Relative magnitudes of sources of uncertainty in assessing climate change impacts on water supply security for the southern Adelaide water supply system

The sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on runoff are increasingly well recognized; however, translating these uncertainties to urban water security has received less attention in the literature. Furthermore, runoff cannot be used as a surrogate for water supply security when studying the impacts of climate change due to the nonlinear transformations in modeling water supply and the effects of additional uncertainties, such as demand. Consequently, this study presents a scenario-based sensitivity analysis to qualitatively rank the relative contributions of major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on water supply security through time. This can then be used by water authorities to guide water planning and management decisions. The southern system of Adelaide, South Australia, is used to illustrate the methodology for which water supply system reliability is examined across six greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, seven general circulation models, six demand projections, and 1000 stochastic rainfall time series. Results indicate the order of the relative contributions of uncertainty changes through time; however, demand is always the greatest source of uncertainty and GHG emissions scenarios the least. In general, reliability decreases over the planning horizon, illustrating the need for additional water sources or demand mitigation, while increasing uncertainty with time suggests flexible management is required to ensure future supply security with minimum regret.F.L. Paton, H.R. Maier and G.C. Dand

Sarcopenic obesity and risk of new onset depressive symptoms in older adults: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

We examined the role of sarcopenic obesity as a risk factor for new-onset depressive symptoms over 6-year follow-up in a large sample of older adults

Symptomatic, biochemical and radiographic recovery in patients with Covid-19

Background: The symptoms, radiography, biochemistry and healthcare utilisation of patients with COVID-19 following discharge from hospital have not been well described. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 401 adult patients attending a clinic following an index hospital admission or emergency department attendance with COVID-19. Regression models were used to assess the association between characteristics and persistent abnormal chest radiographs or breathlessness. Results: 75.1% of patients were symptomatic at a median of 53 days post discharge and 72 days after symptom onset and chest radiographs were abnormal in 47.4%. Symptoms and radiographic abnormalities were similar in PCR-positive and PCR-negative patients. Severity of COVID-19 was significantly associated with persistent radiographic abnormalities and breathlessness. 18.5% of patients had unscheduled healthcare visits in the 30 days post discharge. Conclusions: Patients with COVID-19 experience persistent symptoms and abnormal blood biomarkers with a gradual resolution of radiological abnormalities over time. These findings can inform patients and clinicians about expected recovery times and plan services for follow-up of patients with COVID-19

A Nonparametric Wet/Dry Spell Model for Resampling Daily Precipitation

A nonparametric wet/dry spell model is developed for resampling daily precipitation at a site. The model considers alternating sequences of wet and dry days in a given season of the year. All marginal, joint, and conditional probability densities of interest (e.g., dry spell length, wet spell length, precipitation amount, and wet spell length given prior to dry spell length) are estimated nonparametrically using at-site data and kernel probability density estimators. Procedures for the disaggregation of wet spell precipitation into daily precipitation and for the generation of synthetic sequences are proffered. An application of the model for generating synthetic precipitation traces at a site in Utah is presented

The effects of progressive resistance training combined with a whey-protein drink and vitamin D supplementation on glycaemic control, body composition and cardiometabolic risk factors in older adults with type 2 diabetes: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background - While physical activity, energy restriction and weight loss are the cornerstone of type 2 diabetes management, less emphasis is placed on optimizing skeletal muscle mass. As muscle is the largest mass of insulin-sensitive tissue and the predominant reservoir for glucose disposal, there is a need to develop safe and effective evidence-based, lifestyle management strategies that optimize muscle mass as well as improve glycaemic control and cardiometabolic risk factors in people with this disease, particularly older adults who experience accelerated muscle loss. Methods/Design - Using a two-arm randomized controlled trial, this 6-month study builds upon the community-based progressive resistance training (PRT) programme Lift for Life® to evaluate whether ingestion of a whey-protein drink combined with vitamin D supplementation can enhance the effects of PRT on glycaemic control, body composition and cardiometabolic health in older adults with type 2 diabetes. Approximately 200 adults aged 50 to 75 years with type 2 diabetes, treated with either diet alone or oral hypoglycaemic agents (not insulin), will be recruited. All participants will be asked to participate in a structured, supervised PRT programme based on the Lift for Life® programme structure, and randomly allocated to receive a whey-protein drink (20 g daily of whey-protein plus 20 g after each PRT session) plus vitamin D supplements (2000 IU/day), or no additional powder and supplements. The primary outcome measures to be collected at baseline, 3 and 6 months will be glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and insulin sensitivity (homeostatic model assessment). Secondary outcomes will include changes in: muscle mass, size and intramuscular fat; fat mass; muscle strength and function; blood pressure; levels of lipids, adipokines and inflammatory markers, serum insulin-like growth factor-1 and 25-hydroxyvitamin D; renal function; diabetes medication; health-related quality of life, and cognitive function. Discussion - The findings from this study will provide new evidence on whether increased dietary protein achieved through the ingestion of a whey-protein drink combined with vitamin D supplementation can enhance the effects of PRT on glycaemic control, muscle mass and size, and cardiometabolic risk factors in older adults with type 2 diabetes

Students’ satisfaction and teaching efficiency of university offer

This study analyses the factors affecting students’ satisfaction with university experience, focusing on the aspects characterising the teaching efficiency of educational offer. For this purpose, organisation of teaching activities, available information, teaching materials, and other facilities offered to students to make their learning experience more successful, are considered as indicators of teaching efficiency. Our interest in this topic is justified by the importance that students’ satisfaction assumes, not only as indicator of the quality of educational services but also for its relationship with overall life satisfaction and subjective well-being. A structural equation model with latent variables is estimated by using survey and administrative data of the University of Pisa. Main findings seem to show that teaching efficiency has a positive effect on satisfaction and suggest that whenever it is inadequate, or at least, considered as such, students are less satisfied for their university experience. The effects of other factors on students’ satisfaction such as studies organisation, social capital and internship experience are also discussed

Baseline characteristics of patients in the reduction of events with darbepoetin alfa in heart failure trial (RED-HF)

<p>Aims: This report describes the baseline characteristics of patients in the Reduction of Events with Darbepoetin alfa in Heart Failure trial (RED-HF) which is testing the hypothesis that anaemia correction with darbepoetin alfa will reduce the composite endpoint of death from any cause or hospital admission for worsening heart failure, and improve other outcomes.</p> <p>Methods and results: Key demographic, clinical, and laboratory findings, along with baseline treatment, are reported and compared with those of patients in other recent clinical trials in heart failure. Compared with other recent trials, RED-HF enrolled more elderly [mean age 70 (SD 11.4) years], female (41%), and black (9%) patients. RED-HF patients more often had diabetes (46%) and renal impairment (72% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Patients in RED-HF had heart failure of longer duration [5.3 (5.4) years], worse NYHA class (35% II, 63% III, and 2% IV), and more signs of congestion. Mean EF was 30% (6.8%). RED-HF patients were well treated at randomization, and pharmacological therapy at baseline was broadly similar to that of other recent trials, taking account of study-specific inclusion/exclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) haemoglobin at baseline was 112 (106–117) g/L.</p> <p>Conclusion: The anaemic patients enrolled in RED-HF were older, moderately to markedly symptomatic, and had extensive co-morbidity.</p&gt

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability