Diffusion of Competing Innovations: The Effects of Network Structure on the Provision of Healthcare

Medical innovations, in the form of new medication or other clinical practices, evolve and spread through health care systems, impacting on the quality and standards of health care provision, which is demonstrably heterogeneous by geography. Our aim is to investigate the potential for the diffusion of innovation to influence health inequality and overall levels of recommended care. We extend existing diffusion of innovation models to produce agent-based simulations that mimic population-wide adoption of new practices by doctors within a network of influence. Using a computational model of network construction in lieu of empirical data about a network, we simulate the diffusion of competing innovations as they enter and proliferate through a state system comprising 24 geo-political regions, 216 facilities and over 77,000 individuals. Results show that stronger clustering within hospitals or geo-political regions is associated with slower adoption amongst smaller and rural facilities. Results of repeated simulation show how the nature of uptake and competition can contribute to low average levels of recommended care within a system that relies on diffusive adoption. We conclude that an increased disparity in adoption rates is associated with high levels of clustering in the network, and the social phenomena of competitive diffusion of innovation potentially contributes to low levels of recommended care.Innovation Diffusion, Scale-Free Networks, Health Policy, Agent-Based Modelling

Channel Blockade in a Two-Path Triple-Quantum-Dot System

Electronic transport through a two-path triple-quantum-dot system with two source leads and one drain is studied. By separating the conductance of the two double dot paths, we are able to observe double dot and triple dot physics in transport and study the interaction between the paths. We observe channel blockade as a result of inter-channel Coulomb interaction. The experimental results are understood with the help of a theoretical model which calculates the parameters of the system, the stability regions of each state and the full dynamical transport in the triple dot resonances.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Effect of spin-orbit interaction on a magnetic impurity in the vicinity of a surface

We propose a new mechanism for surface-induced magnetic anisotropy to explain the thickness-dependence of the Kondo resistivity of thin films of dilute magnetic alloys. The surface anisotropy energy, generated by spin-orbit coupling on the magnetic impurity itself, is an oscillating function of the distance d from the surface and decays as 1/d^2. Numerical estimates based on simple models suggest that this mechanism, unlike its alternatives, gives rise to an effect of the desired order of magnitude.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Level and length of cyclic solar activity during the Maunder minimum as deduced from the active day statistics

The Maunder minimum (MM) of greatly reduced solar activity took place in 1645-1715, but the exact level of sunspot activity is uncertain as based, to a large extent, on historical generic statements of the absence of spots on the Sun. Here we aim, using a conservative approach, to assess the level and length of solar cycle during the Maunder minimum, on the basis of direct historical records by astronomers of that time. A database of the active and inactive days (days with and without recorded sunspots on the solar disc respectively) is constructed for three models of different levels of conservatism (loose ML, optimum MO and strict MS models) regarding generic no-spot records. We have used the active day fraction to estimate the group sunspot number during the MM. A clear cyclic variability is found throughout the MM with peaks at around 1655--1657, 1675, 1684 and 1705, and possibly 1666, with the active day fraction not exceeding 0.2, 0.3 or 0.4 during the core MM, for the three models. Estimated sunspot numbers are found very low in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity. We have found, for the core MM (1650-1700), that: (1) A large fraction of no-spot records, corresponding to the solar meridian observations, may be unreliable in the conventional database. (2) The active day fraction remained low (below 0.3-0.4) throughout the MM, indicating the low level of sunspot activity. (3) The solar cycle appears clearly during the core MM. (4) The length of the solar cycle during the core MM appears $9\pm 1$ years, but there is an uncertainty in that. (5) The magnitude of the sunspot cycle during MM is assessed to be below 5-10 in sunspot numbers; A hypothesis of the high solar cycles during the MM is not confirmed.Comment: Accepted to Astron. Astrophy

Regional Yield Insurance for Arable Crops in EU-27

Replaced with revised version of paper 11/18/08.Area yield insurance, index insurance, yield risk, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty,

Mapping climatic risks in the EU agriculture

Replaced with revised version of paper 11/18/08.Agrometeorological models, climatic risk, European Union, Vegetation indices, Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

Extreme value theory applied to the millennial sunspot number series

In this work, we use two decadal sunspot number series reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide data (14C in tree trunks, SN-14C and 10Be in polar ice, SN-10Be) and the Extreme Value Theory to study variability of solar activity during the last 9 millennia. The peaks-over-threshold technique was used to compute, in particular, the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution for different thresholds. Its negative value implies an upper bound of the extreme SN-10Be and SN-14C time series. The return level for 1000 and 10000 years were estimated leading to values lower than the maximum observed values, expected for the 1000-year, but not for the 10000-year return levels, for both series. A comparison of these results with those obtained using the observed sunspot numbers from telescopic observations during the last four centuries suggest that the main characteristics of solar activity have already been recorded in the telescopic period (from 1610 to nowadays) which covers the full range of solar variability from a Grand minimum to a Grand maximum.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Renormalization Group and Grand Unification with 331 Models

By making a renormalization group analysis we explore the possibility of having a 331 model as the only intermediate gauge group between the standard model and the scale of unification of the three coupling constants. We shall assume that there is no necessarily a group of grand unification at the scale of convergence of the couplings. With this scenario, different 331 models and their corresponding supersymmetric versions are considered, and we find the versions that allow the symmetry breaking described above. Besides, the allowed interval for the 331 symmetry breaking scale, and the behavior of the running coupling constants are obtained. It worths saying that some of the supersymmetric scenarios could be natural frameworks for split supersymmetry. Finally, we look for possible 331 models with a simple group at the grand unification scale, that could fit the symmetry breaking scheme described above.Comment: 18 pages. 3 figures. Some results reinterpreted, a new section and references added. Version to appear in International Journal of Modern Physics

Health inequalities and development plans in Iran: An analysis of the past three decades (1984–2010)

Introduction: Reducing inequalities in health care is one of the main challenges in all countries. In Iran as in other oil-exporting upper middle income countries, we expected to witness fewer inequalities especially in the health sector with the increase in governmental revenues. Methods: This study presents an inequalities assessment of health care expenditures in Iran. We used data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) in Iran from 1984–2010. The analysis included 308,735 urban and 342,532 rural households. Results: The results suggest heightened inequality in health care expenditures in Iran over the past three decades, including an increase in the gap between urban and rural areas. Furthermore, inflation has affected the poor more than the rich. The Kakwani progressivity index in all years is positive, averaging 0.436 in rural and 0.470 in urban areas during the time period of analysis. Compared to inequality in income distribution over the last 30 years, health expenditures continuously show more inequality and progressivity over the same period of time. Conclusions: According to the result of our study, during this period Iran introduced four National Development Plans (NDPs); however, the NDPs failed to provide sustainable strategies for reducing inequalities in health care expenditures. Policies that protect vulnerable groups should be prioritized

Acute febrile illness is associated with Rickettsia spp infection in dogs

BACKGROUND: Rickettsia conorii is transmitted by Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks and causes Mediterranean Spotted Fever (MSF) in humans. Although dogs are considered the natural host of the vector, the clinical and epidemiological significance of R. conorii infection in dogs remains unclear. The aim of this prospective study was to investigate whether Rickettsia infection causes febrile illness in dogs living in areas endemic for human MSF. METHODS: Dogs from southern Italy with acute fever (n = 99) were compared with case–control dogs with normal body temperatures (n = 72). Serology and real-time PCR were performed for Rickettsia spp., Ehrlichia canis, Anaplasma phagocytophilum/A. platys and Leishmania infantum. Conventional PCR was performed for Babesia spp. and Hepatozoon spp. Acute and convalescent antibodies to R. conorii, E. canis and A. phagocytophilum were determined. RESULTS: The seroprevalence rates at first visit for R. conorii, E. canis, A. phagocytophilum and L. infantum were 44.8%, 48.5%, 37.8% and 17.6%, respectively. The seroconversion rates for R. conorii, E. canis and A. phagocytophilum were 20.7%, 14.3% and 8.8%, respectively. The molecular positive rates at first visit for Rickettsia spp., E. canis, A. phagocytophilum, A. platys, L. infantum, Babesia spp. and Hepatozoon spp. were 1.8%, 4.1%, 0%, 2.3%, 11.1%, 2.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Positive PCR for E. canis (7%), Rickettsia spp. (3%), Babesia spp. (4.0%) and Hepatozoon spp. (1.0%) were found only in febrile dogs. The DNA sequences obtained from Rickettsia and Babesia PCRs positive samples were 100% identical to the R. conorii and Babesia vogeli sequences in GenBank®, respectively. Febrile illness was statistically associated with acute and convalescent positive R. conorii antibodies, seroconversion to R. conorii, E. canis positive PCR, and positivity to any tick pathogen PCRs. Fourteen febrile dogs (31.8%) were diagnosed with Rickettsia spp. infection based on seroconversion and/or PCR while only six afebrile dogs (12.5%) seroconverted (P = 0.0248). The most common clinical findings of dogs with Rickettsia infection diagnosed by seroconversion and/or PCR were fever, myalgia, lameness, elevation of C-reactive protein, thrombocytopenia and hypoalbuminemia. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates acute febrile illness associated with Rickettsia infection in dogs living in endemic areas of human MSF based on seroconversion alone or in combination with PCR