Personalized modeling for prediction with decision-path models

Deriving predictive models in medicine typically relies on a population approach where a single model is developed from a dataset of individuals. In this paper we describe and evaluate a personalized approach in which we construct a new type of decision tree model called decision-path model that takes advantage of the particular features of a given person of interest. We introduce three personalized methods that derive personalized decision-path models. We compared the performance of these methods to that of Classification And Regression Tree (CART) that is a population decision tree to predict seven different outcomes in five medical datasets. Two of the three personalized methods performed statistically significantly better on area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier skill score compared to CART. The personalized approach of learning decision path models is a new approach for predictive modeling that can perform better than a population approach

Spontaneous cytokine production in children according to biological characteristics and environmental exposures.

BACKGROUND: Environmental factors are likely to have profound effects on the development of host immune responses, with serious implications for infectious diseases and inflammatory disorders such as asthma. OBJECTIVE: This study was designed to investigate the effects of environmental exposures on the cytokine profile of children. METHODS: The study involved measurement of T helper (Th) 1 (interferon-gamma), 2 [interleukin (IL)-5 and IL-13], and the regulatory cytokine IL-10 in unstimulated peripheral blood leukocytes from 1,376 children 4-11 years of age living in a poor urban area of the tropics. We also assessed the impact of environmental exposures in addition to biological characteristics recorded at the time of blood collection and earlier in childhood (0-3 years before blood collection). RESULTS: The proportion of children producing IL-10 was greater among those without access to drinking water [p < 0.05, chi-square test, odds ratio (OR) = 1.67]. The proportion of children producing IL-5 and IL-10 (OR = 10.76) was significantly greater in households that had never had a sewage system (p < 0.05, trend test). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide evidence for the profound effects of environmental exposures in early life as well as immune homeostasis in later childhood. Decreased hygiene (lack of access to clean drinking water and sanitation) in the first 3 years of life is associated with higher spontaneous IL-10 production up to 8 years later in life

Essential Hypertension Is Associated With Changes in Gut Microbial Metabolic Pathways A Multisite Analysis of Ambulatory Blood Pressure

Recent evidence supports a role for the gut microbiota in hypertension, but whether ambulatory blood pressure is associated with gut microbiota and their metabolites remains unclear. We characterized the function of the gut microbiota, their metabolites and receptors in untreated human hypertensive participants in Australian metropolitan and regional areas. Ambulatory blood pressure, fecal microbiome predicted from 16S rRNA gene sequencing, plasma and fecal metabolites called short-chain fatty acid, and expression of their receptors were analyzed in 70 untreated and otherwise healthy participants from metropolitan and regional communities. Most normotensives were female (66%) compared with hypertensives (35%, P<0.01), but there was no difference in age between the groups (59.2±7.7 versus 60.3±6.6 years old). Based on machine learning multivariate covariance analyses of de-noised amplicon sequence variant prevalence data, we determined that there were no significant differences in predicted gut microbiome α- and β-diversity metrics between normotensives versus essential or masked hypertensives. However, select taxa were specific to these groups, notably Acidaminococcus spp., Eubacterium fissicatena, and Muribaculaceae were higher, while Ruminococcus and Eubacterium eligens were lower in hypertensives. Importantly, normotensive and essential hypertensive cohorts could be differentiated based on gut microbiome gene pathways and metabolites. Specifically, hypertensive participants exhibited higher plasma acetate and butyrate, but their immune cells expressed reduced levels of short-chain fatty acid-activated GPR43 (G-protein coupled receptor 43). In conclusion, gut microbial diversity did not change in essential hypertension, but we observed a significant shift in microbial gene pathways. Hypertensive subjects had lower levels of GPR43, putatively blunting their response to blood pressure-lowering metabolites

Optimal strategies for controlling riverine tsetse flies using targets: a modelling study

Background: Tsetse flies occur in much of sub-Saharan Africa where they transmit the trypanosomes that cause the diseases of sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in livestock. One of the most economical and effective methods of tsetse control is the use of insecticide-treated screens, called targets, that simulate hosts. Targets have been ~1m2, but recently it was shown that those tsetse that occupy riverine situations, and which are the main vectors of sleeping sickness, respond well to targets only ~0.06m2. The cheapness of these tiny targets suggests the need to reconsider what intensity and duration of target deployments comprise the most cost-effective strategy in various riverine habitats. Methodology/Principal Findings: A deterministic model, written in Excel spreadsheets and managed by Visual Basic for Applications, simulated the births, deaths and movement of tsetse confined to a strip of riverine vegetation composed of segments of habitat in which the tsetse population was either selfsustaining, or not sustainable unless supplemented by immigrants. Results suggested that in many situations the use of tiny targets at high density for just a few months per year would be the most cost-effective strategy for rapidly reducing tsetse densities by the ~90% expected to have a great impact on the incidence of sleeping sickness. Local elimination of tsetse becomes feasible when targets are deployed in isolated situations, or where the only invasion occurs from populations that are not self-sustaining. Conclusion/Significance: Seasonal use of tiny targets deserves field trials. The ability to recognise habitat that contains tsetse populations which are not self-sustaining could improve the planning of all methods of tsetse control, against any species, in riverine, savannah or forest situations. Criteria to assist such recognition are suggested

Immunogenic Salivary Proteins of Triatoma infestans: Development of a Recombinant Antigen for the Detection of Low-Level Infestation of Triatomines

Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is a neglected disease with 20 million people at risk in Latin America. The main control strategies are based on insecticide spraying to eliminate the domestic vectors, the most effective of which is Triatoma infestans. This approach has been very successful in some areas. However, there is a constant risk of recrudescence in once-endemic regions resulting from the re-establishment of T. infestans and the invasion of other triatomine species. To detect low-level infestations of triatomines after insecticide spraying, we have developed a new epidemiological tool based on host responses against salivary antigens of T. infestans. We identified and synthesized a highly immunogenic salivary protein. This protein was used successfully to detect differences in the infestation level of T. infestans of households in Bolivia and the exposure to other triatomine species. The development of such an exposure marker to detect low-level infestation may also be a useful tool for other disease vectors