First passage time distribution for a random walker on a random forcing energy landscape

We present an analytical approximation scheme for the first passage time distribution on a finite interval of a random walker on a random forcing energy landscape. The approximation scheme captures the behavior of the distribution over all timescales in the problem. The results are carefully checked against numerical simulations.Comment: 16 page

Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355 mW m[superscript −2] in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to “no HFC policy” projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240 mW m[superscript −2] by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8 years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (Advanced Research Fellowship NE/I021365/1)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Upper Atmospheric Research Program Grant NNX11AF17G)United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administratio

Characterization of uncertainties in atmospheric trace gas inversions using hierarchical Bayesian methods

We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for atmospheric trace gas inversions. This method is used to estimate emissions of trace gases as well as "hyper-parameters" that characterize the probability density functions (PDFs) of the a priori emissions and model-measurement covariances. By exploring the space of "uncertainties in uncertainties", we show that the hierarchical method results in a more complete estimation of emissions and their uncertainties than traditional Bayesian inversions, which rely heavily on expert judgment. We present an analysis that shows the effect of including hyper-parameters, which are themselves informed by the data, and show that this method can serve to reduce the effect of errors in assumptions made about the a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties. We then apply this method to the estimation of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) emissions over 2012 for the regions surrounding four Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) stations. We find that improper accounting of model representation uncertainties, in particular, can lead to the derivation of emissions and associated uncertainties that are unrealistic and show that those derived using the hierarchical method are likely to be more representative of the true uncertainties in the system. We demonstrate through this SF6 case study that this method is less sensitive to outliers in the data and to subjective assumptions about a priori emissions and model-measurement uncertainties than traditional methods

Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely due to an increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, as has been suggested by previous studies.</p

Stimulus affective valence reverses spatial compatibility effect

In spatial compatibility tasks, the Reaction Time to right-side stimuli is shorter for right key responses (compatible condition) than for left key responses (incompatible condition) and vice-versa for left-side stimuli. Similar results have been found when the stimulus location is not relevant for response selection, such as in the Simon task. The Simon effect is the difference between the reaction times for non-corresponding and corresponding conditions. The Simon effect and its variants may be modulated by using emotional stimuli. However, until now, no work has studied how the affective valence of a stimulus influences spatial compatibility effects along the horizontal dimension. The present study investigated this issue by using small lateralized figures of soccer team players as stimuli. In the experiment, a compatible or incompatible response was chosen according to the team shirt. In one block, for the Favorite team, the volunteers had to press the key on the same side as the stimulus hemifield but the opposite-side key for the Rival team. In the other block, a reverse code had to be used. Fourteen right-handed volunteers were tested. Mean reaction times were subjected to analysis of variance with the following variables: Preference (Favorite/Rival), Hemifield (Left/Right), and Response Key (Left/Right). A three-way interaction was found (F1,13 = 6.60, p = .023), showing that the spatial compatibility effects depended on Preference. The Favorite team player elicited the usual spatial compatibility pattern, but for the Rival team player, the reverse effect was found, with incompatible responses being faster than compatible responses. We propose that this modulation may result from approach/avoidance reactions to the Favorite and Rival teams, respectively. Moreover, we suggest as a corollary that the classic spatial compatibility task is a powerful tool for investigating approach/avoidance effects.Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES)CNPq(FAPERJ) Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de JaneiroCNPq - PIBIC-UFFUFF - PROP

Mixed configuration-interaction and many-body perturbation theory calculations of energies and oscillator strengths of J=1 odd states of neon

Ab-initio theory is developed for energies of J=1 particle-hole states of neutral neon and for oscillator strengths of transitions from such states to the J=0 ground state. Hole energies of low-Z neonlike ions are evaluated.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, 4 table