Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Pericardial mesothelioma following mantle field radiotherapy

A 49-year-old female was referred with recurrent pericardial effusion following mantle field radiotherapy for Hodgkin s lymphoma. She underwent video-assisted thoracoscopy and resection of a pericardial window. Intraoperatively she suffered a cardiac arrest and subsequently died in the early postoperative period despite maximal therapy. Pathological examination revealed extensive myocardial fibrosis and multiple nodules of pericardial mesothelioma. The latter has hitherto not been recognised following mediastinal radiation. The cardiac complications of mantle field radiotherapy are discussed

Annual and semiannual variations in the ionospheric F2-layer: I Modelling

Annual, seasonal and semiannual variations of F2-layer electron density (NmF2) and height (hmF2) have been compared with the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere computational model (CTIP), for geomagnetically quiet conditions. Compared with results from ionosonde data from midlatitudes, CTIP reproduces quite well many observed features of NmF2, such as the dominant winter maxima at high midlatitudes in longitude sectors near the magnetic poles, the equinox maxima in sectors remote from the magnetic poles and at lower latitudes generally, and the form of the month-to-month variations at latitudes between about 60°N and 50°S. CTIP also reproduces the seasonal behaviour of NmF2 at midnight and the summer-winter changes of hmF2. Some features of the F2-layer, not reproduced by the present version of CTIP, are attributed to processes not included in the modelling. Examples are the increased prevalence of the winter maxima of noon NmF2 at higher solar activity, which may be a consequence of the increase of F2-layer loss rate in summer by vibrationally excited molecular nitrogen, and the semiannual variation in hmF2, which may be due to tidal effects. An unexpected feature of the computed distributions of NmF2 is an east-west hemisphere difference, which seems to be linked to the geomagnetic field configuration. Physical discussion is reserved to the companion paper by Rishbeth et al

Annual and semiannual variations in the ionospheric F2-layer: II. Physical discussion

The companion paper by Zou et al. shows that the annual and semiannual variations in the peak F2-layer electron density (NmF2) at midlatitudes can be reproduced by a coupled thermosphere-ionosphere computational model (CTIP), without recourse to external influences such as the solar wind, or waves and tides originating in the lower atmosphere. The present work discusses the physics in greater detail. It shows that noon NmF2 is closely related to the ambient atomic/molecular concentration ratio, and suggests that the variations of NmF2 with geographic and magnetic longitude are largely due to the geometry of the auroral ovals. It also concludes that electric fields play no important part in the dynamics of the midlatitude thermosphere. Our modelling leads to the following picture of the global three-dimensional thermospheric circulation which, as envisaged by Duncan, is the key to explaining the F2-layer variations. At solstice, the almost continuous solar input at high summer latitudes drives a prevailing summer-to-winter wind, with upwelling at low latitudes and throughout most of the summer hemisphere, and a zone of downwelling in the winter hemisphere, just equatorward of the auroral oval. These motions affect thermospheric composition more than do the alternating day/night (up-and-down) motions at equinox. As a result, the thermosphere as a whole is more molecular at solstice than at equinox. Taken in conjunction with the well-known relation of F2-layer electron density to the atomic/molecular ratio in the neutral air, this explains the F2-layer semiannual effect in NmF2 that prevails at low and middle latitudes. At higher midlatitudes, the seasonal behaviour depends on the geographic latitude of the winter downwelling zone, though the effect of the composition changes is modified by the large solar zenith angle at midwinter. The zenith angle effect is especially important in longitudes far from the magnetic poles. Here, the downwelling occurs at high geographic latitudes, where the zenith angle effect becomes overwhelming and causes a midwinter depression of electron density, despite the enhanced atomic/molecular ratio. This leads to a semiannual variation of NmF2. A different situation exists in winter at longitudes near the magnetic poles, where the downwelling occurs at relatively low geographic latitudes so that solar radiation is strong enough to produce large values of NmF2. This circulation-driven mechanism provides a reasonably complete explanation of the observed pattern of F2 layer annual and semiannual quiet-day variations