Business cycles, international trade and capital flows: Evidence from Latin America

This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within the LA region there are considerable differences between countries, success stories coexisting with extremely vulnerable economies. They also show that the LA region as a whole is largely dependent on external developments, especially in the years after the great recession of 2008 and 2009. The trade channel appears to be the most important source of business cycle comovement, whilst capital flows are found to have a limited role, especially in the very short run

Statistical Analysis of 100 Gbps per Wavelength SWDM VCSEL-MMF Data Center Links on a Large Set of OM3 and OM4 Fibers

We present a detailed statistical study on achievable reach of 100 Gbps data center optical links based on vertical cavity surface emitting lasers (VCSEL) and multimode fibers (MMF). Based on the characterization of the spectral and spatial properties of eight lasers and of the modal and dispersion behavior of a large set of 20233 OM3 and OM4 modeled fibers (obtained by properly extending an initial set of 500 measured fibers), we compute the resulting frequency responses of all of the VCSEL-MMF combinations. Then, we feed them to a numerical tool modeling PAM-4 transmission at 100 Gbps net bit rate per wavelength. Our model analyzes performance at distances up to 400 meters, using three different adaptive equalizers at the receiver and considering two forward error correction overheads. We show that 100 Gbps operation is feasible for 99% of the simulated links reaching up to 120 m over OM4 at 850 nm and using a decision feedback equalizer (DFE). Aggregated data rates of 200 Gbps and 400 Gbps per fiber using Shortwave Wavelength Division Multiplexing (SWDM) are achievable for 99% of the links reaching 80 m over OM4 using two wavelengths and feed-forward equalizer (FFE) and four wavelengths and maximum likelihood sequence estimation (MLSE)-based equalizer, respectively

The role of uncertainty, sentiment and cross-country interactions in G7 output dynamics

Output fluctuations in the G7 are characterised using a VAR model of countries' actual and expected outputs and uncertainty over these. New measures are developed to quantify the relative importance of economic prospects-versus-uncertainty, global-versus-national effects and fundamentals-versus-sentiment for countries' persistent output movements. National and global contributions are found to be equally important across the G7 although considerable differences exist between countries. Uncertainty, and especially cross-country uncertainty, is important in propagating the effects of shocks and generates around 20% of countries' persistent output movements on average. Fundamentals dominate output movements although, with an 80:20 split, sentiment plays a non-negligible role

Prospect for Charge Current Neutrino Interactions Measurements at the CERN-PS

Tensions in several phenomenological models grew with experimental results on neutrino/antineutrino oscillations at Short-Baseline (SBL) and with the recent, carefully recomputed, antineutrino fluxes from nuclear reactors. At a refurbished SBL CERN-PS facility an experiment aimed to address the open issues has been proposed [1], based on the technology of imaging in ultra-pure cryogenic Liquid Argon (LAr). Motivated by this scenario a detailed study of the physics case was performed. We tackled specific physics models and we optimized the neutrino beam through a full simulation. Experimental aspects not fully covered by the LAr detection, i.e. the measurements of the lepton charge on event-by-event basis and their energy over a wide range, were also investigated. Indeed the muon leptons from Charged Current (CC) (anti-)neutrino interactions play an important role in disentangling different phenomenological scenarios provided their charge state is determined. Also, the study of muon appearance/disappearance can benefit of the large statistics of CC muon events from the primary neutrino beam. Results of our study are reported in detail in this proposal. We aim to design, construct and install two Spectrometers at "NEAR" and "FAR" sites of the SBL CERN-PS, compatible with the already proposed LAr detectors. Profiting of the large mass of the two Spectrometers their stand-alone performances have also been exploited.Comment: 70 pages, 38 figures. Proposal submitted to SPS-C, CER