An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. A global attribution is performed initially to identify the important forcing and predictor components of the model . Ensemble hindcasts of surface air temperature anomaly fields are then generated, based on the forcings and predictors identified as important, under a series of different prediction ‘modes’ and their performance is evaluated. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to 10 years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. It is suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to facilitate further developments, including the prediction of other surface variables and the ability to incorporate additional predictors within the model that are shown to contribute significantly to variability at the local scale. It is also semi-operational in the sense that forecasts have been produced for the coming decade and can be updated when additional data becomes available

Percentile reference values for anthropometric body composition indices in European children from the IDEFICS study

INTRODUCTION: To characterise the nutritional status in children with obesity or wasting conditions, European anthropometric reference values for body composition measures beyond the body mass index (BMI) are needed. Differentiated assessment of body composition in children has long been hampered by the lack of appropriate references. OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study is to provide percentiles for body composition indices in normal weight European children, based on the IDEFICS cohort (Identification and prevention of Dietary-and lifestyle-induced health Effects in Children and infantS). METHODS: Overall 18 745 2.0-10.9-year-old children from eight countries participated in the study. Children classified as overweight/obese or underweight according to IOTF (N = 5915) were excluded from the analysis. Anthropometric measurements (BMI (N = 12 830); triceps, subscapular, fat mass and fat mass index (N = 11 845-11 901); biceps, suprailiac skinfolds, sum of skinfolds calculated from skinfold thicknesses (N = 8129-8205), neck circumference (N = 12 241); waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio (N = 12 381)) were analysed stratified by sex and smoothed 1st, 3rd, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 97th and 99th percentile curves were calculated using GAMLSS. RESULTS: Percentile values of the most important anthropometric measures related to the degree of adiposity are depicted for European girls and boys. Age-and sex-specific differences were investigated for all measures. As an example, the 50th and 99th percentile values of waist circumference ranged from 50.7-59.2 cm and from 51.3-58.7 cm in 4.5-to < 5.0-year-old girls and boys, respectively, to 60.6-74.5 cm in girls and to 59.9-76.7 cm in boys at the age of 10.5-10.9 years. CONCLUSION: The presented percentile curves may aid a differentiated assessment of total and abdominal adiposity in European children

Obesity management and continuing medical education in primary care: results of a Swiss survey

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The worldwide increase in obesity is becoming a major health concern. General practitioners (GPs) play a central role in managing obesity. We aimed to examine Swiss GPs self-reported practice in diagnosis and treatment of obesity with a special focus on the performance of waist measurement.. METHODS: A structured self-reported questionnaire was mailed to 323 GPs recruited from four urban physician networks in Switzerland. Measures included professional experience, type of practice, obesity-related continuing medical education (CME) and practice in dealing with obesity such as waist measurement. We assessed the association between the performance of waist measurement and obesity-related CME by multivariate ordered logistic regression controlling for GP characteristics as potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 187 GPs responded to the questionnaire. More than half of the GPs felt confident in managing obesity. The majority of the GPs (73%) spent less than 4 days in the last 5 years on obesity-related CME. More than half of GPs gave advice to reduce energy intakes (64%), intakes of high caloric and alcoholic drinks (56%) and to increase the physical activity (78%). Half of the GPs seldom performed waist measurement and documentation. The frequency of obesity-related CME was independently associated with the performance of waist measurement when controlled for GPs' characteristics by multivariate ordered logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of GPs followed guideline recommendations promoting physical activity and dietary counselling. We observed a gap between the increasing evidence for waist circumference assessment as an important measure in obesity management and actual clinical practice. Our data indicated that specific obesity-related CME might help to reduce this gap

Role of the monocarboxylate transporter MCT1 in the uptake of lactate during active recovery

Purpose We assessed the role of monocarboxylate transporter 1 (MCT1) on lactate clearance during an active recovery after high-intensity exercise, by comparing genetic groups based on the T1470A (rs1049434) MCT1 polymorphism, whose influence on lactate transport has been proven. Methods Sixteen young male elite field hockey players participated in this study. All of them completed two 400 m maximal run tests performed on different days, followed by 40 min of active or passive recovery. Lactate samples were measured immediately after the tests, and at min 10, 20, 30 and 40 of the recoveries. Blood lactate decreases were calculated for each 10-min period. Participants were distributed into three groups according to the T1470A polymorphism (TT, TA and AA). Results TT group had a lower blood lactate decrease than AA group during the 10?20 min period of the active recovery (p = 0.018). This period had the highest blood lactate for the whole sample, significantly differing from the other periods (p ? 0.003). During the passive recovery, lactate declines were constant except for the 0?10-min period (p ? 0.003), suggesting that liver uptake is similar in all the genetic groups, and that the difference seen during the active recovery is mainly due to muscle lactate uptake. Conclusions These differences according to the polymorphic variant T1470A suggest that MCT1 affects the plasma lactate decrease during a crucial period of active recovery, where the maximal lactate amount is cleared (i.e. 10?20 min period)

Stochastic Dominance Analysis of CTA Funds

In this paper, we employ the stochastic dominance approach to rank the performance of commodity trading advisors (CTA) funds. An advantage of this approach is that it alleviates the problems that can arise if CTA returns are not normally distributed by utilizing the entire returns distribution. We find both first-order and higher-order stochastic dominance relationships amongst the CTA funds and conclude that investors would be better off investing in the first-order dominant funds to maximize their expected utilities and expected wealth. However, for higher-order dominant CTA, riskaverse investors can maximize their expected utilities but not their expected wealth. We conclude that the stochastic dominance approach is more appropriate compared with traditional approaches as a filter in the CTA selection process given that a meaningful economic interpretation of the results is possible as the entire return distribution is utilized when returns are non-normal

Physical fitness, fatigue, and quality of life after liver transplantation

Fatigue is often experienced after liver transplantation. The aims of this cross-sectional study were to assess physical fitness (cardiorespiratory fitness, neuromuscular fitness, body composition) in liver transplant recipients and to explore whether physical fitness is related to severity of fatigue. In addition, we explored the relationship between physical fitness and health-related quality of life. Included were 18 patients 1–5 years after transplantation (aged 48.0 ± 11.8 years) with varying severity of fatigue. Peak oxygen uptake during cycle ergometry, 6-min walk distance, isokinetic muscle strength of the knee extensors, body mass index, waist circumference, skinfold thickness, severity of fatigue, and health-related quality of life were measured. Cardiorespiratory fitness in the liver transplant recipients was on average 16–34% lower than normative values (P ≤ 0.05). Furthermore, the prevalence of obesity seemed to be higher than in the general population (17 vs. 10%). We found no deficit in neuromuscular fitness. Cardiorespiratory fitness was the only fitness component that was related with severity of fatigue (rs = −0.61 to rs = -0.50, P ≤ 0.05). Particularly cardiorespiratory fitness was related with several aspects of health-related quality of life (rs = 0.48 to rs = 0.70, P ≤ 0.05). Results of our study imply that cardiorespiratory fitness and body composition are impaired in liver transplant recipients and that fitness is related with severity of fatigue (only cardiorespiratory fitness) and quality of life (particularly cardiorespiratory fitness) in this group. These findings have implications for the development of rehabilitation programs for liver transplant recipients

Smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and family history and the risks of acute myocardial infarction and unstable angina pectoris: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few studies investigated the association between smoking, alcohol consumption, or physical activity and the risk of unstable angina pectoris (UAP), while the strength of these associations may differ compared to other coronary diseases such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Therefore, we investigated whether the associations of these lifestyle factors with UAP differed from those with AMI. Additionally, we investigated whether these effects differed between subjects with and without a family history of myocardial infarction (MI).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The CAREMA study consists of 21,148 persons, aged 20-59 years at baseline and randomly sampled from the Maastricht region in 1987-1997. At baseline, all participants completed a self-administered questionnaire. After follow-up of maximally 16.9 years, 420 AMI and 274 UAP incident cases were registered. Incidence rate ratios (RRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For both diseases, smoking increased the risk while alcohol consumption was associated with a protective effect. Associations with both risk factors were stronger for AMI than UAP, although this difference was only statistically significant for smoking. In men, an inverse association was found with physical activity during leisure time which seemed to be stronger for the risk of UAP than of AMI. On the contrary, physical activity during leisure time was associated with an increased risk of both AMI and UAP in women which seemed to be weaker for UAP than for AMI. Except for occupational physical activity in women, no significant interactions on a multiplicative scale were found between the lifestyle factors and family history of MI. Nevertheless, the highest risks were found in subjects with both a positive family history and the most unfavorable level of the lifestyle factors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The strength of the associations with the lifestyle factors did not differ between AMI and UAP, except for smoking. Furthermore, the effects of the lifestyle factors on the risk of both coronary diseases were similar for subjects with and without a positive family history.</p

Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy

Recent estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals are larger than previously thought. One potential reason for these larger estimates may be the different temperature metrics used to estimate the observed global mean warming for the historical period, as they affect the size of the remaining carbon budget. Here we explain the reasons behind these remaining carbon budget increases, and discuss how methodological choices of the global mean temperature metric and the reference period influence estimates of the remaining carbon budget. We argue that the choice of the temperature metric should depend on the domain of application. For scientific estimates of total or remaining carbon budgets, globally averaged surface air temperature estimates should be used consistently for the past and the future. However, when used to inform the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal, a temperature metric consistent with the science that was underlying and directly informed the Paris Agreement should be applied. The resulting remaining carbon budgets should be calculated using the appropriate metric or adjusted to reflect these differences among temperature metrics. Transparency and understanding of the implications of such choices are crucial to providing useful information that can bridge the science–policy gap

Design of the Balance@Work project: systematic development, evaluation and implementation of an occupational health guideline aimed at the prevention of weight gain among employees

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Occupational health professionals may play an important role in preventive health promotion activities for employees. However, due to a lack of knowledge and evidence- and practice based methods and strategies, interventions are hardly being implemented by occupational physicians to date. The aim of the Balance@Work project is to develop, evaluate, and implement an occupational health guideline aimed at the prevention of weight gain among employees.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Following the guideline development protocol of the Netherlands Society of Occupational Medicine and the Intervention Mapping protocol, the guideline was developed based on literature, interviews with relevant stakeholders, and consensus among an expert group. The guideline consists of an individual and an environmental component. The individual component includes recommendations for occupational physicians on how to promote physical activity and healthy dietary behavior based on principles of motivational interviewing. The environmental component contains an obesogenic environment assessment tool. The guideline is evaluated in a randomised controlled trial among 20 occupational physicians. Occupational physicians in the intervention group apply the guideline to eligible workers during 6 months. Occupational physicians in the control group provide care as usual. Measurements take place at baseline and 6, 12, and 18 months thereafter. Primary outcome measures include waist circumference, daily physical activity and dietary behavior. Secondary outcome measures include sedentary behavior, determinants of behavior change, body weight and body mass index, cardiovascular disease risk profile, and quality of life. Additionally, productivity, absenteeism, and cost-effectiveness are assessed.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Improving workers' daily physical activity and dietary behavior may prevent weight gain and subsequently improve workers' health, increase productivity, and reduce absenteeism. After an effect- and process evaluation the guideline will be adjusted and, after authorisation, published. Together with several implementation aids, the published guideline will be disseminated broadly by the Netherlands Society of Occupational Medicine.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ISRCTN73545254/NTR1190</p