Precipitation–fire linkages in Indonesia (1997–2015)

Over the past decades, fires have burned annually in Indonesia, yet the strength of the fire season is for a large part modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The two most recent very strong El Niño years were 2015 and 1997. Both years involved high incidences of fire in Indonesia. At present, there is no consistent satellite data stream spanning the full 19-year record, thereby complicating a comparison between these two fire seasons. We have investigated how various fire and precipitation datasets can be merged to better compare the fire dynamics in 1997 and 2015 as well as in intermediary years. We combined nighttime active fire detections from the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) World Fire Atlas (WFA) available from 1997 until 2012 and the nighttime subset of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor from 2001 until now. For the overlapping period, MODIS detected about 4 times more fires than ATSR, but this ratio varied spatially. Although the reasons behind this spatial variability remain unclear, the coefficient of determination for the overlapping period was high (R2 = 0. 97, based on monthly data) and allowed for a consistent time series. We then constructed a rainfall time series based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997–2015) and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM, 1998–2015). Relations between antecedent rainfall and fire activity were not uniform in Indonesia. In southern Sumatra and Kalimantan, we found that 120 days of rainfall accumulation had the highest coefficient of determination with annual fire intensity. In northern Sumatra, this period was only 30 days. Thresholds of 200 and 305 mm average rainfall accumulation before each active fire were identified to generate a high-incidence fire year in southern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan, respectively. The number of active fires detected in 1997 was 2.2 times higher than in 2015. Assuming the ratio between nighttime and total active fires did not change, the 1997 season was thus about twice as severe as the one in 2015. Although large, the difference is smaller than found in fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Besides different rainfall amounts and patterns, the two-fold difference between 1997 and 2015 may be attributed to a weaker El Niño and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the later year. The fraction of fires burning in peatlands was higher in 2015 compared to 1997 (61 and 45 %, respectively). Finally, we found that the non-linearity between rainfall and fire in Indonesia stems from longer periods without rain in extremely dry years

Fire-Related Carbon Emissions from Land Use Transitions in Southern Amazonia

Various land-use transitions in the tropics contribute to atmospheric carbon emissions, including forest conversion for small-scale farming, cattle ranching, and production of commodities such as soya and palm oil. These transitions involve fire as an effective and inexpensive means for clearing. We applied the DECAF (DEforestation CArbon Fluxes) model to Mato Grosso, Brazil to estimate fire emissions from various land-use transitions during 2001-2005. Fires associated with deforestation contributed 67 Tg C/yr (17 and 50 Tg C/yr from conversion to cropland and pasture, respectively), while conversion of savannas and existing cattle pasture to cropland contributed 17 Tg C/yr and pasture maintenance fires 6 Tg C/yr. Large clearings (>100 ha/yr) contributed 67% of emissions but comprised only 10% of deforestation events. From a policy perspective, results imply that intensification of agricultural production on already-cleared land and policies to discourage large clearings would reduce the major sources of emissions from fires in this region. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union

New fire diurnal cycle characterizations to improve fire radiative energy assessments made from low-Earth orbit satellites sampling

Accurate near real time fire emissions estimates are required for air quality forecasts. To date, most approaches are based on satellite-derived estimates of fire radiative power (FRP), which can be converted to fire radiative energy (FRE) which is directly related to fire emissions. Uncertainties in these FRE estimations are often substantial. This is for a large part because the most often used low-Earth orbit satellite-based instruments like the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) have a relatively poor sampling of the usually pronounced fire diurnal cycle. In this paper we explore the spatial variation of this fire diurnal cycle and its drivers. Specifically, we assess how representing the fire diurnal cycle affects FRP and FRE estimations when using data collected at MODIS overpasses. Using data assimilation we explored three different methods to estimate hourly FRE, based on an incremental sophistication of parameterizing the fire diurnal cycle. We sampled data from the geostationary Meteosat Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) at MODIS detection opportunities to drive the three approaches. The full SEVIRI time-series, providing full coverage of the diurnal cycle, were used to evaluate the results. Our study period comprised three years (2010–2012), and we focussed on Africa and the Mediterranean basin to avoid the use of potentially lower quality SEVIRI data obtained at very far off-nadir view angles. We found that the fire diurnal cycle varies substantially over the study region, and depends on both fuel and weather conditions. For example, more "intense" fires characterized by a fire diurnal cycle with high peak fire activity, long duration over the day, and with nighttime fire activity are most common in areas of large fire size (i.e., large burned area per fire event). These areas are most prevalent in relatively arid regions. Ignoring the fire diurnal cycle as done currently in some approaches caused structural errors, while generally overestimating FRE. Including information on the climatology of the fire diurnal cycle provided the most promising avenue to improve FRE estimations. This approach also improved the performance on relatively high spatiotemporal resolutions, although only when aggregating model results to coarser spatial and/or temporal scale good correlation was found with the full SEVIRI hourly reference dataset. In general model performance was best in areas of frequent fire and low errors of omission. We recommend the use of regionally varying fire diurnal cycle information within the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) used in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services, which will improve FRE estimates and may allow for further reconciliation of biomass burning emission estimates from different inventories

Physical Conditions in Orion's Veil

Orion's veil consists of several layers of largely neutral gas lying between us and the main ionizing stars of the Orion nebula. It is visible in 21cm H I absorption and in optical and UV absorption lines of H I and other species. Toward the Trapezium, the veil has two remarkable properties, high magnetic field (~100 microGauss) and a surprising lack of molecular hydrogen given its total hydrogen column density. Here we compute photoionization models of the veil to establish its gas density and its distance from the Trapezium. We use a greatly improved model of the hydrogen molecule that determines level populations in ~1e5 rotational/vibrational levels and provides improved estimates of molecular hydrogen destruction via the Lyman-Werner bands. Our best fit photoionization models place the veil 1-3 pc in front of the star at a density of 1e3-1e4 cubic centimeters. Magnetic energy dominates the energy of non-thermal motions in at least one of the 21cm H I velocity components. Therefore, the veil is the first interstellar environment where magnetic dominance appears to exist. We find that the low ratio of molecular to atomic hydrogen (< 1e-4) is a consequence of high UV flux incident upon the veil due to its proximity to the Trapezium stars and the absence of small grains in the region.Comment: 45 pages, 20 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Unfolding-Based Process Discovery

This paper presents a novel technique for process discovery. In contrast to the current trend, which only considers an event log for discovering a process model, we assume two additional inputs: an independence relation on the set of logged activities, and a collection of negative traces. After deriving an intermediate net unfolding from them, we perform a controlled folding giving rise to a Petri net which contains both the input log and all independence-equivalent traces arising from it. Remarkably, the derived Petri net cannot execute any trace from the negative collection. The entire chain of transformations is fully automated. A tool has been developed and experimental results are provided that witness the significance of the contribution of this paper.Comment: This is the unabridged version of a paper with the same title appearead at the proceedings of ATVA 201

Physical Conditoins in Orion's Veil II: A Multi-Component Study of the Line of Sight Toward the Trapezium

Orion's Veil is an absorbing screen that lies along the line of sight to the Orion H II region. It consists of two or more layers of gas that must lie within a few parsecs of the Trapezium cluster. Our previous work considered the Veil as a whole and found that the magnetic field dominates the energetics of the gas in at least one component. Here we use high-resolution STIS UV spectra that resolve the two velocity components in absorption and determine the conditions in each. We derive a volume hydrogen density, 21 cm spin temperature, turbulent velocity, and kinetic temperature, for each. We combine these estimates with magnetic field measurements to find that magnetic energy significantly dominates turbulent and thermal energies in one component, while the other component is close to equipartition between turbulent and magnetic energies. We observe molecular hydrogen absorption for highly excited v, J levels that are photoexcited by the stellar continuum, and detect blueshifted S III and P III. These ions must arise from ionized gas between the mostly neutral portions of the Veil and the Trapezium and shields the Veil from ionizing radiation. We find that this layer of ionized gas is also responsible for He I absorption in the Veil, which resolves a 40-year-old debate on the origin of He I absorption towards the Trapezium. Finally, we determine that the ionized and mostly atomic layers of the Veil will collide in less than 85,000 years.Comment: 43 pages, 15 figures, to be published in Ap

Continental-Scale Partitioning of Fire Emissions During the 1997 to 2001 El Niño/La Niña Period

During the 1997 to 1998 El Niño, drought conditions triggered widespread increases in fire activity, releasing CH_4 and CO_2 to the atmosphere. We evaluated the contribution of fires from different continents to variability in these greenhouse gases from 1997 to 2001, using satellite-based estimates of fire activity, biogeochemical modeling, and an inverse analysis of atmospheric CO anomalies. During the 1997 to 1998 El Niño, the fire emissions anomaly was 2.1 ± 0.8 petagrams of carbon, or 66 ± 24% of the CO_2 growth rate anomaly. The main contributors were Southeast Asia (60%), Central and South America (30%), and boreal regions of Eurasia and North America (10%)

Global burned area and biomass burning emissions from small fires

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001–2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia—regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes

Dust in 3C324

The results of a deep submillimetre observation using SCUBA of the powerful radio galaxy 3C324, at redshift z=1.206, are presented. At 850 microns, emission from the location of the host radio galaxy is marginally detected at the 4.2 sigma level, 3.01 +/- 0.72 mJy, but there is no detection of emission at 450 microns to a 3 sigma limit of 21 mJy. A new 32 GHz radio observation using the Effelsberg 100m telescope confirms that the sub-millimetre signal is not associated with synchrotron emission. These observations indicate that both the mass of warm dust within 3C324, and the star formation rate, lie up to an order of magnitude below the values recently determined for radio galaxies at z = 3 to 4. The results are compared with dust masses and star formation rates derived in other ways for 3C324.Comment: 5 pages LaTeX, including 1 figure. Accepted for publication in MNRA

HI Narrow Line Absorption in Dark Clouds

We have used the Arecibo telescope to carry out an survey of 31 dark clouds in the Taurus/Perseus region for narrow absorption features in HI ($\lambda$ 21cm) and OH (1667 and 1665 MHz) emission. We detected HI narrow self--absorption (HINSA) in 77% of the clouds that we observed. HINSA and OH emission, observed simultaneously are remarkably well correlated. Spectrally, they have the same nonthermal line width and the same line centroid velocity. Spatially, they both peak at the optically--selected central position of each cloud, and both fall off toward the cloud edges. Sources with clear HINSA feature have also been observed in transitions of CO, \13co, \c18o, and CI. HINSA exhibits better correlation with molecular tracers than with CI. The line width of the absorption feature, together with analyses of the relevant radiative transfer provide upper limits to the kinetic temperature of the gas producing the HINSA. Some sources must have a temperature close to or lower than 10 K. The correlation of column densities and line widths of HINSA with those characteristics of molecular tracers suggest that a significant fraction of the atomic hydrogen is located in the cold, well--shielded portions of molecular clouds, and is mixed with the molecular gas. The average number density ratio [HI]/[\h2] is $1.5\times10^{-3}$. The inferred HI density appears consistent with but is slightly higher than the value expected in steady state equilibrium between formation of HI via cosmic ray destruction of H$_2$ and destruction via formation of H$_2$ on grain surfaces. The distribution and abundance of atomic hydrogen in molecular clouds is a critical test of dark cloud chemistry and structure, including the issues of grain surface reaction rates, PDRs, circulation, and turbulent diffusion.Comment: 40 pages, 10 figures, accepted by Ap