry of power, unbiased and underconfident states shirk many conflicts they are actually likely to win. These “adaptive advantages” of overconfidence may, via selection effects, learning, or evolved psychology, have spread and become entrenched among modern states, organizations and decision-makers. This would help to explain the frequent association of overconfidence and war, even if it no longer brings benefits today

Downregulation of Chloroplast RPS1 Negatively Modulates Nuclear Heat-Responsive Expression of HsfA2 and Its Target Genes in Arabidopsis

Heat stress commonly leads to inhibition of photosynthesis in higher plants. The transcriptional induction of heat stress-responsive genes represents the first line of inducible defense against imbalances in cellular homeostasis. Although heat stress transcription factor HsfA2 and its downstream target genes are well studied, the regulatory mechanisms by which HsfA2 is activated in response to heat stress remain elusive. Here, we show that chloroplast ribosomal protein S1 (RPS1) is a heat-responsive protein and functions in protein biosynthesis in chloroplast. Knockdown of RPS1 expression in the rps1 mutant nearly eliminates the heat stress-activated expression of HsfA2 and its target genes, leading to a considerable loss of heat tolerance. We further confirm the relationship existed between the downregulation of RPS1 expression and the loss of heat tolerance by generating RNA interference-transgenic lines of RPS1. Consistent with the notion that the inhibited activation of HsfA2 in response to heat stress in the rps1 mutant causes heat-susceptibility, we further demonstrate that overexpression of HsfA2 with a viral promoter leads to constitutive expressions of its target genes in the rps1 mutant, which is sufficient to reestablish lost heat tolerance and recovers heat-susceptible thylakoid stability to wild-type levels. Our findings reveal a heat-responsive retrograde pathway in which chloroplast translation capacity is a critical factor in heat-responsive activation of HsfA2 and its target genes required for cellular homeostasis under heat stress. Thus, RPS1 is an essential yet previously unknown determinant involved in retrograde activation of heat stress responses in higher plants

The International HapMap Project

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62838/1/nature02168.pd

The psychology of passion: A meta-analytical review of a decade of research on intrapersonal outcomes

It is just over a decade since Vallerand et al. (J Personal Soc Psychol 85:756–767, 2003) introduced the dualistic model of passion. In this study, we conduct a meta-analytical review of relationships between Vallerand et al’s two passions (viz. harmonious and obsessive), and intrapersonal outcomes, and test the moderating role of age, gender, domain, and culture. A systematic literature search yielded 94 studies, within which 27 criterion variables were reported. These criterion variables derived from four research areas within the intrapersonal sphere: (a) well-/ill-being, (b) motivation factors, (c) cognitive outcomes and, (d) behaviour and performance. From these areas we retrieved 1308 independent effect sizes and analysed them using random-effects models. Results showed harmonious passion positively corresponded with positive intrapersonal outcomes (e.g., positive affect, flow, performance). Obsessive passion, conversely, showed positive associations with positive and negative

Reduced Mitochondrial Membrane Potential is a Late Adaptation of Trypanosoma brucei brucei to Isometamidium Preceded by Mutations in the γ Subunit of the F1Fo- ATPase

Background: Isometamidium is the main prophylactic drug used to prevent the infection of livestock with trypanosomes that cause Animal African Trypanosomiasis. As well as the animal infective trypanosome species, livestock can also harbor the closely related human infective subspecies T. b. gambiense and T. b. rhodesiense. Resistance to isometamidium is a growing concern, as is cross-resistance to the diamidine drugs diminazene and pentamidine. Methodology/Principal Findings: Two isometamidium resistant Trypanosoma brucei clones were generated (ISMR1 and ISMR15), being 7270- and 16,000-fold resistant to isometamidium, respectively, which retained their ability to grow in vitro and establish an infection in mice. Considerable cross-resistance was shown to ethidium bromide and diminazene, with minor cross-resistance to pentamidine. The mitochondrial membrane potentials of both resistant cell lines were significantly reduced compared to the wild type. The net uptake rate of isometamidium was reduced 2-3-fold but isometamidium efflux was similar in wild-type and resistant lines. Fluorescence microscopy and PCR analysis revealed that ISMR1 and ISMR15 had completely lost their kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) and both lines carried a mutation in the nuclearly encoded γ subunit gene of F1 ATPase, truncating the protein by 22 amino acids. The mutation compensated for the loss of the kinetoplast in bloodstream forms, allowing near-normal growth, and conferred considerable resistance to isometamidium and ethidium as well as significant resistance to diminazene and pentamidine, when expressed in wild type trypanosomes. Subsequent exposure to either isometamidium or ethidium led to rapid loss of kDNA and a further increase in isometamidium resistance. Conclusions/Significance: Sub-lethal exposure to isometamidium gives rise to viable but highly resistant trypanosomes that, depending on sub-species, are infective to humans and cross-resistant to at least some diamidine drugs. The crucial mutation is in the F1 ATPase γ subunit, which allows loss of kDNA and results in a reduction of the mitochondrial membrane potential