ОПЫТ МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКОГО КОМПЬЮТЕРНОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ЭПИДЕМИЙ ГРИППА ДЛЯ БОЛЬШИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ

The conditions and the results of predicting epidemics of influenza in 1971-1985 years using a mathematical model of L.A. Rvachev and automated system developed at the Department of Epidemiology and General Cybernetics Institute of Influenza of the Ministry of Health of the USSR (head Yu. G. Ivannikov). It is shown that a forecast of daily epidemic influenza morbidity population of 100 cities in the country with a lead of up to 3 months was quite accurate both in terms of morbidity, and in time the peak of the epidemic. The causes of the difficulties inpredicting influenza epidemics in the end of 80s and 90s years, and gives recommendations for the resumption of the mathematical prediction of influenza epidemics in Russia at present.Рассмотрены условия и результаты прогнозирования эпидемий гриппа в 1971–1985 гг. с использованием математической модели Л.А. Рвачева и автоматизированной системы, разработанной в отделе общей эпидемиологии и кибернетики ВНИИ гриппа Министерства здравоохранения СССР (руководитель Ю.Г. Иванников). Показано, что прогноз эпидемической ежедневной заболеваемости гриппом населения 100 городов страны с упреждением до 3 месяцев оказался достаточно точным как по уровню заболеваемости, так и по времени наступления пика эпидемии. Проанализированы причины трудностей в прогнозировании эпидемий гриппа в конце 1980-х гг. и в 1990-е гг. и даны рекомендации для возобновления математического прогнозирования эпидемий гриппа для территории России в настоящее время

Scaling of THz-conductivity at metal-insulator transition in doped manganites

Magnetic field and temperature dependence of the Terahertz conductivity and permittivity of the colossal magnetoresistance manganite Pr_{0.65}Ca_{0.28}Sr_{0.07}MnO_3 (PCSMO) is investigated approaching the metal-to-insulator transition (MIT) from the insulating side. In the charge-ordered state of PCSMO both conductivity and dielectric permittivity increase as function of magnetic field and temperature. Universal scaling relationships between the changes in permittivity and conductivity are observed in a broad range of temperatures and magnetic fields. Similar scaling is also seen in La_{1-x}Sr_xMnO_3 for different doping levels. The observed proportionality points towards the importance of pure ac-conductivity and phononic energy scale at MIT in manganites.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

High-field AFMR in single-crystalline La_{0.95}Sr_{0.05}MnO_3: Experimental evidence for the existence of a canted magnetic structure

High-field antiferromagnetic-resonance (AFMR) spectra were obtained in the frequency range 60 GHz < \nu < 700 GHz and for magnetic fields up to 8 T in twin-free single crystals of La_{0.95}Sr_{0.05}MnO_3. At low temperatures two antiferromagnetic modes were detected, which reveal different excitation conditions and magnetic field dependencies. No splitting of these modes was observed for any orientation of the static magnetic field excluding the phase-separation scenario for this composition. Instead, the full data set including the anisotropic magnetization can be well described using a two-sublattice model of a canted antiferromagnetic structure.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

An Experience of mathematical computing Forecasting of the Influenza Epidemics for big Territory

The conditions and the results of predicting epidemics of influenza in 1971-1985 years using a mathematical model of L.A. Rvachev and automated system developed at the Department of Epidemiology and General Cybernetics Institute of Influenza of the Ministry of Health of the USSR (head Yu. G. Ivannikov). It is shown that a forecast of daily epidemic influenza morbidity population of 100 cities in the country with a lead of up to 3 months was quite accurate both in terms of morbidity, and in time the peak of the epidemic. The causes of the difficulties inpredicting influenza epidemics in the end of 80s and 90s years, and gives recommendations for the resumption of the mathematical prediction of influenza epidemics in Russia at present

Manufacturing and study of mechanical properties, structure and compatibility with biological objects of plates and wire from new Ti-25Nb-13Ta-5Zr alloy

A Ti-25Nb-13Ta-5Zr alloy was produced and studied in this work, and plates and wires were made from this alloy. It is shown that the Ti-25Nb-13Ta-5Zr alloy has the required mechanical properties and a beta-crystal phase. Microstructures were present on the surface of the alloy with a height of several hundred nm, located at a distance of 1.5-2 mu m from each other. Ti-25Nb-13Ta-5Zr was superior to nitinol in terms of the formation of long-living reactive protein species and the generation of reactive oxygen species. Cell cultivation on Ti-25Nb-13Ta-5Zr alloy surfaces revealed a significant mitotic index (2%) and a small number of nonviable cells (<5%). The cells were actively attached and spread over the alloy. The biocompatibility of Ti-25Nb-13Ta-5Zr was verified by experiments on the implantation of the alloy in the form of plates and coiled wires. The surface morphology of the specimens after biological trials was not significantly altered. The experimental data we obtained suggest that Ti-25Nb-13Ta-5Zr is suitable for potential applications in biology and medicine.Web of Science1012art. no. 158

The State of Specific Immunity to Measles and Rubella Virus in Newborns and their mothers

Objective: evaluate the passive specific immunity to measles and rubella in newborns and their mothers. Materials and metods: a study was made by the ELISA of the state of specific immunity to measles and rubella in 226 puerperas aged 15 to 44 without taking into account the vaccination status and their newborns in maternity hospitals in Moscow and Moscow Region. Results - the seropositive of measles proportion - 73.9 ± 2.9%, the rubella - 84.5 ± 2.4%. Comparison of the results of the study of immunity to rubella in puerperas and newborns with the results of previous years did not reveal any significant differences. The results of the examination of 226 newborns for the presence of antibodies to the rubella virus showed that the proportion of seropositive measles to the virus turned out to be 177 (78.3 ± 2.7%) children, rubella - 83.6 ± 2.4%, comparable to results of a survey of their mothers. Conclusion: high level of protection of the puerperas and their newborns from these infections. However, the organization and carrying out of vaccinations requires increased attention and control, since only high and timely coverage with vaccinations will prevent the increase in the incidence of infection when meeting with the pathogen of infection, including children of the first year of life