Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000-50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 degrees C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO(2) emissions over 2000-50 to 1,000 Gt CO(2) yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 degrees C-and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO(2) yields a 50% probability-given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000-06 CO(2) emissions were approximately 234 Gt CO(2), less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiqués envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12-45% probability of exceeding 2 degrees C-assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 degrees C rises to 53-87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020

Affective Reactivity to Daily Stressors and Long-Term Risk of Reporting a Chronic Physical Health Condition

BACKGROUND: Daily stressors, such as an argument with a spouse or an impending deadline, are associated with short-term changes in physical health symptoms. Whether these minor hassles have long-term physical health ramifications, however, is largely unknown. PURPOSE: The current study examined whether exposure and reactivity to daily stressors is associated with long-term risk of reporting a chronic physical health condition. METHODS: Participants (N = 435) from the National Study of Daily Experiences completed a series of daily diary interviews between 1995 and 1996 and again 10 years later. RESULTS: Greater affective (i.e., emotional) reactivity to daily stressors at Time 1 was associated with an increased risk of reporting a chronic physical health condition at Time 2. CONCLUSION: Results indicate that how people respond to the daily stressors in their lives is predictive of future chronic health conditions