Tracing the Mass-Assembly History of Galaxies with Deep Surveys

We use the optical and near-infrared galaxy samples from the Munich Near-Infrared Cluster Survey (MUNICS), the FORS Deep Field (FDF) and GOODS-S to probe the stellar mass assembly history of field galaxies out to z ~ 5. Combining information on the galaxies' stellar mass with their star-formation rate and the age of the stellar population, we can draw important conclusions on the assembly of the most massive galaxies in the universe: These objects contain the oldest stellar populations at all redshifts probed. Furthermore, we show that with increasing redshift the contribution of star-formation to the mass assembly for massive galaxies increases dramatically, reaching the era of their formation at z ~ 2 and beyond. These findings can be interpreted as evidence for an early epoch of star formation in the most massive galaxies in the universe.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figures; published in B. Aschenbach, V. Burwitz, G. Hasinger, B. Leibundgut (eds.): "Relativistic Astrophysics and Cosmology - Einstein's Legacy. Proceedings of the Conference held in Munich, 2006", ESO Astrophysics Symposia, Springer Verlag, 2007, p. 310. Replaced to match final published versio

The Smithsonian solar constant data revisited: No evidence for a strong effect of solar activity in ground-based insolation data

Apparent evidence for a strong signature of solar activity in ground-based insolation data was recently reported. In particular, a strong increase of the irradiance of the direct solar beam with sunspot number as well as a decline of the brightness of the solar aureole and the measured precipitable water content of the atmosphere with solar activity were presented. The latter effect was interpreted as evidence for cosmic-ray-induced aerosol formation. Here I show that these spurious results are due to a failure to correct for seasonal variations and the effects of volcanic eruptions and local pollution in the data. After correcting for these biases, neither the atmospheric water content nor the brightness of the solar aureole show any significant change with solar activity, and the variations of the solar-beam irradiance with sunspot number are in agreement with previous estimates. Hence there is no evidence for the influence of solar activity on the climate being stronger than currently thought

A volcanically triggered regime shift in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean as a possible origin of the Little Ice Age

Among the climatological events of the last millennium, the Northern Hemisphere Medieval Climate Anomaly succeeded by the Little Ice Age are of exceptional importance. The origin of these regional climate anomalies remains a subject of debate and besides external influences like solar and volcanic activity, internal dynamics of the climate system might have also played a dominant role. Here, we present transient last millennium simulations of the fully coupled model of intermediate complexity Climber 3α forced with stochastically reconstructed wind-stress fields. Our results indicate that short-lived volcanic eruptions might have triggered a cascade of sea ice–ocean feedbacks in the North Atlantic, ultimately leading to a persistent regime shift in the ocean circulation. We find that an increase in the Nordic Sea sea-ice extent on decadal timescales as a consequence of major volcanic eruptions in our model leads to a spin-up of the subpolar gyre and a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, eventually causing a persistent, basin-wide cooling. These results highlight the importance of regional climate feedbacks such as a regime shift in the subpolar gyre circulation for understanding the dynamics of past and future climate

The Munich Near-Infrared Cluster Survey -- IV. Biases in the Completeness of Near-Infrared Imaging Data

We present the results of completeness simulations for the detection of point sources as well as redshifted elliptical and spiral galaxies in the K'-band images of the Munich Near-Infrared Cluster Survey (MUNICS). The main focus of this work is to quantify the selection effects introduced by threshold-based object detection algorithms used in deep imaging surveys. Therefore, we simulate objects obeying the well-known scaling relations between effective radius and central surface brightness, both for de Vaucouleurs and exponential profiles. The results of these simulations, while presented for the MUNICS project, are applicable in a much wider context to deep optical and near-infrared selected samples. We investigate the detection probability as well as the reliability for recovering the true total magnitude with Kron-like (adaptive) aperture photometry. The results are compared to the predictions of the visibility theory of Disney and Phillipps in terms of the detection rate and the lost-light fraction. Additionally, the effects attributable to seeing are explored. The results show a bias against detecting high-redshifted massive elliptical galaxies in comparison to disk galaxies with exponential profiles, and that the measurements of the total magnitudes for intrinsically bright elliptical galaxies are systematically too faint. Disk galaxies, in contrast, show no significant offset in the magnitude measurement of luminous objects. Finally we present an analytic formula to predict the completeness of point-sources using only basic image parameters.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

On the Relation between Solar Activity and Clear-Sky Terrestrial Irradiance

The Mauna Loa Observatory record of direct-beam solar irradiance measurements for the years 1958-2010 is analysed to investigate the variation of clear-sky terrestrial insolation with solar activity over more than four solar cycles. The raw irradiance data exhibit a marked seasonal cycle, extended periods of lower irradiance due to emissions of volcanic aerosols, and a long-term decrease in atmospheric transmission independent of solar activity. After correcting for these effects, it is found that clear-sky terrestrial irradiance typically varies by about 0.2 +/- 0.1% over the course of the solar cycle, a change of the same order of magnitude as the variations of the total solar irradiance above the atmosphere. An investigation of changes in the clear-sky atmospheric transmission fails to find a significant trend with sunspot number. Hence there is no evidence for a yet unknown effect amplifying variations of clear-sky irradiance with solar activity.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, in press at Solar Physics; minor changes to the text to match final published versio

Asymmetry and uncertainties in biogeophysical climate-vegetation feedback over a range of CO2 forcings

Climate–vegetation feedback has the potential to significantly contribute to climate change, but little is known about its range of uncertainties. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we address possible uncertainties in the strength of the biogeophysical climate–vegetation feedback using a single-model multi-physics ensemble. Equilibrium experiments with halving (140 ppm) and doubling (560 ppm) of CO2 give a contribution of the vegetation–climate feedback to global temperature change in the range −0.3 to −0.1 °C and −0.1 to 0.2 °C, respectively. There is an asymmetry between warming and cooling, with a larger, positive vegetation–climate feedback in the lower CO2 climate. Hotspots of climate–vegetation feedback are the boreal zone, the Amazon rainforest and the Sahara. Albedo parameterization is the dominant source of uncertainty in the subtropics and at high northern latitudes, while uncertainties in evapotranspiration are more relevant in the tropics. We analyse the separate impact of changes in stomatal conductance, leaf area index and vegetation dynamics on climate and we find that different processes are dominant in lower and higher CO2 worlds. The reduction in stomatal conductance gives the main contribution to temperature increase for a doubling of CO2, while dynamic vegetation is the dominant process in the CO2 halving experiments. Globally the climate–vegetation feedback is rather small compared to the sum of the fast climate feedbacks. However, it is comparable to the amplitude of the fast feedbacks at high northern latitudes where it can contribute considerably to polar amplification. The uncertainties in the climate–vegetation feedback are comparable to the multi-model spread of the fast climate feedbacks

Reply to Comment on ‘On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming’

In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on 'established evidence' that was only true for preindustrial conditions—this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947–2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated

The stellar mass function of galaxies to z ~ 5 in the Fors Deep and GOODS-S fields

We present a measurement of the evolution of the stellar mass function (MF) of galaxies and the evolution of the total stellar mass density at 0<z<5. We use deep multicolor data in the Fors Deep Field (FDF; I-selected reaching I_AB=26.8) and the GOODS-S/CDFS region (K-selected reaching K_AB=25.4) to estimate stellar masses based on fits to composite stellar population models for 5557 and 3367 sources, respectively. The MF of objects from the GOODS-S sample is very similar to that of the FDF. Near-IR selected surveys hence detect the more massive objects of the same principal population as do I-selected surveys. We find that the most massive galaxies harbor the oldest stellar populations at all redshifts. At low z, our MF follows the local MF very well, extending the local MF down to 10^8 Msun. The faint end slope is consistent with the local value of alpha~1.1 at least up to z~1.5. Our MF also agrees very well with the MUNICS and K20 results at z<2. The MF seems to evolve in a regular way at least up to z~2 with the normalization decreasing by 50% to z=1 and by 70% to z=2. Objects having M>10^10 Msun which are the likely progenitors of todays L* galaxies are found in much smaller numbers above z=2. However, we note that massive galaxies with M>10^11 Msun are present even to the largest redshift we probe. Beyond z=2 the evolution of the mass function becomes more rapid. We find that the total stellar mass density at z=1 is 50% of the local value. At z=2, 25% of the local mass density is assembled, and at z=3 and z=5 we find that at least 15% and 5% of the mass in stars is in place, respectively. The number density of galaxies with M>10^11 Msun evolves very similarly to the evolution at lower masses. It decreases by 0.4 dex to z=1, by 0.6 dex to z=2, and by 1 dex to z=4.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ