How are emergent constraints quantifying uncertainty and what do they leave behind?

The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for key policy relevant quantities such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recent years. Many researchers, however, claim that emergent constraints are inappropriate or even under-report uncertainty. In this paper we contribute to this discussion by examining the emergent constraints methodology in terms of its underpinning statistical assumptions. We argue that the existing frameworks are based on indefensible assumptions, then show how weakening them leads to a more transparent Bayesian framework wherein hitherto ignored sources of uncertainty, such as how reality might differ from models, can be quantified. We present a guided framework for the quantification of additional uncertainties that is linked to the confidence we can have in the underpinning physical arguments for using linear constraints. We provide a software tool for implementing our general framework for emergent constraints and use it to illustrate the framework on a number of recent emergent constraints for ECS. We find that the robustness of any constraint to additional uncertainties depends strongly on the confidence we can have in the underpinning physics, allowing a future framing of the debate over the validity of a particular constraint around the underlying physical arguments, rather than statistical assumptions

The impact of binary-star yields on the spectra of galaxies

One of the complexities in modelling integrated spectra of stellar populations is the effect of interacting binary stars besides Type Ia supernovae (SNeIa). These include common envelope systems, cataclysmic variables, novae, and are usually ignored in models predicting the chemistry and spectral absorption line strengths in galaxies. In this paper, predictions of chemical yields from populations of single and binary stars are incorporated into a galactic chemical evolution model to explore the significance of the effects of these other binary yields. Effects on spectral line strengths from different progenitor channels of SNeIa are also explored. Small systematic effects are found when the yields from binaries, other than SNeIa, are included, for a given star formation history. These effects are, at present, within the observational uncertainties on the line strengths. More serious differences can arise in considering different types of SNIa models, their rates and contributions

Is the subtropical jet shifting poleward?

The tropics are expanding poleward at about 0.5∘ per decade in observations. This poleward expansion of the circulation is consistently reported using Hadley cell edge metrics and lower-atmospheric tropical edge metrics. However, some upper-atmospheric tropical metrics report smaller trends that are often not significant. One such upper-atmospheric metric is the subtropical jet latitude, which has smaller trends compared to the Hadley cell edge. In this study we investigate the robustness of the weak trends in the subtropical jet position by introducing a new method for locating the subtropical jet, and examining the trends and variability of the subtropical jet latitude. We introduce the tropopause gradient method based on the peak gradient in potential temperature along the dynamic tropopause. Using this method we find the trends in the subtropical jet latitude are indeed much smaller than 0.5∘ per decade, consistent with previous studies. We also find that natural variability within the subtropical jet latitude would not prevent trends from being detected if they were similar to the Hadley cell edge, as trends greater than 0.24∘ per decade could reliably be detected using monthly data or 0.09∘ per decade using daily data. Despite the poleward expansion of the tropics, there is no robust evidence to suggest the subtropical jet is shifting poleward in either hemisphere. Neither the current diagnostic methods nor natural variability can account for the small subtropical jet trends. The most likely explanation, which requires further investigation, is that the subtropical jet position is not tied dynamically to the Hadley cell edge

A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figure

Chandra Observations of "The Antennae" Galaxies (NGC 4038/39)

We report the results of a deep Chandra ACIS pointing at the merging system NGC 4038/39. We detect an extraordinarily luminous population of X-ray sources, with luminosity well above that of XRBs in M31 and the Milky Way. If these sources are unbeamed XRBs, our observations may point to them being 10-100Mo black hole counterparts. We detect an X-ray bright hot ISM, with features including bright superbubbles associated with the actively star-forming knots, regions where hot and warm (H$\alpha$) ISM intermingle, and a large-scale outflow.Comment: 7 pages, 10 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap

Bimodality in low-luminosity E and S0 galaxies

Stellar population characteristics are presented for a sample of low-luminosity early-type galaxies (LLEs) in order to compare them with their more luminous counterparts. Long-slit spectra of a sample of 10 LLEs were taken with the ESO New Technology Telescope, selected for their low luminosities. Line strengths were measured on the Lick standard system. Lick indices for these LLEs were correlated with velocity dispersion (σ), alongside published data for a variety of Hubble types. The LLEs were found to fall below an extrapolation of the correlation for luminous ellipticals and were consistent with the locations of spiral bulges in plots of line strengths versus σ. Luminosity weighted average ages, metallicities and abundance ratios were estimated from χ2 fitting of 19 Lick indices to predictions from simple stellar population models. The LLEs appear younger than luminous ellipticals and of comparable ages to spiral bulges. These LLEs show a bimodal metallicity distribution, consisting of a low-metallicity group (possibly misclassified dwarf spheroidal galaxies) and a high-metallicity group (similar to spiral bulges). Finally, they have low α-element to iron peak abundance ratios indicative of slow, extended star formation