Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework

One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement settled on a maturity date. Our purpose is to design a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for an additive, mean-reverting, multicommodity market consisting of forward contracts of any delivery period. The main assumption is that forward prices can be represented as affine functions of a universal source of randomness. This allows us to completely characterize the models which prevent arbitrage opportunities: this boils down to finding a density between a risk-neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$, such that the prices of traded assets like forward contracts are true $\mathbb{Q}$-martingales, and the real world probability measure $\mathbb{P}$, under which forward prices are mean-reverting. The Girsanov kernel for such a transformation turns out to be stochastic and unbounded in the diffusion part, while in the jump part the Girsanov kernel must be deterministic and bounded: thus, in this respect, we prove two results on the martingale property of stochastic exponentials. The first allows to validate measure changes made of two components: an Esscher-type density and a Girsanov transform with stochastic and unbounded kernel. The second uses a different approach and works for the case of continuous density. We apply this framework to two models: a generalized Lucia-Schwartz model and a cross-commodity cointegrated market.Comment: 28 page

Renal papillary carcinoma developed in a kidney transplant recipient with late IgA-nephropathy

With improvements in immunosuppressive therapy, patient and graft survival in renal transplant recipients have been prolonged. Increasing donor age and patient survival rates have been related to an increase in the number of de novo tumors. Posttransplant malignancy in these patients is an important cause of graft loss and death in these patients. Among cancers occurring after a kidney transplant, renal cell carcinoma is the fifth most common malignancy after lymphoproliferative disorders, and skin, gastrointestinal, and lung cancers. When nonmelanoma skin cancers and in situ carcinoma of the cervix are excluded from malignancies, renal cell carcinoma accounts for 2% of all cancers in the general population, which increases to 5% in solid-organ recipients. The majority of renal cell carcinomas found in transplant recipients develop in the recipient 's native kidneys, but only 9% of tumors develop in the allograft itself. Tumors transmitted by donors represent only 0.02% to 0.2% of cases. Most de novo allograft renal cell carcinomas are single tumors. The mechanisms of development of renal cell carcinoma in renal grafts are not completely understood

Polyethylene Glycol Epirubicin-Loaded Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization Procedures Utilizing a Combined Approach with 100 and 200 μm Microspheres: A Promising Alternative to Current Standards

PURPOSE:To report clinical effectiveness, toxicity profile, and prognostic factors of combined 100 μm ± 25 and 200 μm ± 50 epirubicin-loaded polyethylene glycol (PEG) microsphere drug-eluting embolic transcatheter arterial chemoembolization protocol in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this prospective, single-center, single-arm study with 18 months of follow-up, 36 consecutive patients (mean age 69.9 y ± 10.8; 26 men, 10 women; 54 naïve lesions) were treated. Embolization was initiated with 100 μm ± 25 microspheres, and if stasis (10 heart beats) was not achieved, 200 μm ± 50 microspheres were administered. Each syringe (2 mL) of PEG microsphere was loaded with 50 mg of epirubicin. Results were evaluated using Modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors with multidetector computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging at 1, 3-6, 9-12, and 15-18 months. Toxicity profile was assessed by laboratory testing before and after the procedure. Complications were recorded. Postembolization syndrome (PES) was defined as onset of fever/nausea/pain after the procedure. Patient/lesion characteristics and treatment results were correlated with predicted outcome using regression analysis. Child-Pugh score was A in 86.1% of patients (31/36) and B in 13.9% (5/36). RESULTS: In 10 of 21 lesions, < 2 cm in diameter (47.5%) stasis was achieved with 100 μm ± 25 microspheres only, whereas all other lesions required adjunctive treatment with 200 μm ± 50 microspheres. Reported adverse events were grade 1 acute liver bile duct injury (3/39 cases, 7.7%) and PES (grade 2; 3/39 cases, 7.7%). Complete response (CR) at 1, 3-6, 9-12, and 15-18 months was 61.1%, 65.5%, 63.63%, and 62.5%. Objective response (CR + partial response) at 1, 3-6, 9-12, and 15-18 months was 83.3%, 65.85%, 63.63%, and 62.5%. No single factor (laboratory testing, etiology, patient status, hepatic status, tumor characteristics, administration protocol) predicted outcomes except for albumin level at baseline for CR (P < .05, odds ratio = 1.09). CONCLUSIONS: The combined microsphere sizing strategy was technically feasible and yielded promising results in terms of effectiveness and toxicity

Economic burden of HPV9-related diseases : a real world cost analysis from Italy

The objectives of this study were to estimate the economic burden of HPV in Italy, accounting for total direct medical costs associated with nine major HPV-related diseases, and to provide a measure of the burden attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, 58 infections

Economic aspects in the management of diabetes in Italy

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic- degenerative disease associated with a high risk of chronic complications and comorbidities. The aim of this study is to estimate the average annual cost incurred by the Italian National Health Service (NHS) for the treatment of DM stratified by patients’ comorbidities. Moreover, the model estimates the economic impact of implementing good clinical practice for the management of patients with DM. Methods: Data were extrapolated from administrative database of the Marche Region and specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were developed from a clinical board in order to estimate patients with DM only, DM+1, DM+2, DM+3 and DM+4 comorbidities (cardiovascular disease, neuropathy, nephropathy and retinopathy). Regional data were considered a good proxy for implementing a previously developed cost-of- illness (COI) model from Italian NHS perspective already published. A scenario analysis was considered to estimate the economic impact of good clinical practice implementation in the treatment of DM and its comorbidities in Italy. Results: The model estimated an average number of patients with DM per year in the Marche region of 85.909 (5.5% of population) from 2008 to 2011. The mean costs per patients with DM only, DM+1, DM+2, DM+3 and DM+4 comorbidities were €341, €1,335, €2,287, €5,231 and €7,085 respectively. From the Italian NHS perspective, the total economic burden of DM in Italy amounted to €8.1. billion/year (22% for drugs, 74% for hospitalization and 4% for visits). Scenario analysis demonstrates that the implementation of good clinical practice could save over €700 million per year. Conclusions: This model is the first study that considers real world data and COI model to estimate the economic burden of DM and its comorbidities from the Italian NHS perspective. Integrated management of the patients with DM could be a good driver for the reduction of the costs of this disease in Italy

Food protein-induced allergic proctocolitis in infants. Literature review and proposal of a management protocol

Food protein-induced allergic proctocolitis (FPIAP) is a condition characterized by inflammatory changes in the distal colon in response to one or more foreign food proteins because of immune-mediated reactions. FPIAP prevalence estimates range widely from 0.16% in healthy children and 64% in patients with blood in stools. In clinical practice, FPIAP is diagnosed when patients respond positively to the elimination of a suspected triggering food allergen. Nevertheless, significant proportions of infants get misdiagnosed with IgE mediated allergy and undergo unnecessary dietary changes. Diagnosis is based on clinical symptoms, a good response to an allergen-free diet and the recurrence of symptoms during the “allergy challenge test”. Sometimes clinical features may be non-specific and the etiology of rectal bleeding in childhood may be heterogeneous. Therefore, it is crucial to exclude a variety of other possible causes of rectal bleeding in the pediatric age group, including infection, anal fissure, intestinal intussusception and, in infants, necrotizing enterocolitis and very early onset inflammatory bowel disease. The diagnostic workup includes in those cases invasive procedures such as sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy with biopsies. The high prevalence of FPIAP contrasts with the lack of known information about the pathogenesis of this condition. For this reason and due to the absence of a review of the evidence, a literature review appears necessary to clarify some aspects of allergic colitis. The aim of the review is to fill this gap and to lay the foundations for a subsequent evidence-based approach to the condition