Managing wind power generation via indexed semi-markov model and copula

Because of the stochastic nature of wind turbines, the output power management of wind power generation (WPG) is a fundamental challenge for the integration of wind energy systems into either power systems or microgrids (i.e., isolated systems consisting of local wind energy systems only) in operation and planning studies. In general, a wind energy system can refer to both one wind farm consisting of a number of wind turbines and a given number of wind farms sited at the area in question. In power systems (microgrid) planning, a WPG should be quantified for the determination of the expected power flows and the analysis of the adequacy of power generation. Concerning this operation, the WPG should be incorporated into an optimal operation decision process, as well as unit commitment and economic dispatch studies. In both cases, the probabilistic investigation of WPG leads to a multivariate uncertainty analysis problem involving correlated random variables (the output power of either wind turbines that constitute wind farm or wind farms sited at the area in question) that follow different distributions. This paper advances a multivariate model of WPG for a wind farm that relies on indexed semi-Markov chains (ISMC) to represent the output power of each wind energy system in question and a copula function to reproduce the spatial dependencies of the energy systems’ output power. The ISMC model can reproduce long-term memory effects in the temporal dependence of turbine power and thus understand, as distinct cases, the plethora of Markovian models. Using copula theory, we incorporate non-linear spatial dependencies into the model that go beyond linear correlations. Some copula functions that are frequently used in applications are taken into consideration in the paper; i.e., Gumbel copula, Gaussian copula, and the t-Student copula with different degrees of freedom. As a case study, we analyze a real dataset of the output powers of six wind turbines that constitute a wind farm situated in Poland. This dataset is compared with the synthetic data generated by the model thorough the calculation of three adequacy indices commonly used at the first hierarchical level of power system reliability studies; i.e., loss of load probability (LOLP), loss of load hours (LOLH) and loss of load expectation (LOLE). The results will be compared with those obtained using other models that are well known in the econometric field; i.e., vector autoregressive models (VAR)

A multivariate high-order markov model for the income estimation of a wind farm

The energy produced by a wind farm in a given location and its associated income depends both on the wind characteristics in that location—i.e., speed and direction—and the dynamics of the electricity spot price. Because of the evidence of cross-correlations between wind speed, direction and price series and their lagged series, we aim to assess the income of a hypothetical wind farm located in central Italy when all interactions are considered. To model these cross and auto-correlations efficiently, we apply a high-order multivariate Markov model which includes dependencies from each time series and from a certain level of past values. Besides this, we used the Raftery Mixture Transition Distribution model (MTD) to reduce the number of parameters to get a more parsimonious model. Using data from the MERRA-2 project and from the electricity market in Italy, we estimate the model parameters and validate them through a Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that the simulated income faithfully reproduces the empirical income and that the multivariate model also closely reproduces the cross-correlations between the variables. Therefore, the model can be used to predict the income generated by a wind farm

GPCALMA: a Grid Approach to Mammographic Screening

The next generation of High Energy Physics experiments requires a GRID approach to a distributed computing system and the associated data management: the key concept is the "Virtual Organisation" (VO), a group of geographycally distributed users with a common goal and the will to share their resources. A similar approach is being applied to a group of Hospitals which joined the GPCALMA project (Grid Platform for Computer Assisted Library for MAmmography), which will allow common screening programs for early diagnosis of breast and, in the future, lung cancer. HEP techniques come into play in writing the application code, which makes use of neural networks for the image analysis and shows performances similar to radiologists in the diagnosis. GRID technologies will allow remote image analysis and interactive online diagnosis, with a relevant reduction of the delays presently associated to screening programs.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures; to appear in the Proceedings of Frontier Detectors For Frontier Physics, 9th Pisa Meeting on Advanced Detectors, 25-31 May 2003, La Biodola, Isola d'Elba, Ital

Gustatory Sensitivity and Food Acceptance in Two Phylogenetically Closely Related Papilionid Species: Papilio hospiton and Papilio machaon.

In herbivorous insects, food selection depends on sensitivity to specific chemical stimuli from host-plants as well as to secondary metabolites (bitter) and to sugars (phagostimulatory). Bitter compounds are noxious, unpalatable or both and evoke an aversive feeding response. Instead, sugars and sugar alcohols play a critical role in determining and enhancing the palatability of foods. We assumed that peripheral taste sensitivity may be related to the width of the host selection. Our model consists of two closely phylogenetically related Papilionid species exhibiting a difference in host plant choice: Papilio hospiton and Papilio machaon. The spike activity of the lateral and medial maxillary styloconic taste sensilla was recorded following stimulation with several carbohydrates, nicotine and NaCl, with the aim of characterizing their gustatory receptor neurons and of comparing their response patterns in the light of their different acceptability in feeding behaviour. The results show that: a) each sensillum houses phagostimulant and phagodeterrent cells; b) the spike activity of the gustatory neurons in response to different taste stimuli is higher in P. hospiton than in P. machaon; c) sugar solutions inhibit the spike activity of the deterrent and salt cells, and the suppression is higher in P. machaon than in P. hospiton. In conclusion, we propose that the different balance between the phagostimulant and phagodeterrent inputs from GRNs of maxillary sensilla may contribute in determining the difference in food choice and host range

Automated detection of lung nodules in low-dose computed tomography

A computer-aided detection (CAD) system for the identification of pulmonary nodules in low-dose multi-detector computed-tomography (CT) images has been developed in the framework of the MAGIC-5 Italian project. One of the main goals of this project is to build a distributed database of lung CT scans in order to enable automated image analysis through a data and cpu GRID infrastructure. The basic modules of our lung-CAD system, consisting in a 3D dot-enhancement filter for nodule detection and a neural classifier for false-positive finding reduction, are described. The system was designed and tested for both internal and sub-pleural nodules. The database used in this study consists of 17 low-dose CT scans reconstructed with thin slice thickness (~300 slices/scan). The preliminary results are shown in terms of the FROC analysis reporting a good sensitivity (85% range) for both internal and sub-pleural nodules at an acceptable level of false positive findings (1-9 FP/scan); the sensitivity value remains very high (75% range) even at 1-6 FP/scanComment: 4 pages, 2 figures: Proceedings of the Computer Assisted Radiology and Surgery, 21th International Congress and Exhibition, Berlin, Volume 2, Supplement 1, June 2007, pp 357-35