Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the volume of the excursion set of a function $f:\mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}$ above a given threshold, under a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is assumed to be known. In the industrial world, this corresponds to the problem of estimating a probability of failure of a system. When only an expensive-to-simulate model of the system is available, the budget for simulations is usually severely limited and therefore classical Monte Carlo methods ought to be avoided. One of the main contributions of this article is to derive SUR (stepwise uncertainty reduction) strategies from a Bayesian-theoretic formulation of the problem of estimating a probability of failure. These sequential strategies use a Gaussian process model of $f$ and aim at performing evaluations of $f$ as efficiently as possible to infer the value of the probability of failure. We compare these strategies to other strategies also based on a Gaussian process model for estimating a probability of failure.Comment: This is an author-generated postprint version. The published version is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Electron microscopic demonstration of centrifugal nerve fibers in the human optic nerve

Electron microscopic views of centrifugal nerve fibers in the optic nerve stump of a 56-year-old man are presented. These nerve fibers had survived for 16 days after removal of the corresponding eyeball and exhibited terminal swellings pointing in a distal direction and indicating axoplasmic flow towards the removed eye. The centrifugal nerves in this adult lack any evidence of attempted regeneration that has earlier been observed under similar conditions in the optic nerve stump of a child. Zentrifugale (antidrome, efferente) Nervenfasern sind hier zum ersten Mal mit dem Elektronenmikroskop im menschlichen Sehnerven dargestellt worden. Diese Nervenfasern wurden in dem Sehnervenstumpf eines 56jährigen Mannes 16 Tage nach der Entfernung des dazugehörigen Auges gefunden. Endschwellungen dieser Nervenfasern waren distal ausgerichtet und deuteten damit einen Axoplasmafluß in Richtung des entfernten Auges an. Während deutliche Regenerationsversuche an den distalen Enden unterbrochener zentrifugaler Nervenfasern im Sehnervenstumpf eines Kindes früher beobachtet worden sind, fanden sich im Sehnerven dieses Erwachsenen keinerlei Zeichen von Regeneration der zentrifugalen Fasern.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47369/1/417_2004_Article_BF00414787.pd

Mechanical modeling of skin

The chapter describes the work that was performed in the soft tissue biomechanics laboratory at Eindhoven University of Technology on the biomechanics of skin. A rationale is given for the changes from standard testing methods to inverse methods, from in vitro to in vivo and back to in vitro testing and for the more detailed studies on individual skin layers of the last decade. The chapter tries to explain how our vision on testing methods and modeling changed over the years and why the pursuit towards a complete constitutive model is still ongoing