Technical note: The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version 6.2

International audienceThe Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally (about 8 years ago) designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis. Its application fields were extended from air pollution studies to other topics where atmospheric transport plays a role (e.g., exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere, or the global water cycle). It has evolved into a true community model that is now being used by at least 25 groups from 14 different countries and is seeing both operational and research applications. A user manual has been kept actual over the years and was distributed over an internet page along with the model's source code. In this note we provide a citeable technical description of FLEXPART's latest version (6.2)

Xenon-133 and caesium-137 releases into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: determination of the source term, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition

On 11 March 2011, an earthquake occurred about 130 km off the Pacific coast of Japan's main island Honshu, followed by a large tsunami. The resulting loss of electric power at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant developed into a disaster causing massive release of radioactivity into the atmosphere. In this study, we determine the emissions into the atmosphere of two isotopes, the noble gas xenon-133 (<sup>133</sup>Xe) and the aerosol-bound caesium-137 (<sup>137</sup>Cs), which have very different release characteristics as well as behavior in the atmosphere. To determine radionuclide emissions as a function of height and time until 20 April, we made a first guess of release rates based on fuel inventories and documented accident events at the site. This first guess was subsequently improved by inverse modeling, which combined it with the results of an atmospheric transport model, FLEXPART, and measurement data from several dozen stations in Japan, North America and other regions. We used both atmospheric activity concentration measurements as well as, for <sup>137</sup>Cs, measurements of bulk deposition. Regarding <sup>133</sup>Xe, we find a total release of 15.3 (uncertainty range 12.2–18.3) EBq, which is more than twice as high as the total release from Chernobyl and likely the largest radioactive noble gas release in history. The entire noble gas inventory of reactor units 1–3 was set free into the atmosphere between 11 and 15 March 2011. In fact, our release estimate is higher than the entire estimated <sup>133</sup>Xe inventory of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, which we explain with the decay of iodine-133 (half-life of 20.8 h) into <sup>133</sup>Xe. There is strong evidence that the <sup>133</sup>Xe release started before the first active venting was made, possibly indicating structural damage to reactor components and/or leaks due to overpressure which would have allowed early release of noble gases. For <sup>137</sup>Cs, the inversion results give a total emission of 36.6 (20.1–53.1) PBq, or about 43% of the estimated Chernobyl emission. Our results indicate that <sup>137</sup>Cs emissions peaked on 14–15 March but were generally high from 12 until 19 March, when they suddenly dropped by orders of magnitude at the time when spraying of water on the spent-fuel pool of unit 4 started. This indicates that emissions may not have originated only from the damaged reactor cores, but also from the spent-fuel pool of unit 4. This would also confirm that the spraying was an effective countermeasure. We explore the main dispersion and deposition patterns of the radioactive cloud, both regionally for Japan as well as for the entire Northern Hemisphere. While at first sight it seemed fortunate that westerly winds prevailed most of the time during the accident, a different picture emerges from our detailed analysis. Exactly during and following the period of the strongest <sup>137</sup>Cs emissions on 14 and 15 March as well as after another period with strong emissions on 19 March, the radioactive plume was advected over Eastern Honshu Island, where precipitation deposited a large fraction of <sup>137</sup>Cs on land surfaces. Radioactive clouds reached North America on 15 March and Europe on 22 March. By middle of April, <sup>133</sup>Xe was fairly uniformly distributed in the middle latitudes of the entire Northern Hemisphere and was for the first time also measured in the Southern Hemisphere (Darwin station, Australia). In general, simulated and observed concentrations of <sup>133</sup>Xe and <sup>137</sup>Cs both at Japanese as well as at remote sites were in good quantitative agreement. Altogether, we estimate that 6.4 PBq of <sup>137</sup>Cs, or 18% of the total fallout until 20 April, were deposited over Japanese land areas, while most of the rest fell over the North Pacific Ocean. Only 0.7 PBq, or 1.9% of the total fallout were deposited on land areas other than Japan

Seven day pre-analytical stability of serum and plasma neurofilament light chain.

Neurofilament light chain (NfL) has emerged as a biomarker of neuroaxonal damage in several neurologic conditions. With increasing availability of fourth-generation immunoassays detecting NfL in blood, aspects of pre-analytical stability of this biomarker remain unanswered. This study investigated NfL concentrations in serum and plasma samples of 32 patients with neurological diagnoses using state of the art Simoa technology. We tested the effect of delayed freezing of up to 7 days and statistically determined stability and validity of measured concentrations. We found concentrations of NfL in serum and plasma to remain stable at room temperature when processing of samples is delayed up to 7 days (serum: mean absolute difference 0.9 pg/mL, intraindividual variation 1.2%; plasma: mean absolute difference 0.5 pg/mL, intraindividual variation 1.3%). Consistency of these results was nearly perfect for serum and excellent for plasma (intraclass correlation coefficients 0.99 and 0.94, respectively). In conclusion, the soluble serum and plasma NfL concentration remains stable when unprocessed blood samples are stored up to 7 days at room temperature. This information is essential for ensuring reliable study protocols, for example, when shipment of fresh samples is needed

Atmospheric transport modeling based estimation of radioactive release from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident

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Addressing Grand Challenges in Earth Observation Science: The Earth Observation Data Centre for Water Resources Monitoring

Earth observation is entering a new era where the increasing availability of free and open global satellite data sets combined with the computing power offered by modern information technologies opens up the possibility to process high-resolution data sets at global scale and short repeat intervals in a fully automatic fashion. This will not only boost the availability of higher level earth observation data in purely quantitative terms, but can also be expected to trigger a step change in the quality and usability of earth observation data. However, the technical, scientific, and organisational challenges that need to be overcome to arrive at this point are significant. First of all, Petabyte-scale data centres are needed for storing and processing complete satellite data records. Second, innovative processing chains that allow fully automatic processing of the satellite data from the raw sensor records to higher-level geophysical products need to be developed. Last but not least, new models of cooperation between public and private actors need to be found in order to live up to the first two challenges. This paper offers a discussion of how the Earth Observation Data Centre for Water Resources Monitoring (EODC) – a catalyser for an open and international cooperation of public and private organisations – will address these three grand challenges with the aim to foster the use of earth observation for monitoring of global water resources

Estimates of CO2 from fires in the United States: implications for carbon management

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fires emit significant amounts of CO₂to the atmosphere. These emissions, however, are highly variable in both space and time. Additionally, CO₂emissions estimates from fires are very uncertain. The combination of high spatial and temporal variability and substantial uncertainty associated with fire CO₂emissions can be problematic to efforts to develop remote sensing, monitoring, and inverse modeling techniques to quantify carbon fluxes at the continental scale. Policy and carbon management decisions based on atmospheric sampling/modeling techniques must account for the impact of fire CO₂emissions; a task that may prove very difficult for the foreseeable future. This paper addresses the variability of CO₂emissions from fires across the US, how these emissions compare to anthropogenic emissions of CO₂and Net Primary Productivity, and the potential implications for monitoring programs and policy development.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Average annual CO₂emissions from fires in the lower 48 (LOWER48) states from 2002–2006 are estimated to be 213 (± 50 std. dev.) Tg CO₂yr^-1and 80 (± 89 std. dev.) Tg CO₂yr^-1in Alaska. These estimates have significant interannual and spatial variability. Needleleaf forests in the Southeastern US and the Western US are the dominant source regions for US fire CO₂emissions. Very high emission years typically coincide with droughts, and climatic variability is a major driver of the high interannual and spatial variation in fire emissions. The amount of CO₂emitted from fires in the US is equivalent to 4–6% of anthropogenic emissions at the continental scale and, at the state-level, fire emissions of CO₂can, in some cases, exceed annual emissions of CO₂from fossil fuel usage.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CO₂released from fires, overall, is a small fraction of the estimated average annual Net Primary Productivity and, unlike fossil fuel CO₂emissions, the pulsed emissions of CO₂during fires are partially counterbalanced by uptake of CO₂by regrowing vegetation in the decades following fire. Changes in fire severity and frequency can, however, lead to net changes in atmospheric CO₂and the short-term impacts of fire emissions on monitoring, modeling, and carbon management policy are substantial.</p

Atmospheric removal times of the aerosol-bound radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs and ¹³¹I measured after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident &ndash; a constraint for air quality and climate models

Caesium-137 (137Cs) and iodine-131 (131I) are radionuclides of particular concern during nuclear accidents, because they are emitted in large amounts and are of significant health impact. 137Cs and 131I attach to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM) aerosols and share their fate as the aerosols are removed from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. Here, we estimate their removal times from the atmosphere using a unique high-precision global measurement data set collected over several months after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. The noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe), also released during the accident, served as a passive tracer of air mass transport for determining the removal times of 137Cs and 131I via the decrease in the measured ratios 137Cs/133Xe and 131I/133Xe over time. After correction for radioactive decay, the 137Cs/133Xe ratios reflect the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition, whereas the 131I/133Xe ratios are also influenced by aerosol production from gaseous 131I. We find removal times for 137Cs of 10.0–13.9 days and for 131I of 17.1–24.2 days during April and May 2011. The removal time of 131I is longer due to the aerosol production from gaseous 131I, thus the removal time for 137Cs serves as a better estimate for aerosol lifetime. The removal time of 131I is of interest for semi-volatile species. We discuss possible caveats (e.g. late emissions, resuspension) that can affect the results, and compare the 137Cs removal times with observation-based and modeled aerosol lifetimes. Our 137Cs removal time of 10.0&ndash;13.9 days should be representative of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of fresh AM aerosols directly emitted from surface sources. However, the substantial difference to the mean lifetimes of AM aerosols obtained from aerosol models, typically in the range of 3–7 days, warrants further research on the cause of this discrepancy. Too short modeled AM aerosol lifetimes would have serious implications for air quality and climate model predictions