The Tribological Behaviour of Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polyaryletherketones (PAEKs) through their Glass Transitions.

yesAdvanced engineering polymers of the Polyaryletherketone (PAEK) family with carbon fibre reinforcement are finding application in engineering systems as tribological bearing surfaces under severe operating conditions that cyclically move the polymer into and beyond the glass transition temperature region. To support such an application, the friction in high speed and low load PAEK-steel sliding contacts was investigated both unlubricated and lubricated with a trinonyl trimellitate ester, a base fluid for high temperature industrial lubricants. Four polymers in the PAEK family, PEEK, PEK, PEKEKK and PEKK, with 30%wt of carbon fibre whiskers were tested against an AISI 4140 steel disc. When unlubricated, low friction depended upon the formation of a PAEK transfer film on the steel disc and when this became unstable in the glass transition region the friction increased to much higher levels with associated polymer surface damage. Frictional heating due to the high sliding speed dominated the differences in glass transition behaviour between the four PAEKs. When lubricated, the lubricant film controlled friction and there was no significant effect of the glass transition of any of the PAEKs. The irreversible nature of the glass transition in PAEKs in such tribological applications, due to high surface damage at high temperature, means that it is essential to ensure effective lubrication in both fluid film and boundary lubrication.Innovate UK, Knowledge Transfer Partnershi

The Gravitational Demise of Cold Degenerate Stars

We consider the long term fate and evolution of cold degenerate stars under the action of gravity alone. Although such stars cannot emit radiation through the Hawking mechanism, the wave function of the star will contain a small admixture of black hole states. These black hole states will emit radiation and hence the star can lose its mass energy in the long term. We discuss the allowed range of possible degenerate stellar evolution within this framework.Comment: LaTeX, 18 pages, one figure, accepted to Physical Review

Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provides a key statistical tool for understanding the many quantities of interest that are not explicit in the underlying epidemiological data streams. Of these, the effective reproduction number, R, has taken on special significance in terms of the general understanding of whether the epidemic is under control (R < 1). Unfortunately, none of the epidemiological data streams are designed for modelling, hence assimilating information from multiple (often changing) sources of data is a major challenge that is particularly stark in novel disease outbreaks. Here, focusing on the dynamics of the first-wave (March-June 2020), we present in some detail the inference scheme employed for calibrating the Warwick COVID-19 model to the available public health data streams, which span hospitalisations, critical care occupancy, mortality and serological testing. We then perform computational simulations, making use of the acquired parameter posterior distributions, to assess how the accuracy of short-term predictions varied over the timecourse of the outbreak. To conclude, we compare how refinements to data streams and model structure impact estimates of epidemiological measures, including the estimated growth rate and daily incidence

Green Plants in the Red: A Baseline Global Assessment for the IUCN Sampled Red List Index for Plants

Plants provide fundamental support systems for life on Earth and are the basis for all terrestrial ecosystems; a decline in plant diversity will be detrimental to all other groups of organisms including humans. Decline in plant diversity has been hard to quantify, due to the huge numbers of known and yet to be discovered species and the lack of an adequate baseline assessment of extinction risk against which to track changes. The biodiversity of many remote parts of the world remains poorly known, and the rate of new assessments of extinction risk for individual plant species approximates the rate at which new plant species are described. Thus the question ‘How threatened are plants?’ is still very difficult to answer accurately. While completing assessments for each species of plant remains a distant prospect, by assessing a randomly selected sample of species the Sampled Red List Index for Plants gives, for the first time, an accurate view of how threatened plants are across the world. It represents the first key phase of ongoing efforts to monitor the status of the world’s plants. More than 20% of plant species assessed are threatened with extinction, and the habitat with the most threatened species is overwhelmingly tropical rain forest, where the greatest threat to plants is anthropogenic habitat conversion, for arable and livestock agriculture, and harvesting of natural resources. Gymnosperms (e.g. conifers and cycads) are the most threatened group, while a third of plant species included in this study have yet to receive an assessment or are so poorly known that we cannot yet ascertain whether they are threatened or not. This study provides a baseline assessment from which trends in the status of plant biodiversity can be measured and periodically reassessed

Implementation of U.K. Earth system models for CMIP6

We describe the scientific and technical implementation of two models for a core set of experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The models used are the physical atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice model HadGEM3-GC3.1 and the Earth system model UKESM1 which adds a carbon-nitrogen cycle and atmospheric chemistry to HadGEM3-GC3.1. The model results are constrained by the external boundary conditions (forcing data) and initial conditions.We outline the scientific rationale and assumptions made in specifying these. Notable details of the implementation include an ozone redistribution scheme for prescribed ozone simulations (HadGEM3-GC3.1) to avoid inconsistencies with the model's thermal tropopause, and land use change in dynamic vegetation simulations (UKESM1) whose influence will be subject to potential biases in the simulation of background natural vegetation.We discuss the implications of these decisions for interpretation of the simulation results. These simulations are expensive in terms of human and CPU resources and will underpin many further experiments; we describe some of the technical steps taken to ensure their scientific robustness and reproducibility