793 research outputs found

    Water Use Estimation and Forecasting for the Kentucky River Basin: A Preliminary Draft Report

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    We estimate aggregate monthly water use for summer, peak demand and nonsummer off-peak demand periods for the Kentucky River Basin. Using Kentucky Division of Water use data, U.S. Census data for county demographic and economic conditions, and U.S. Weather Service data for weather conditions we estimate use for the 1970-1993 period. Our model allows for idiosyncratic effects of each of the 27 counties in the sample. We find factors such as population and manufacturing employment effect use and temperature and rainfall in current and preceding months effect use during the summer, peak period. The model predicts well within the sample period Population forecasts. both moderate and high growth series, from the Kentucky Data Center are used along with the manufacturing employment forecasts for water use forecasts. Water use forecasts are made for years out to 2020 under 1930 drought conditions for comparison with water supply estimates. The use estimates are made assuming pricing and other demand management policies remain constant

    Diffraction and boundary conditions in semi-classical open billiards

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    The conductance through open quantum dots or quantum billiards shows fluctuations, that can be explained as interference between waves following different paths between the leads of the billiard. We examine such systems by the use of a semi-classical Green's functions. In this paper we examine how the choice of boundary conditions at the lead mouths affect the diffraction. We derive a new formula for the S-matrix element. Finally we compare semi-classical simulations to quantum mechanical ones, and show that this new formula yield superior results.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

    Improved microscopic-macroscopic approach incorporating the effects of continuum states

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    The Woods-Saxon-Strutinsky method (the microscopic-macroscopic method) combined with Kruppa's prescription for positive energy levels, which is necessary to treat neutron rich nuclei, is studied to clarify the reason for its success and to propose improvements for its shortcomings. The reason why the plateau condition is met for the Nilsson model but not for the Woods-Saxon model is understood in a new interpretation of the Strutinsky smoothing procedure as a low-pass filter. Essential features of Kruppa's level density is extracted in terms of the Thomas-Fermi approximation modified to describe spectra obtained from diagonalization in truncated oscillator bases. A method is proposed which weakens the dependence on the smoothing width by applying the Strutinsky smoothing only to the deviations from a reference level density. The BCS equations are modified for the Kruppa's spectrum, which is necessary to treat the pairing correlation properly in the presence of continuum. The potential depth is adjusted for the consistency between the microscopic and macroscopic Fermi energies. It is shown, with these improvements, that the microscopic-macroscopic method is now capable to reliably calculate binding energies of nuclei far from stability.Comment: 66 pages, 29 figures, 1 tabl

    Whispering gallery modes in open quantum billiards

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    The poles of the S-matrix and the wave functions of open 2D quantum billiards with convex boundary of different shape are calculated by the method of complex scaling. Two leads are attached to the cavities. The conductance of the cavities is calculated at energies with one, two and three open channels in each lead. Bands of overlapping resonance states appear which are localized along the convex boundary of the cavities and contribute coherently to the conductance. These bands correspond to the whispering gallery modes appearing in the classical calculations.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures in jpg and gif forma

    Time-resolved dynamics of electron wave packets in chaotic and regular quantum billiards with leads

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    We perform numerical studies of the wave packet propagation through open quantum billiards whose classical counterparts exhibit regular and chaotic dynamics. We show that for t less or similar to tau (tau being the Heisenberg time), the features in the transmitted and reflected currents are directly related to specific classical trajectories connecting the billiard leads. In contrast, the long-time asymptotics of the wave packet dynamics is qualitatively different for classical and quantum billiards. In particularly, the decay of the quantum system obeys a power law that depends on the number of decay channels, and is not sensitive to the nature of classical dynamics (chaotic or regular).Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

    Understanding the burden of bacterial sexually transmitted infections and Trichomonas vaginalis among black Caribbeans in the United Kingdom: Findings from a systematic review

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    BACKGROUND: In the UK, people of black Caribbean (BC) ethnicity continue to be disproportionately affected by bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and Trichomonas vaginalis (TV). We systematically reviewed evidence on the association between bacterial STIs/TV and ethnicity (BC compared to white/white British (WB)) accounting for other risk factors; and differences between these two ethnic groups in the prevalence of risk factors associated with these STIs, sexual healthcare seeking behaviours, and contextual factors influencing STI risk. METHODS: Studies presenting relevant evidence for participants aged ≥14 years and living in the UK were eligible for inclusion. A pre-defined search strategy informed by the inclusion criteria was developed. Eleven electronic databases were searched from the start date to September-October 2016. Two researchers independently screened articles, extracted data using a standardised proforma and resolved discrepancies in discussion with a third researcher. Descriptive summaries of evidence are presented. Meta-analyses were not conducted due to variation in study designs. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. RESULTS: Of 3815 abstracts identified, 15 articles reporting quantitative data were eligible and included in the review. No qualitative studies examining contextual drivers of STI risk among people of BC ethnicity were identified. Compared to the white/WB ethnic group, the greater STI/TV risk among BCs was partially explained by variations in socio-demographic factors, sexual behaviours, and recreational drug use. The prevalence of reporting early sexual debut (<16 years), concurrency, and multiple partners was higher among BC men compared to white/WB men; however, no such differences were observed for women. People of BC ethnicity were more likely to access sexual health services than those of white/WB ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Further research is needed to explore other drivers of the sustained higher STI/TV prevalence among people of BC ethnicity. Developing holistic, tailored interventions that address STI risk and target people of BC ethnicity, especially men, could enhance STI prevention

    Precautionary Regulation in Europe and the United States: A Quantitative Comparison

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    Much attention has been addressed to the question of whether Europe or the United States adopts a more precautionary stance to the regulation of potential environmental, health, and safety risks. Some commentators suggest that Europe is more risk-averse and precautionary, whereas the US is seen as more risk-taking and optimistic about the prospects for new technology. Others suggest that the US is more precautionary because its regulatory process is more legalistic and adversarial, while Europe is more lax and corporatist in its regulations. The flip-flop hypothesis claims that the US was more precautionary than Europe in the 1970s and early 1980s, and that Europe has become more precautionary since then. We examine the levels and trends in regulation of environmental, health, and safety risks since 1970. Unlike previous research, which has studied only a small set of prominent cases selected non-randomly, we develop a comprehensive list of almost 3,000 risks and code the relative stringency of regulation in Europe and the US for each of 100 risks randomly selected from that list for each year from 1970 through 2004. Our results suggest that: (a) averaging over risks, there is no significant difference in relative precaution over the period, (b) weakly consistent with the flip-flop hypothesis, there is some evidence of a modest shift toward greater relative precaution of European regulation since about 1990, although (c) there is a diversity of trends across risks, of which the most common is no change in relative precaution (including cases where Europe and the US are equally precautionary and where Europe or the US has been consistently more precautionary). The overall finding is of a mixed and diverse pattern of relative transatlantic precaution over the period
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