The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to forecast out-of-sample four major US dollar exchange rates using various economic criteria of model evaluation. The analysis shows that the model provides economic value to a risk-averse investor, delivering substantial utility gains when switching from a portfolio strategy based on the random walk benchmark to one that conditions on cyclical external imbalances.foreign exchange; predictability; global imbalances; fundamentals.

The market for lemmings: The herding behavior of pension funds

Using a unique dataset that covers UK defined-benefit pension fund asset allocations over the past 25 years, we provide robust evidence that pension funds display strong herding behavior, and tend to herd in subgroups defined by fund size and sponsor type. We also show that, while pension funds tend to switch from equities to bonds as their liabilities mature, they mechanically rebalance their portfolios in the short term. Finally, we find that their price impact is neither persistent nor stabilizing, and that there are only small cross-sectional differences in returns across pension funds, consistent with their widespread herding behavior

The influence of multispectral scanner spatial resolution on forest feature classification

Inappropriate spatial resolution and corresponding data processing techniques may be major causes for non-optimal forest classification results frequently achieved from multispectral scanner (MSS) data. Procedures and results of empirical investigations are studied to determine the influence of MSS spatial resolution on the classification of forest features into levels of detail or hierarchies of information that might be appropriate for nationwide forest surveys and detailed in-place inventories. Two somewhat different, but related studies are presented. The first consisted of establishing classification accuracies for several hierarchies of features as spatial resolution was progressively coarsened from (2 meters) squared to (64 meters) squared. The second investigated the capabilities for specialized processing techniques to improve upon the results of conventional processing procedures for both coarse and fine resolution data

New-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation: Prevalence, risk factors, and management

New-Onset Diabetes After Transplantation (NODAT) is an increasingly recognized severe metabolic complication of kidney transplantation causing lower graft function and survival and reduced long-term patient survival mainly due to cardiovascular events. The real incidence of NODAT after kidney transplantation is difficult to establish, because different classification systems and definitions have been employed over the years. Several risk factors, already present before or arising after transplantation, in particular the employed immunosuppressive regimens, have been related to the development of NODAT. However the responsible pathogenic mechanisms are still far to be perfectly known. Awareness of NODAT and of the NODAT-related factors is of paramount importance for the clinicians in order to individuate higher risk patients and arrange screening strategies. The risk of NODAT can be reduced by planning preventive measures and by tailoring immunosuppressive regimens according to the patient characteristics. Once NODAT has been diagnosed, the administration of specific anti-hyperglycemic therapy is mandatory to reach a tight glycemic control, which contributes to significantly reduce posttransplant mortality and morbidity

Foreign exchange risk and the predictability of carry trade returns

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the time-series predictive ability of foreign exchange risk measures on the return to the carry trade, a popular investment strategy that borrows in low-interest currencies and lends in high-interest currencies. Using quantile regressions, we find that higher market variance is significantly related to large future carry trade losses, which is consistent with the unwinding of the carry trade in times of high volatility. The decomposition of market variance into average variance and average correlation shows that the predictive power of market variance is primarily due to average variance since average correlation is not significantly related to carry trade returns. Finally, a new version of the carry trade that conditions on market variance generates performance gains net of transaction costs

Risky bank guarantees

© 2019 Elsevier B.V. Applying standard portfolio-sort techniques to bank asset returns for 15 countries from 2004 to 2018, we uncover a risk premium associated with implicit government guarantees. This risk premium is intimately tied to sovereign risk, suggesting that guaranteed banks, defined as those of particular importance to the national economy, inherit the risk of the guarantor. Indeed, this premium does not exist in safe-haven countries. We rationalize these findings with a model in which implicit government guarantees are risky in the sense that they provide protection that depends on the aggregate state of the economy

Contraceptive use and sexual function: a comparison of Italian female medical students and women attending family planning services

Objectives: The aims of the study were to understand how education relates to contraceptive choice and how sexual function can vary in relation to the use of a contraceptive method. Methods: We surveyed female medical students and women attending a family planning service (FPS) in Italy. Participants completed an online questionnaire which asked for information on sociodemographics, lifestyle, sexuality and contraceptive use and also included items of the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI). Results: The questionnaire was completed by 413 women (362 students and 51 women attending the FPS) between the ages of 18 and 30 years. FSFI scores revealed a lower risk of sexual dysfunction among women in the control group who did not use oral hormonal contraception. The differences in FSFI total scores between the two study groups, when subdivided by the primary contraceptive method used, was statistically significant (p < 0.005). Women using the vaginal ring had the lowest risk of sexual dysfunction, compared with all other women, and had a positive sexual function profile. In particular, the highest FSFI domain scores were lubrication, orgasm and satisfaction, also among the control group. Expensive contraception, such as long-acting reversible contraception, was not preferred by this young population, even though such methods are more contemporary and manageable. Compared with controls, students had lower compliance with contraception and a negative attitude towards voluntary termination of pregnancy. Conclusion: Despite their scientific knowledge, Italian female medical students were found to need sexual and contraceptive assistance. A woman's sexual function responds to her awareness of her body and varies in relation to how she is guided in her contraceptive choice. Contraceptive counselling is an excellent means to improve female sexuality

NEW VARIETIES OF DURUM WHEAT (TRITICUM DURUM DESF.) IN SICILY: EVALUATION OF GENOTYPE-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION

Durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) is the typical cereal crop in semi-arid Italian environments, and Sicily, is one of the regions of southern Italy where the cultivation of durum wheat is very spread. The thesis was the comparison of 14 genotypes of durum wheat located in 11 locations typical of the Sicilian cropland in the years 2006-2011. The analysis of the results has allowed to study the productive and qualitative behavior of the tested genotypes. In addition, the study of interaction genotype-environment, has allowed to verify the yield stability in quantity and the quality of the grain by the individual genotypes

Endovascular Stent Grafts as a Safe Secondary Option for Paraanastomotic Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Objective: To describe our experience of endovascular repair of paraanastomotic aortic aneurysm. Methods and results: From March 2001 to December 2004 we identified 6 patients with a paraanastomotic aortic aneurysms following previous open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. All patients were treated with endovascular surgery under epidural anaesthesia. There were no major complications, surgical conversions or deaths. Four patients received a bifurcated aortic stent-graft, and two an aorto-uniliac stent-graft followed by a femoro-femoral bypass. At follow-up (mean 26.1 ± 10.2 months) there were no deaths, endoleaks or graft migrations observed. Conclusion: Endovascular surgery, avoiding general anesthesia and re-laparotomy, is the ideal technique for treatment of this complication resulting from failed primary conventional AAA repair. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Economic evaluation of crop acreage estimation by multispectral remote sensing

The author has identified the following significant results. Photointerpretation of S190A and S190B imagery showed significantly better resolution with the S190B system. A small tendancy to underestimate acreage was observed. This averaged 6 percent and varied with field size. The S190B system had adequate resolution for acreage measurement but the color film did not provide adequate contrast to allow detailed classification of ground cover from imagery of a single date. In total 78 percent of the fields were correctly classified but with 56 percent correct for the major crop, corn