The role of the stratospheric polar vortex for the austral jet response to greenhouse gas forcing

Future shifts of the austral midlatitude jet are subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. Here we show that, in addition to other previously identified sources of inter-model uncertainty, changes in the timing of the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown modulate the austral jet response to greenhouse gas forcing during summertime (December-February). The relationship is such that a larger delay in vortex breakdown favors a more poleward jet shift, with an estimated 0.7-0.8-degree increase in jet shift per 10 days delay in vortex breakdown. The causality of the link between the timing of the vortex breakdown and the tropospheric jet response is demonstrated through climate modeling experiments with imposed changes in the seasonality of the stratospheric polar vortex. The vortex response is estimated to account for about 30% of the inter-model variance in the shift of the summertime austral jet, and about 45% of the mean jet shift

Charmed quark component of the photon wave function

We determine the c-anti-c component of the photon wave function on the basis of (i) the data on the transitions e+ e- -> J/psi(3096), psi(3686), psi(4040), psi(4415), (ii) partial widths of the two-photon decays eta_{c0}(2979), chi_{c0}(3415), chi_{c2}(3556) -> gamma-gamma, and (iii) wave functions of the charmonium states obtained by solving the Bethe-Salpeter equation for the c-anti-c system. Using the obtained c-anti-c component of the photon wave function we calculate the gamma-gamma decay partial widths for radial excitation 2S state, eta_{c0}(3594) -> gamma-gamma, and 2P states chi_{c0}(3849), chi_{c2}(3950) -> gamma-gamma.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figure

Quark--antiquark states and their radiative transitions in terms of the spectral integral equation. {\Huge II.} Charmonia

In the precedent paper of the authors (hep-ph/0510410), the $b\bar b$ states were treated in the framework of the spectral integral equation, together with simultaneous calculations of radiative decays of the considered bottomonia. In the present paper, such a study is carried out for the charmonium $(c\bar c)$ states. We reconstruct the interaction in the $c\bar c$-sector on the basis of data for the charmonium levels with $J^{PC}=0^{-+}$, $1^{--}$, $0^{++}$, $1^{++}$, $2^{++}$, $1^{+-}$ and radiative transitions $\psi(2S)\to\gamma\chi_{c0}(1P)$, $\gamma\chi_{c1}(1P)$, $\gamma\chi_{c2}(1P)$, $\gamma\eta_{c}(1S)$ and $\chi_{c0}(1P)$, $\chi_{c1}(1P)$, $\chi_{c2}(1P)\to\gamma J/\psi$. The $c\bar c$ levels and their wave functions are calculated for the radial excitations with $n\le 6$. Also, we determine the $c\bar c$ component of the photon wave function using the $e^+e^-$ annihilation data: $e^+e^- \to J/\psi(3097)$, $\psi(3686)$, $\psi(3770)$, $\psi(4040)$, $\psi(4160)$, $\psi(4415)$ and perform the calculations of the partial widths of the two-photon decays for the $n=1$ states: $\eta_{c0}(1S)$, $\chi_{c0}(1P)$, $\chi_{c2}(1P)\to\gamma\gamma$, and $n=2$ states: $\eta_{c0}(2S)\to\gamma\gamma$, $\chi_{c0}(2P)$, $\chi_{c2}(2P)\to \gamma\gamma$. We discuss the status of the recently observed $c\bar c$ states X(3872) and Y(3941): according to our results, the X(3872) can be either $\chi_{c1}(2P)$ or $\eta_{c2}(1D)$, while Y(3941) is $\chi_{c2}(2P)$.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure

Exact two-particle eigenstates in partially reduced QED

We consider a reformulation of QED in which covariant Green functions are used to solve for the electromagnetic field in terms of the fermion fields. It is shown that exact few-fermion eigenstates of the resulting Hamiltonian can be obtained in the canonical equal-time formalism for the case where there are no free photons. These eigenstates lead to two- and three-body Dirac-like equations with electromagnetic interactions. Perturbative and some numerical solutions of the two-body equations are presented for positronium and muonium-like systems, for various strengths of the coupling.Comment: 33 pages, LaTex 2.09, 4 figures in EPS forma

Quark-diquark Systematics of Baryons: Spectral Integral Equations for Systems Composed by Light Quarks

For baryons composed by the light quarks ($q=u,d$) we write spectral integral equation using the notion of two diquarks: (i) axial--vector state, $D^{1}_{1}$, with the spin $S_D=1$ and isospin $I_D=1$ and (ii) scalar one, $D^{0}_{0}$, with the spin $S_D=0$ and isospin $I_D=0$. We present spectral integral equations for the $qD^{0}_{0}$ and $qD^{1}_{1}$ states taking into account quark--diquark confinement interaction.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure

The Reliability of Global and Hemispheric Surface Temperature Records

The purpose of this review article is to discuss the development and associated estimation of uncertainties in the global and hemispheric surface temperature records. The review begins by detailing the groups that produce surface temperature datasets. After discussing the reasons for similarities and differences between the various products, the main issues that must be addressed when deriving accurate estimates, particularly for hemispheric and global averages, are then considered. These issues are discussed in the order of their importance for temperature records at these spatial scales: biases in SST data, particularly before the 1940s; the exposure of land-based thermometers before the development of louvred screens in the late 19th century; and urbanization effects in some regions in recent decades. The homogeneity of land-based records is also discussed; however, at these large scales it is relatively unimportant. The article concludes by illustrating hemispheric and global temperature records from the four groups that produce series in near-real time

Current challenges and future directions in data assimilation and reanalysis

The first Joint WCRP1-WWRP2 Symposium on Data Assimilation and Reanalysis took place on13-17 September 2021, and it was organized in conjunction with the ECMWF Annual Seminaron observations. The last WCRP/WWRP-organized meetings were held separately for data assimilation and reanalysis in 2017 (Buizza et al. 2018; Cardinali et al. 2019). Since then, commonchallenges and new emerging topics have increased the need to bring these communities together toexchange new ideas and findings. Thus, a symposium involving the aforementioned communitieswas jointly organized by DWD3, HErZ4, WCRP, WWRP, and the ECMWF annual seminar. Majorgoals were to increase diversity, provide early career scientists with opportunities to present theirwork and extend their professional network, and bridge gaps between the various communities.The online format allowed more than 500 participants from over 50 countries to meet in avirtual setting, using the gathertown 5 platform as the central tool to access the meeting. A virtualconference center was created where people could freely move around and talk to other close-byparticipants. A lobby served as the main hub and it connected the poster halls and the conferencerooms for the oral presentations and the ECMWF seminar talks. The feedback from the participantswas overwhelmingly positive.Scientifically, the meeting offered opportunities to bring together the communities of Earth systemdata assimilation, reanalysis and observations to identify current challenges, seek opportunitiesfor collaboration, and strategic planning on more integrated systems for the longer term. Thecontributions totalled 140 oral and over 150 poster presentations covering a large variety oftopics with increased interest in Earth system approaches, machine learning and increased spatial resolutions. Key findings of the symposium and the ECMWF annual seminar are summarized insection 2. Section 3 highlights the common and emerging challenges of these communities.Fil: Valmassoi, Arianna. Hans-ertel-centre For Weather Research; Alemania. Institut Fur Geowissenschaften ; Universitaet Bonn;Fil: Keller, Jan D.. Deutscher Wetterdienst; AlemaniaFil: Kleist, Daryl T.. National Ocean And Atmospheric Administration; Estados UnidosFil: English, Stephen. European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasting; Reino UnidoFil: Ahrens, Bodo. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Ďurán, Ivan Bašták. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Bauernschubert, Elisabeth. Deutscher Wetterdienst; AlemaniaFil: Bosilovich, Michael G.. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Fujiwara, Masatomo. Hokkaido University; JapónFil: Hersbach, Hans. European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasting; Reino UnidoFil: Lei, Lili. Nanjing University; ChinaFil: Löhnert, Ulrich. University Of Cologne; AlemaniaFil: Mamnun, Nabir. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; AlemaniaFil: Martin, Cory R.. German Research Centre for Geosciences; AlemaniaFil: Moore, Andrew. California State University; Estados UnidosFil: Niermann, Deborah. Deutscher Wetterdienst; AlemaniaFil: Ruiz, Juan Jose. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Scheck, Leonhard. Deutscher Wetterdienst; Alemani

Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single ‘deterministic’ forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale,which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia

Exploring the Genetic Basis of Variation in Gene Predictions with a Synthetic Association Study

Identifying DNA polymorphisms that affect molecular processes like transcription, splicing, or translation typically requires genotyping and experimentally characterizing tissue from large numbers of individuals, which remains expensive and time consuming. Here we introduce an alternative strategy: a “synthetic association study” in which we computationally predict molecular phenotypes on artificial genomes containing randomly sampled combinations of polymorphic alleles, and perform a classical association study to identify genotypes underlying variation in these computationally predicted annotations. We applied this method to characterize the effects on gene structure of 32,792 single-nucleotide polymorphisms between two strains of the antibiotic producing fungus Penicilium chrysogenum. Although these SNPs represent only 0.1 percent of the nucleotides in the genome, they collectively altered 1.8 percent of predicted gene models between these strains. To determine which SNPs or combinations of SNPs were responsible for this variation, we predicted protein-coding genes in 500 intermediate genomes, each identical except for randomly chosen alleles at each SNP position. Of 30,468 gene models in the genome, 557 varied across these 500 genomes. 226 of these polymorphic gene models (40%) were perfectly correlated with individual SNPs, all of which were within or immediately proximal to the affected gene. The genetic architectures of the other 321 were more complex, with several examples of SNP epistasis that would have been difficult to predict a priori. We expect that many of the SNPs that affect computational gene structure reflect a biologically unrealistic sensitivity of the gene prediction algorithm to sequence changes, and we propose that genome annotation algorithms could be improved by minimizing their sensitivity to natural polymorphisms. However, many of the SNPs we identified are likely to affect transcript structure in vivo, and the synthetic association study approach can be easily generalized to any computed genome annotation to uncover relationships between genotype and important molecular phenotypes

Determination of V_cb from exclusive decays in a relativistic quark model

In the framework of a relativistic covariant Bethe-Salpeter model for the quark-antiquark system we present a renewed determination of the Cabbibo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element $|V_{cb}|$. Complementing an earlier analysis applied to the whole decay spectrum for $B\to D^* e\nu$ we now also employ the ``zero-recoil method'' that uses the end point of the decay spectrum ($\omega=1$) and is suited for heavy-to-heavy transitions. The averaged experimental value extracted from the data at zero recoil, $|V_{cb}|{\cal F}(\omega=1)=0.0343\pm0.0015$, then leads to $|V_{cb}|=0.0360\pm 0.0016$. This value is somewhat larger than the one that uses the whole decay spectrum for the model analysis. We also contrast this result to a nonrelativistic model and to recent experiments on the $B\to D e\nu$ semileptonic decay.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, RevTe